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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 20, 2017

There is no football today so I will focus on tennis. Yesterday there were only a handful of matches of interest and, bar Witthoeft, I called the others well. Witthoeft? I did not research but still traded. Lesson learned! There are 3 main events today and some of the big guns are out which makes for good potential trading. My internet is struggling today. I hope it is temporary as there is plenty of tennis which appeals. I will be tweeting through the day on the strongest angles.

TENNIS

AEGON

Kokkanikis v Raonic - 1.09 Raonic

  • Loss,Win, Loss for Kokkanikis on his return to the ATP tour.
  • My argument with Kokkanikis? His opponents do not know what to expect. It worked as he won the first set v Nishikori. He also beat Youzhny. He did lose in 2 sets to Medvedev (2nd set was a tie breaker).
  • Raonic was a finalist at Queens and Wimbledon last year so is rock solid on grass.
  • We expect Milos to win but I must lay him at 1.10 in case he has trouble 'reading; Kokkanikis.

Steve Johnson v Stefan Kozlov - 1.4 Steve

  • 25th v 147th.
  • Kozlov won on grass in 2016, Steve won in 2017 on hard.
  • Steve Johnson has been a battler in his recent matches. 5 and 4 sets in the French Open, tie breaker middle set v Thiem.
  • 2 3 setters already this grass court season. Kozlov has been largely a Challenger player.
  • Quite simply on Johnson's recent form, I must lay Kozlov if Koz wins the first set. Similarly, any decent rise in Steve's odds should be backed. He has done the job for us recently.

Julien Benneteau v James Ward - 1.27 Benneteau

  • 106th v 624th. Note Ward is a Brit in England and may get a Heather Watson-like boost.
  • 6-2-6-2 when these 2 met in 2014 to Julien.
  • Ward is almost exclusively a Challenger player. He tends to go through qualifying in order to get to main ATP and Grand Slam events.
  • Benneteau has gone through qualifying to get to Queens.
  • He reached the quarter finals in Germany.
  • First round Aegon and 2nd round Wimbledon for Benneteau last year on grass. Hardly inspires confidence.
  • First round, First round, First round Ward last year on grass.
  • Benneteau should be winning. Our hope is Ward gets that home boost so we can back Julien at reasonable odds. I would be happy with 1.6.

Feliciano Lopez v Stan Wawrinka - 1.67 Stan

  • 40th v 3rd.
  • The great thing about researching consistently is that you get to know a player. Lopez on grass is very good. Stan can, like Kyrgios, be a frustrating bottler. He has fewer negatives than our pal Nick.
  • Last head to head 2014 on grass won by Stan, with 2 tie breakers in a 3-setter.
  • Lopez reached the final in Stuttgart. His last 4 matches were 3 setters which suggests he may have to win the hard route i.e. No 2-0.
  • Stan reached the final in France and in Geneva on clay.
  • First Round, First Round, Third Round Wimbledon last year for Lopez.
  • Last year, first round Aegon for Stan and Second round Wimbledon.
  • I think I will lay Stan if he wins the first set. I would be keen to lay Stan at odds of 1.2. Lopez looks very competitive on grass this year.
  • A 3-setter?

Andy Murray v Aljaz Bedene - 1.07 Murray

  • 1st v 68th.
  • Straight sets for Murray this time last year in Queens.
  • It should be straight sets for Andy but no harm in laying him at 1.08 in his first grass court match this season.

Basilashvili v Muller - 1.25 Muller

  • 61st v 28th.
  • Muller won easily on hard in 2016 in the solitary head to head.
  • Last year Basil could not get out of the qualifiers for his 3 grass court tournaments.
  • Muller has just won on Grass in the Ricoh Open and has won all 4 of his last tie breakers.
  • It seems that Muller has the momentum here to continue winning. Basil is hard to read so may surprise but this match should be Muller's.

GERRY WEBER

Kei Nishikori v Fernando Verdasco - 1.48 Nishi

  • Please read yesterday's research. Basically, Verdasco tends to take a set v Nishikori, albeit in defeat.

