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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, February 21, 2023

With a dearth of researchable matches coming up on Wednesday and Thursday, I will do a deep dive spreadsheet today, and share the raw data feed too. I have been up late last 2 nights, so if finding insomnia my friend tonight, I can follow these matches on Telegram for you. Usually, I bow out at 19:45 kick offs given the negative time difference. I will do a review/preview video - a couple of readable matches yesterday, how did you get on your own?

UEFA Champions League

  • Research is futile in such important one-off matches. In-play stats or not at all. www.soccer24.com has an excellent free preview of these matches but please make sure you read the preview before kick-off as it will disappear after.

20:00 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Napoli - 2.15 Napoli

20:00 - Liverpool v Real Madrid - 2.30 Liverpool

English Championship

19:45 - Blackburn v Blackpool - 1.95 Blackburn

Blackburn - 7th

  • 4 consecutive draws ended with a 1-0 win last match. 3 of those prior scorelines were 1-1 so Blackburn may be vulnerable to conceding if they keep topping out at a single goal.
  • They have failed to score that 2nd goal in 9 consecutive matches.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 0-1 win last head-to-head.
  • 5 wins, a 0-1 loss and a 0-0 at home v 17th and lower.
  • 10/13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Blackpool - 23rd

  • Only 1 win in 15 came last match, 1-0 at home.
  • In the last 15 matches, Blackpool have scored 2 goals just once.
  • 3 consecutive away losses.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side away and threaten conceding 2/3 goals.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are struggling for that 2nd goal. Under 2.5 goals an angle IF this pattern continues.
  • Blackburn will fancy it today with their 5 wins, 0-1 loss (insurance play if Blackpool score first?), and 0-0  v 17th and lower.
  • Do please acknowledge the fact that for Blackpool it's crunch time. Getting nearer to season end.

19:45 - Millwall v Burnley - 2.37 Burnley

  • DRT live chat attendee Andy is salivating for yet another Burnley win. Andy, and everybody else, please note the market. 2.37 the favourite suggests this is a toughie. I will not research the match. Burnley did score 2nd half goals in their most recent win. They are league leaders and comfortably lead but there are plenty of matches remaining. Important too for Millwall who are 7th and breathing down the Promotion play-off places. Hence I suppose the odds. These 2 have huge motivation.

19:45 - Norwich v Birmingham - 1.70 Norwich

Norwich - 9th

  • A worrying 6-match winless home run ended with a 3-1 win v Hull City latest.
  • 0-0 last match.
  • Conceded last 6 at home.
  • 1-2 win last head-to-head.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 10th and lower was a 2-3.
  • v 13th and lower at home, both teams to score has come in , in 7/8 matches.
  • 8 goals conceded at home last 15 mins.

Birmingham - 18th

  • 7 losses in 9 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 away.
  • No draw in 10 and in 4 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 away.
  • No win v the top 9.
  • 10 goals conceded away 16th-30th minute.

Conclusions

  • Norwich's poor home run ended last match, and may continue a mini-revival this match IF Norwich's form v 10th and lower at home is replicated today. Both teams to score is an uncomfortable Norwich habit v 13th and lower too so prepare for that.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • Brum have not beaten the top 9 but do note a cluster of wins away v 10th, 12th, 13th and 14th which might signal some bite today.
  • Norwich may be difficult to trust after that woeful recent winless run at home.
  • Lay any late 0-0. 0-0 last match Norwich should be a sequence to end (you do get the very rare run a la Schalke with 4 consecutive 0-0's now).

19:45 - Rotherham v Sunderland - 2.00 Sunderland

Rotherham - 21st

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches.
  • Failed to score last 2 at home.
  • 3-0 loss last head-to-head.
  • 3/3 draws at home v the top 7.
  • Wins at home tend to come v 16th and lower.

Sunderland - 6th

  • Newly promoted and starting to click.
  • Only 2 losses in 13 matches.
  • 3 wins and 2 1-1 draws last 5 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 away, scoring in those 8 away - scored last 13 overall.
  • Emphatic 7 wins and a draw away v 15th and lower.
  • 18/26 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Newly promoted sides can sink but Sunderland are swimming. Top 6, starting to click, 3 wins in 5, no defeat 8 away, scored last 13, emphatic winning form v 15th and lower.
  • The draw seems best case scenario for Rotherham whose home wins tend to come v fellow strugglers.

19:45 - Swansea v Stoke - 2.20 Swansea

  • Snapshot research as 2.20 the favourite is nudging towards low priority.
  • Swans conceded last 7. Both teams to score last 3 at home; 1-1 last head-to-head.
  • 12th v 19th, 5 wins, a 3-4 loss and 2-2, all matches seeing the swans score 2+ goals at home v 13th and lower.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats for Stoke; conceded last 6 away.
  • Have a cluster of away wins v 13th, 14th, 15th.
  • Conclusions? Caution says the market. I am really taken by the Swans 2+ goal home-winning form v 13th and lower (play 19th today). Stoke do have those wins v teams around Swans - is that what is keeping Swansea's odds higher than their form v 13th and lower would suggest?

