Betis was the most straightforward trade yesterday, concede first, win 2-1. Some select clay court tennis matches researched today. I cannot possibly call all matches correctly. I tend to work with players I know well and via the odds (sub 1.5 shots get special attention). Also top 10 and top 20 players are favoured. We do have a lot of players today ranked 50th+ I'll share any screenshots via twitter@drtclub.
19:45 - Real Madrid v Bayern Munich - 2.22 Real Madrid
- 1-2 Real Madrid in the first leg. Bayern scored first.
- A 0-1 will not do for Bayern Munich today because Real Madrid have 2 away goals.
- I do not have an angle into this match. I suppose goals are expected out of Bayern need more than anything. Bayern Munich require 2 goals at least. They will go through in the simplest way with a 0-2.
- Back over 2.5 goals if the match is 0-0 after 20 minutes.
ATP Munich Tennis - Clay
Yannick Maden v Yuichi Sugita - 1.65 Maden
- 148th v 40th.
- Maden is a German in Germany and the market thinks that, despite the rankings differential, this could swing the match Maden's way.
- Sugita is in poor form, or he is coincidentally meeting good players in the first rounds of matches. He has lasted only one round in his last 5 tournaments.
- Maden reached the quarter finals in Budapest on clay.
- I would take on Sugita if he won the first set. He has had a few 3 setters of late, albeit in defeat.
Daniel Masur v Jan-Lennard Struff - 1.22 Struff
- 342nd v 53rd. Both players are German.
- Struff won in 2 sets at this event last year.
- Masur has been a Challenger Tour player.
- Good recent run for Struff v Monte Carlo and Budapest on clay and that for me is enough to side with a Struff win. Likely a 2-0 set betting so we are unlikely to get any value.
Philipp Kohlschreiber v Ivo Karlovic - 1.44 Kohlschreiber
- The Germans are out in force.
- 29th v 80th here.
- Kohlschreiber has won the last 2 head to heads, coincidentally in Germany.
- For me we are likely to see an Ivo service game which could see a tie breaker first set. That would suggest Kohlschreiber's odds will rise in play. He would be backable at higher odds.We have consistently seen tie breakers between these 2.
- I will side with Kohlschreiber today. Ivo may well nick a set as is his wont with that service game but Kohl should see it through in Germany.
Mischa Zverev v Andreas Haider-Maurer - 1.23 Zverev
- 33rd v 445th and Zverev is another German.
- Both players lasted only 1 match in Barcelona. Poor stuff. I do though like Zverev's win over high ranked Lucas Pouille in Monte Carlo.
- Zverev is not as consistent as his more famous brother but the rankings difference and Zverev's recent Monte Carlo performance should see him win. Back him if you can at higher odds in play.
Mirza Basic v Gael Monfils - 1.29 Monfils
- 140th v 46th.
- Slight concerns here with Monfils who retired in Indian Wells -his last tournament. Is there an injury niggle? If you want to gamble on a niggle perhaps affecting performance, he is layable at 1.3 odds right off the bat.
- Monfils is good on clay when fully fit. Quarter Final, Semi-Final and Quarter Final in a run of 3 tournaments in 2017.
Marton Fucsovics v Guido Pella - 1.57 Pella
- 85th v 64th.
- 3 setter Marton win in 2017's sole head to head.
- No angles for me here. The rankings are too tight too.
Maximilian Marterer v Dustin Brown - 1.45 Marterer
- 2 Germans here.
- 90th v 125th. I think this could be tighter than the odds suggest.
- No head to heads.
- 3 consecutive 3 setters for Dustin Brown.
- The value for me would be in laying Marterer at the off, or better yet if Marterer wins the first set. We are likely to see a fully wound up Dustin Brown on home soil. The rankings are tight.
Fabio Fognini v Marco Cecchinato - 1.52 Fognini
- Foggy - throws the toys out of the pram. I am waiting for Rome where he will excel as he did last year.
- 27th v 110th.
- Both Italians.
- Foggy has tended to win the head to heads. The last one 2017 saw 2nd set tie breaker and that may be a pattern for 2 players who may know each other well.
- Cecchinato had an excellent Budapest on clay - he won the tournament. For me, Foggy's odds are too short on that basis.I would be happy to lay Foggy as short as I could here.
Casper Ruud v Marius Copil - 1.97 Copil
- When you see odds like this, it suggests laying the first set winner.
WTA Prague - Clay
Mona Barthel v Antonia Lottner - 1.54 Barthel
- 47th v 155th.
- Both Germans.
- Lottner has failed to get out of qualifiers in 5 of their last 7 tournaments.
- Little to work with for me.
Shuai Zhang v Stefanie Voegele - 1.47 Voegele
Tereza Smitkova v Petra Kvitova - 1.08 Kvitova
- 239th v 29th. 2 Czechs.
- Petra has tended to win 2-0 in head to heads.
- Smitkova is a Challenger Tour player.
- Likely we see 2-0 Kvitova today but as we are in a Czech tournament, I would lay Petra at 1.09 odds here. Unlikely we see a return but Smitkova might play above her ranking at home.
Aliaksandra Sasnovich v Kristyna Pliskova - 1.83 Pliskova
- 88th v 62nd. The other Pliskova is Czech at home.
