Champions League is better left, from my perspective, to the second legs. Do not get drawn into high profile matches just because you know the names and the competitions. If you don't have an angle, or an angle does not appear in-play, do not be tempted! Think Basel and Lyon as your templates for the kind of kerching trades we are interested in.
There has been a tendency towards goals in first leg matches where I'd have ordinarily thought it would be tight on account of the away goals. So I really don't know what to expect and cannot get a strong trading angle into each match. Then there's the English championship. I would be avoiding the QPR match and looking more at the other 3 matches which seem to have strong angles.
19:45 - Manchester City v Monaco - 1.64 Man City
19:45 - Bayer Leverkusen v Atl Madrid - 2.52 Madrid
- The consensus seems to be that these Champions League matches are best tackled either with in-play stats or in the second legs where we will have clear indications as to which teams need to do what.
- As things stand, I will draw your attention to Monacos absolutely stunning scoring record in the French Ligue 1, as well as Manchester Citys unsteady season under Pep Gladioli. Monaco come alive at home, scoring 5 goals in 2 matches. Away they have win, drawn and lost in their last 3.
- City have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches and are on a run of 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
- Leverkusen I would have seen as the weakest link and a team who it is a surprise to see so deep in the Champions League.
- Draws have largely been Leverkusens saving grace. 4 draws and wins v Tottenham and Monaco.
- 2 consecutive home clean sheets for Leverkusen.
- 4 wins to nil, a 2-1 win and a 0-1 loss for Atl Madrid. We know where their strength lies!
- 0-1, 0-1, 1-0 loss to Bayern away for Atl Madrid.
- I have lumped these 2 together. Remember the away goal counts as extra within the aggregate score over 2 legs.
- What would I take from the above? I would be more prone to focus on Bayer v Atl Madrid and a likely 0-1 or 0-0 here. I would back 0-0 pre match.But then matches have been goal laden in these first legs last week!
- City I simply cannot get a handle on and would play 2nd leg in that match.
19:45 - QPR v Wigan - 2.46 QPR
QPR 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- 1 goals max scored at home v teams 14th and lower. Wigan are 22nd.
QPR other stats
- Only 5 clean sheets.
- Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
- Scored and conceded last 4 at home - conceded last 9 at home.
Wigan 100% stats
- All away defeats were by a single goal.
- An unappettising Championship match.
- Both sides are struggling. I would lay QPR if they scored first but then how can we trust Wigan?
19:45 - Sheff Wed v Brentford - 1.94 Sheff Wed
Sheff Wed 100% stats
- Sheff Wed have caught my eye from an in-play stats perspective in the last weekend so this might be a match to shortlist tonight in what is a barren night for trading angles.
- No wonder they catch they eye. They are 6th in the league.
- Unbeaten at home v 14th and lower - Brentford are 15th.
Sheff Wed other stats
- Only 2 defeats in 16 matches.
- 4 consecutive wins.
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- All wins bar a 0-0 at home v 14th and lower.
- 10 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.
Brentford 100% stats
- All defeats away v 2nd to 10th inclusive. Sheff Wed are 6th.
Brentford other stats
- 3-3-2-2 scored in their last 4 matches and they only won 1, drew 1, and lost 2!!
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score.
- Sheff Wed should not be losing today. Let's hope Brentford continue to score 2 or 3 goals as then well have some trading action if we stick to the conclusion that Wed should not lose.
- Sheff Wed are late goal scorers too so if they are in trouble late on (75th+ minute), then have faith that they can score late goals to get them out.
19:45 - Derby v Burton - 1.76 Derby
Derby 100% stats
- No home match with exactly 4 goals.
Derby other stats
- A touch of the Brentfords! Derby have scored 3 goals in each of their last 2 matches without winning.
- 3-1-3-3 goals before halftime in their last 4 matches.
- 9 0-0s at halftime at home.
- Only 1 loss at home v teams 14th and lower - Burton are 20th.
Burton 100% stats
- Not beaten a top 15 team away and Derby are 11th.
- Not won to nil away.
Burton other stats
- No draw in 14 matches.
- Conceded in their last 16 matches and last 10 away matches.
- 11 goals conceded away last 15 mins.
- Derby should not lose today on form.
- Lay any late draw as Burton keep avoiding them.
- Derby should score today.
- Watch out for very late goal action, particularly Burton conceding.
- I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market given Derbys recent matches.
19:45 - Huddersfield v Reading - 1.87 Huddersfield
- 2 top 4 sides may not be ideal trading material. These kinds of fixtures can see teams cancel each other out. We shall see.
Huddersfield 100% stats
- No 0-0.
- Conceded 1 goal in each of the 4 matches played v top 9 teams at home.
Huddersfield other stats
- Failed to score in only 5 matches.
- 10 wins, a draw and a loss in their last 12 matches.
- 5 consecutive wins.
- No draw home or away v top 13 teams.
- Only 2 home defeats.
- Have had 7 home 2-1 wins.
Reading 100% stats
- No away 0-0.
- 3 defeats in 3 matches played away v top 8 sides.
- Huddersfield have had so many 2-1 wins at home that I would have to lay Reading if Reading scored first.
- Although both sides are top 4, Reading have 3 out of 3 defeats away v top 8 and that might do for them today against a home side with 5 consecutive wins now.
- I would lay any late draw given how Huddersfield avoid them v top teams.
- Strong 2nd half goals scoring and conceding bias for Reading so fear not a 0-0 at halftime.