English League 1

19:45 - Fleetwood v Cambridge - 2.05 Fleetwood

Fleetwood - 16th

  • 2 wins and a 0-0 last 3.
  • 5 losses in a row at home ended with a win last home match.
  • 0-0 last match.
  • No draw in 7 at home.
  • Not met Cambridge yet this season.
  • Poor home form but 0-0, 3-0 home win, 1-2 away win, 1-1 away, 1-1 home v 19th and lower.
  • 8 goals conceded at home last 15 mins.

Cambridge - 22nd

  • Only 4 wins since 13th September.
  • No win in 7 away.
  • Only 2 away wins v 7th and 23rd saw both teams score - wins were one-goal-in-it.

Conclusions

  • Both teams at the wrong end of the table. Fleetwood's home form is fragile. Unbeaten v 19th and lower, but hardly jaw-dropping performances.
  • Cambridge look logically opposable with only 4 wins since 13th September.

19:45 - Morecambe v Port Vale - 2.15 Port Vale

  • Only 1 win in 6 Morecambe. Only 1 win in 8 PortVale came last match.
  • Morecambe failed to score in 3/4 recently.  Conceded last 7 overall.
  • 23rd v 12th, Morecambe have a surprisingly good record at home v 5th - 20th. Only 1 loss in 11.
  • 1-0 loss Morecambe last head-to-head.
  • Morecambe have scored 10 goals last 15 mins at home.
  • 2/2 wins away for Portvale v the bottom 3  0-1 and 1-3.
  • Angles? I cannot discount old Eric. Bring me sunshine v 5th-20th so could put in a good effort at home. Port Vale's sampled form v bottom 3 is solid - 2/2 wins.
  • I cannot discount Morecambe.

English League 2

19:45 - Grimsby v Harrogate - 1.91 Grimsby

Grimsby - 16th

  • No draw in 10 and in 4 at home.
  • 2-1 loss last head-to-head.
  • 1-1 at home v 20th and 3-0 at home v 23rd.
  • 11/16 goals conceded at home first half.

Harrogate  -21st

  • Loss, Draw, Draw recently.
  • All of their best work tends to come v 20th and lower - 100% losing run away v 8th-18th.
  • 12/16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw.
  • Harrogate's worrying 100% losses v 8th-18th is what I call 'embedded form'. It naturally leads us towards Grim Grimsby who at least are unbeaten in their small sample v 20th and lower at home.

19:45 - Hartlepool v Newport - 2.20 Newport

  • I am sorry, but not even I can summon the willpower to research 2.20 the favourite in English League 2. In-play stats or not at all.

19:45 - Rochdale v Stockport - 1.80 Stockport

Rochdale - 24th

  • 6 losses and a draw last 7 matches.
  • No win in 8 at home, conceding in all.
  • 3 consecutive under 2.5 goals at home might be a reaction to recent form?
  • Not met Stockport this season - only 1 home win v the top 10 was a 1-0. In fact Rochdale have scored 0-0-1-0-1 v the top 7. Losses have only been 0-1 so expect firm resistance.

Stockport - 6th

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 2 losses since 3rd December were 1-0 only.
  • 1-2 win, 1-3 win, 0-5 win, 3-2 loss away v 19th and lower.
  • 11/16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Stockport's odds look very appealing - a tendency to score and concede v 19th and lower but tending to come out in a win, and with 2+ goals scored consistently, Stockport seem to have the measure of strugglers. First head-to-head so no gauge. Stockport come into this in electric form, scoring 2+ goals, contrast with 6 losses and a draw last 7 Rochdale.

19:45 - Walsall v Crewe - 1.75 Walsall

Walsall - 14th

  • Only 3 losses since 1st October.
  • 5 draws and a loss last 6 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home draws.
  • 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals.
  • Conceded last 5 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 9/14 at home.
  • Another match where there is no seasonal head-to-head.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 18th and lower.
  • 8 goals conceded at home last 15 mins.

Crewe - 17th

  • Unbeaten in 3, scoring 2 goals in each. 2 of the scorelines were 2-2.
  • 3 consecutive away score draws.
  • Only 2 wins in 12 came at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 away.
  • Only 1 away win v the top 15 was a 0-1. No 2nd goal scored in these matches by Crewe.
  • 7 1-0 defeats away at halftime.

Conclusions

  • Crewe's failure to score a 2nd goal away v the top 15 suggests another 0-1 win is their most likely scoreline.
  • Walsall's recent form is not all that, but an unbeaten run v 18th and lower may see them through v 17th.