Roberto Bautista Agut v Carlos Berlocq - 1.1 Agut

  • 18th v 62nd.
  • Last head to head was 2013.
  • Quarter Finals in Aegon last year and Third Round Wimbledon last year for Agut.
  • It has taken a good one to beat Agut recently such as Nadal, Djokovic, Karlovic and Zverev.
  • Berlocq was last at Wimbledon in 2014 so tough to evaluate any grass court form.
  • Berlocq it seems is happier on other surfaces.
  • Agut should win, having the greater grass court experience against a South American happier on home surfaces. Let's hope the 1.1 odds rise to be backable.

Lukas Lacko v Mischa Zverev - 1.42 Zverev

  • 103rd v 35th.
  • Last head to heads 2013 so dismissed.
  • Lacko has won 2 qualifiers to get here to Halle.
  • In Stuttgart, Lacko went through qualifiers and went out in the round of 32.
  • Zverev reached the semi finals in Stuttgart, losing to solid yardstick on grass, Feliciano Lopez.
  • The highlight for Lacko on grass last year was the beating of Ivo Karlovic.
  • Last year Zverev only managed qualifiers to Aegon and Wimbledon.
  • I have a feeling that this could be a keenly fought contest. I would back Zverev if his odds get to evens or thereabouts. His Stuttgart form is good but Lacko does have something on grass.

Robin Haase v David Ferrer - 1.84 Haase

  • 46th v 32rd. Ferrer used to be a top 10 stalwart and is coming to the end of his career. He is still an ultra reliable player. Compared to Nick Kyrgios, Ferrer is on another level. You get 100% with a fully fit Ferrer.
  • Haase won in Aukland this year in 3 sets, losing the first set and with the last set a tie breaker so it was not an overwhelming win.
  • Haase lost to Medvedev in a recent German grass tournament.
  • Ferrer lost to solid yardstick Lopez in 5 sets in the French Open. He lost twice to kei Nishikori recently but should be ultra competitive outside of the top 20.
  • I will assume a 100% Ferrer today and lay Haase if Haase wins the first set. I would foresee a 3-setter today which suggests laying the first set winner (ideal Haase wins first set).

Paolo Lorenzi v Alexander Zverev - 1.06 Alex

  • 38th v 21st.
  • No head to heads.
  • Lorenzi lost recently to Pouille, Djere, Anderson and Isner. Alex should be far too good.
  • Alex was a semi-finalist in Germany.
  • Lorenzi is a first or second round player on grass. Limited form.
  • Alex had a brilliant clay court season.
  • Alex was a finalist in Halle and 3rd round Wimbledon last year.
  • UNlikely we will see Alex worried. I would be happy backing him at 1.3 or higher here today.

WTA Birmingham

Hibino v Siniakova - 1.31 Siniakova

  • 80th v 38th.
  • No head to hedas.
  • Hibino a relative unknown to me.
  • Siniakova has been beaten by some big names recently - Strycova who we know and who won easily yesterday; Kerber (world number 1); Kuznetszova; Alexandrova.
  • 2nd round, first round, first round for Hibino in last year's grass court tournaments.
  • Last year, Siniakova went through the qualifiers and then lasted the first round in Birmingham, and reached 3rd round Wimbledon.
  • Not a match I am taken with. There is that 'unknown' v Hibino - remember it is unrealistic to think we can get a trading angle in every match on the coupon.

Tereza Smitkova v Petra Kvitova - 1.2 Petra

  • 166th v 15th.
  • 2015 straight sets Petra win on hard.
  • Smitkova has had 2 3-setters in qualifiers and immediately that leads me to want to oppose her if she wins the first set against a top 20 player.
  • No grass court play this year for Petra.
  • Last year, Smitkova could not get out of qualifiers for Wimbledon.
  • Petra beat Konta last year in England and was seeded for Wimbledon.
  • Petra should be winning here. The fact Tereza has 2 3-setters in qualifying tells me she should not win 2-0 if winning the first set.

