I don't want you to get the impression that because I am researching the likes of English League One and English League Two, as well as Northern Ireland Premiership, it does not mean that they are good trading candidates.
Quite simply, there is (excuse my French), feck all else to research during this International Break. I am loathe to actually research these matches. But treat today as an exercise. All matches kick off at 19:45 so will be easily trackable. All leagues are featured at www.soccerstats.com so I hope we can find some of those all-important trading angles.
For what it's worth, Luton not to lose, Bolton (despite the market) look good, and Rochdale to score 3 perhaps would be my key angles today.
19:45 - Newport County v Luton - 2.06 Luton
- 1-1 and 2-1 Luton in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 23rd v 5th in English League Two.
Newport County 100% stats
- Not beaten a top 5 side home or away.
Newport County other stats
- No win in 5 at home.
- Did beat 6th at home but have not beaten another top 18 side at home.
- 11 goals conceded at home last 15 mins.
Luton Town 100% stats
- Scored and conceded and unbeaten away v bottom 4.
- No over 4.5 goals away.
Luton Town other stats
- Unbeaten in 6 away.
- 9 0-0's at halftime away.
- Only 1 loss away v teams below them in the league.
- 17 of 24 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- Both teams could score today and Luton not lose. That would be the angle I take from this match.
- With 9 0-0's at halftime away, Luton may not score first half but have a very very strong scoring bias 2nd half so note that.
- If Newport lead coming into the 75th minute, lay them.
19:45 - Morecambe v Accrington - 2.16 Accrington
- 2-2 and 2-3 Morecambe in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 15th v 16th in English League Two.
Morecambe 100% stats
- No draw at home v 17th and higher in the league.
Morecambe other stats
- 4 consecutive defeats.
- 3 losses in 4 home matches.
- Only 1 0-0.
- 15 goals conceded last 1/2 hour at home.
Accrington other stats
- Unbeaten in 8 matches.
- 3 clean sheets last 4 matches.
- On most recent form you'd have to be with Accrington with 3 clean sheets in 4 matches and unbeaten in 8 matches. Momentum?
- The form of these 2 is all over the shop. Winning and losing against teams throughout the league and showing no patterns.
19:45 - Oxford Utd v Bolton - 2.62 Oxford Utd
- 0-2 Oxford in the most recent head to head.
- This is 9th v 2nd in English League One. A win goes someway to securing Bolton an automatic promotion spot.
Oxford other stats
- No draw in 5 at home and 13 overall.
- 3 defeats in their last 4 at home.
- Have beaten Bolton this year and 4th and 5th at home. Lost 2-3 to 1st at home. Suggests a competitive league.
Bolton 100% stats
- No away 0-0.
- All 4 away defeats v teams below them in the league were 1-0.
Bolton other stats
- 3 consecutive wins.
- Only 1 defeat in 10 was v the league leaders.
- 2-0-4-4 scored in last 4 aways. Failed to score v league leaders.
- 1-0 defeats away v 10th, 11th, 12th.
- It is no wonder I don't visit these lower leagues too often. They look competitive.
- Bolton have the recent momentum (that word again) and having scored 10 goals in their last 4 aways may simply outgun Oxford.
- If Bolton are to lose it is likely to be 1-0. If they score they are unlikely to lose!
- The market I must say is bizarre. 2.62 the favourite. Either illiquid at time of writing or the match is closer than I imagine - the joys of the lower leagues!
19:45 - Coventry v Port Vale - 2.28 Coventry
- 0-2 Coventry in the most recent head to head.
- This is 24th v 21st in English League One.
Coventry 100% stats
- No over 4.5 goals at home.
Coventry other stats
- Only 1 win since 12th November.
- Failed to score last 4 matches.
- 8 defeats, a draw and a win, last 10 home matches.
- Only 1 defeat at home v bottom 7 includes 3 0-0's.
Port Vale other stats
- Failed to score away v 19th and lower.
- I will back 0-0 pre match. It has a real chance of coming in. I tend to trade out at halftime if lucky enough to see a 0-0 then.
19:45 - Rochdale v Millwall - 2.62 Rochdale
- 2-3 Rochdale in the previous head to head.
- This is 10th v 7th in English League One.
Rochdale 100% stats
- Unbeaten at home v top 8 teams.
Rochdale other stats
- Only 1 win in 11 came at home last match.
- 6-4-6-4-3-5 total goals in recent matches. At least one team scored 3+ goals in 4 of those matches.
- 3-3-4 scored last 4 home matches.
Millwall 100% stats
Millwall other stats
- Unbeaten in 15.
- 8 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 4 draws last 5 away matches.
- Only 1 win away v top 13 sides.
- Now I am no League One expert as you can imagine but I would not be lured in by Millwall's unbeaten run. 4 draws in 5 aways and conceding 3 away v 6th and 7th, and 5 away v 12th suggests a Rochdale side unbeaten at home v top 8 could score 3 as they have done in recent home matches and v 1st, 5th and 6th at home.
- 3-1, 3-2, 3-3 my possibles today. I would certainly lay Millwall if Millwall scored first.
19:45 - Livingston v Stenhousemuir - 1.55 Livingston
- Livingston have scored 4 goals in each of the last 2 head to heads.
- This is top v bottom in Scottish League One.
Livingston other stats
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Only 1 0-0.
- Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
Stenhousemuir 100% stats
Stenhousemuir other stats
- No win in 5 away.
- Conceded in their last 7 overall and last 5 away matches.
- Another reason I do not tend to research these leagues is the sparse data.
- It does seem obvious here though that Livingston should win and are capable of 4 goals at least. If 0-0 for a while, back 3-0, 3-1 and any other home score.
- Because of the lack of stats I will not be researching the other Scottish League One matches. I researched this one as it was top v bottom.