- 5 3 setters and a tie breaker 2-0 win for Sas suggests we lay Sas if she wins the first set.
Jasmine Paolini v Daria Kasatkina - 1.17 Kasatkina
- A final at Indian Wells and Quarters at Charleston sees Daria in good form.
- A really good 2018 on hard for Daria should really see a 2-0 set win.
ATP Istanbul - Clay
Radu Albot v Rogerio Dutra Silva - 1.5 Silva
- 87th v 102nd.
- Silva has won the 2 head to heads, in 3 sets.
- No strong angles here. Perhaps a 3 setter based on past history?
Nikoloz Basilashvili v Jeremy Chardy - 1.53 Chardy
- 59th v 78th.
- 3 consecutive clay quarter finals for Basil -not fawlty on this surface.
- Chardy's clay form is not outstanding.
- Value? Laying Chardy as first set winner - odds on already, his odds will be nice and short and remember Basil has solid recent clay form.
John Millman v Dusan Lajovic - 1.63 Lajovic
- 128th v 75th and immediately for me, Lajovic's odds are too short.
- Millman had an excellent Budapest tournament on clay , losing in the Final.In the quarter finals and semi finals he lost the first set and won the next 2.
- That is my angle today. A hope that Millman continues his excellent recent momentum on clay and brings us a 3 setter.
Malek Jaziri v Marsel Ilhan - 1.19 Jaziri
- 98th v 308th.
- All 3 Jaziri wins in head to heads have been 3 setters.
- I would seek value in laying Jaziri if he wins the first set. Short odds and a pattern of conceding the 2nd set v Ilhan.
- In fact, lay the first set winner.
ATP Estoril - Clay
Roberto Carballes Baena v Bjorn Fratangelo - 1.66 Baena
Joao Domingues v Simone Bolelli - 1.4 Bolelli
- 170th v 172nd. Joao is a Portugeuse player in Portugal.
- Tight rankings.Bolelli has reached 2 recent clay finals on the Challenger Tour.
- No strong angles. The value is in laying Bolelli if first set winner. Tight rankings and Joao is a Portugeuse player in Portugal.
Tim Smyczek v Nicolas Kicker - 1.43 Kicker
- 130th v 95th.
- Tim won a 3 setter on clay in 2016.
- No strong form here for me for either player.
- No form from Kicker to suggest why he should be so short.
Cameron Norrie v Robin Haase - 1.36 Haase
- 114th v 42nd.
- Haase has lost his last 3 clay matches in the first round.
- Norrie's clay form is on very low level events - futures events.
- No strong opinion here.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas v Federico Delbonis - 1.93 Vinolas
Pablo Andujar v Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.72 Tsitsipas
- Andujar has clay form.Finals in an Alicante Challenger and winning in Casablanca. On that basis I did expect him to be competitive in Barcelona but he met top 20 Agut.
- Tsitsipas did not drop a set in Barcelona until meeting Nadal in the Final on clay. Superb form.
- We have 2 very solid recent clay form players making this a toughie. Default to 3 sets? Strictly on form for me, Stefanos 2-0 is possible.
Leonardo Mayer v Nicolas Jarry - 1.73 Mayer
- 52nd v 100th.
- 3 set win for Mayer in the Australian Open earlier this year.
- Did Jarry have such a solid clay court run in South America because he is a South American?
- Mayer's losses recently have come against some big names.
- We may see Mayer competitive here so lay Jarry if Jarry wins first set, noting though that he is solid on clay when in his home continent!
WTA Rabat - Clay
Aleksandra Krunic v Lara Arruabarrena - 1.9 Lara
Elise Mertens v Kristina Kucova - 1.14 Elise Mertens
- 36th v 247th.
- A good clay court tournament win in Lugano and that surely will see her beat this 247th ranked player. Expect a 2-0.
Ajla Tomljanovic v Sílvia Soler-Espinosa - 1.57 Ajla
- 130th v 226th.
- No strong form lines here.
Timea Babos v Alexandra Dulgheru - 1.35 Babos
- 56th v 191st.
- Babos a finalist on hard court recently.
- Dulgheru failed to get through qualifiers in 3 of her last 4 tournaments.
- Babos has the momentum.
Laura Siegemund v Ana Bogdan - 1.61 Siegemund
- 69th v 105th.
- Bogdan must be happy with her ultra recent form. Semi Final on hard in Monterray and semi final on clay in Bogota.
- I would take a chance and lay Laura here if she won the first set based on recent momentum for Ana.
Polona Hercog v Dominika Cibulkova - 1.91 Hercog
- 101st v 26th for me. A surprise to see Cibulkova 26th as she has been inconsistent.
- 2-2 head to heads not on clay.
- Hercog is memorable for her final on clay in Istanbul last week. On that kind of form, I would look for a 3 setter today and a lay of Cibulkova if Cib won the first set.
- The last solid clay court form for Cibulkova came with a Madrid final in 2016. She has reached a recent final on hard.
- I will stick with the expectation for a 3 setter.
Bethanie Mattek-Sands v Su-Wei Hsieh - 1.82 Hsieh
- 123rd v 83rd.
- Very few clay court tournaments for Sands since French Open where she reached the round of 32.
- Hsieh had a breakthrough 2017 for me but on clay she is yet to play top flight tennis.
- Little to get a handle on here.