Lesia Tsurenko v Johanna Konta - 1.49 Konta

  • 42nd v 7th.
  • Konta won the 2016 head to head in 2 sets. The first set was a tie breaker.
  • Konta was a finalist in Nottingham, losing the final to Vekic. This is the 2nd high profile match in which Konta won the first set but lost the next 2.1-6 v Hseih in the French open, 2-6 v vekic in the Final in Notts.
  • Tsurenko reached the quarters in Germany.
  • Konta's odds have been at around the 1.5 mark consistently in Nottingham. When priced at these odds, she won 2-0, the 2nd set 7-5. So I would lay Konta speculatively if she wins the first set, not in the hope that Lesia will win the 2nd set, but in the hope that Lesia HINTS at winning the second set.

Su-Wei Hsieh v Daria Gavrilova - 1.59 Daria

  • I like Hsieh ever since she came back from 1-6 down to beat Konta in the French Open. This is the kind of bite you want from a player and gives us a potential angle. Daria may be layable if Daria wins the first set.
  • 101st v 27th.
  • Gavrilova won in 3 sets in a 2015 hard court head to head.
  • Hsieh lost to 28th seed Lucie Safarova in Nottingham in 3 sets. She has gone through qualifying to get here.
  • 2nd round, 1st round last year for Hsieh on grass.
  • Gavrilova was good on grass albeit went out first round in the French Open.
  • 3 consecutive second rounds on Grass for Daria last year. She did play some top 20 players last year so an unlucky round.
  • I like Hsieh. I will lay Daria if Daria wins first set. I like Hsieh's fight.

Kristina Mladenovic v Ying-Ying Duan - 1.17 Kristina

  • 19th v 60th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Solid clay court season for Kristina, final in Madrid, quarters in the French Open.Quarters on grass in the Ricoh Open.
  • Final, First Round, Quarter Final Kristina on grass last year.She lasted only 1 round Wimbledon.
  • Second round on grass for Duan last year.
  • I don't know Duan too well so faith in the market and Kristina winning. React if Kristina's odds rise significantly.

Mallorca Open

Jelena Jankovic v Caroline Garcia - 1.48 Garcia

  • 55th v 24th.
  • Head to heads from 2015.
  • 10 losses and 3 wins in her last 13 for Jankovic makes her lay material if she wins first set.
  • Garcia reached the quarters in France and had to battle a couple of matches there which further emphasises my want to lay Jelena at shorter odds.
  • Jankovic was a semi finalist on grass at Mallorca last year. She beat 2 qualifiers to get to the semis so arguably an easy route.
  • Garcia won in Mallorca last year and lasted only 2 rounds at Wimbledon.
  • This could be competitive but a definite bias towards Garcia.

Kirsten Flipkens v Mandy Minella - 1.19 Flipkens

  • 93rd v 68th and strong fav is the higher ranked player.
  • 3-0 Flipkens in head to heads, winning in 2017 on clay in 2017.
  • Flipkens went through qualifiers to get here.
  • Win Loss, Win Loss, Win Loss last 3 tournaments for Flipkens.
  • Flipkens is a semi finalist from Mallorca last year.
  • Minella only lasted the qualifiers for Mallorca last year.
  • She went through qualifying for Wimbledon last year.
  • Flipkens should be the winner on form.

Schiavone v Bouchard - 1.56 Bouchard

  • 102nd v 59th.
  • 2 finals recently for Schiavone in Bogota and Marrakesh.
  • Straight losses in Madrid and the French Open.
  • I like Schiavone. She is another battler. Clearly on the decline but she should be competitive against out-of-form players.
  • First, First, First , First, First, First, Second rounds for Schiavone last year on grass. Not her best surface.
  • Bouchard did not play on grass last year. She reached the 3rd round Wimbledon.
  • I would lay Bouchard today if Bouch wins the first set. Schiavone can always be competitive against players not at their best.