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UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

17:55 - Shakhtar v Real Madrid - 1.43 Real Madrid

  • 2 matches remain and both sides could qualify still. The last time these 2 met, Shakhtar led 0-3, final score 2-3 and a disallowed late Real Madrid goal too. A great game for trading. We can only wish for more of the same tonight.
  • Since that 2-3 win for Shakhtar, they failed to score 0-0, 0-6 loss, 4-0 loss (the losses v Mgladbach).
  • Real Madrid have entertained so far. That 2-3 loss v Shakhtar, 2-2 draw with Mgladbach, 3-2 win v Inter and 0-2 win v Inter (red card affected).
  • Can we be assured of at least 2 goals from Real Madrid tonight? If so, then that is an angle in, should Shakhtar oblige with a goal or two.

17:55 - Lokomotiv v Red Bull Salzburg - 1.65 Red Bull Salzburg

  • This is do or die for these 2 sides in Group A. Bayern are through but this is a must win for these 2 sides, with Atl Madrid on 5 points only and playing Bayern Munich today.
  • 2-2 draw the last time these 2 met. Lokomotiv led, Salzburg made it 2-1 and it ended 2-2.
  • Both teams scored in 3/4 matches for Lokomotiv. 3 draws in 4 matches. A draw and 3 defeats for Salzburg, scoring 2-2-2-1 goals. They seem to have the more consistent goal scoring record.

20:00

Atalanta v Midtjylland - 1.21 Atalanta

  • Midtjylland are yet to gain a point in Group D. It's all to play for, for Atalanta as 1st and 2nd in the group meet each other and potentially slit each other's throat.
  • Atalanta have failed to score in both Seria A matches prior to Champions League fixtures but impressed with a 0-2 win away at Liverpool.
  • 4-2-2-3 goals conceded by Midtjylland but they have been scoring in their last 2 defeats.
  • I expect Atalanta to win and assume their inability to score in Seria A is down to their focus on these Champions League matches.

Mgladbach v Inter - 2.4 Inter

  • Group B sees Inter on 2 points. They are still not out of it with 2 matches remaining. But this is a must win against the table leaders.
  • Mgladbach have been full of goals. 2-2 away at Inter, saw Inter lead, Mgladbach make it 1-2 and Inter equalise.
  • 2-2 at home v Real Madrid saw Mgladbach lead 2-0.
  • 10 goals to no reply v Shakhtar Donetsk was emphatic.
  • Draw, Draw, Loss, Loss for Inter Milan, the losses came v Real Madrid.
  • A fascinating match. A must win for both sides for different reasons. Do or die for Inter Milan though with only 2 matches remaining, they must take 3 points.

Atletico Madrid v Bayern Munich - 2.00 Atletico Madrid

  • Bayern Munich are through. Atl Madrid must win with Lokomotiv Moscow and Salzburg.
  • 4-0 loss to Bayern for Atl Madrid was the only loss. Win, Draw, Draw since (draws coming v Lokomotiv Moscow). Atl Madrid couldn't score despite utterly dominating Lokomotiv Moscow last week.
  • 4-2-6-3 goals scored by Bayer Munich who conceded in their last 3 wins.
  • We don't know Bayern's mentality going into this match. Watch out for team changes. Atl Madrid won 0-1 at the weekend and that would be a template for this match. They must stop Bayern Munich from scoring their average of nearly 4 goals a game.

Porto v Man City - 1.63 Man City

  • Only Porto can catch and topple Man City at the top of Group C. Man City have qualified. Porto need just a point from their remaining 2 matches.
  • Porto's only loss was a 3-1 away loss v Man City.
  • City have scored 3-3-3-1 goals.
  • City's attitude to this dead rubber for them is the concern. Watch out for team news. Remember Porto's goal is a draw only.

Marseille v Olympiakos - 2.44 Marseille

  • Marseille cannot qualify from Group C. Europa League is the goal.
  • Marseille are yet to score this Champions League. Olympiakos beat them 1-0 in the corresponding fixture.
  • A win and 3 defeats for Olympiakos.
  • As befits the odds, this is tough to read.

Liverpool v Ajax - 1.76 Liverpool

  • A 35th minute goal, an own goal, split these 2 earlier in Liverpool's favour. 3 Liverpool wins and a loss v Atalanta. A win will assure qualification for Liverpool.
  • Loss, Draw, Win, Win for Ajax. Ajax must look for the win too with Atalanta on the same points as them. Both teams have scored in Ajax's last 3 matches.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:00 - Cardiff v Huddersfield - 1.96 Cardiff

Cardiff - 14th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Won last home match.
  • 2 wins in 3 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Losses at home v 5th, 6th and 23rd.
  • 5/7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Huddersfield - 13th

  • 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 4/6 wins have come v the top 8.
  • Only 2 away wins v 4th and 11th.

Conclusions

  • I don't normally research this league because it is tough and this is an example. No strong patterns pre match for me. Note if Cardiff do concede it tends to be first half. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market?

19:45

QPR v Bristol City - 2.46 QPR

  • 15th v 6th here and another 2.46 the favourite match. Unappealing. QPR have only 1 loss at home but have not beaten the top 10.
  • All 4 of Bristol City's losses came v the top 4. 4 wins and a draw away v 8th and lower.
  • On that form, favour Bristol City, but remember, always, that 2.46 the favourite suggests that this is too tough to call.

Derby v Coventry - 2.34 Derby

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches, failing to score, for Derby County.
  • Derby have only 1 win and that was their only clean sheet.
  • No win in 7 at home for Derby, conceding in those 7 matches.
  • 24th v 20th. Strangely, Derby's only win came away v 1st in the league.
  • 2 1-1 draws for Derby v 21st and 22nd.
  • 6 goals conceded by Derby away last 15 minutes of matches.
  • Only 2 wins for Coventry came at home. Draw, Win, Draw for Coventry last 3 matches.
  • Coventry have conceded in their last 5 away, and have no win in 7 away matches.
  • Angles? Welcome to the English Championship. 2 strugglers here. Derby are unbeaten v 21st and lower and play 24th today. Coventry have only 1 loss v 14th and lower.

Bournemouth v Preston - 1.63 Bournemouth

Bournemouth - 2nd

  • A relegated side enjoying the less rarified air. Only 1 loss.
  • Have twice come from losing positions to win and now draw (v Rotherham).
  • 2+ goals scored last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • 9/12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Preston - 18th

  • Only 1 draw.
  • 5 losses last 7 matches.
  • Scored in each of their last 7 away matches.
  • 2-2 v 1st and 4-1 loss v 3rd away.
  • Better away than at home. 4 wins away.
  • 12/15 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Bournemouth look set up for recovery here. They have done so in 2 of their last 3 matches. They do score 2nd half goals so note that.
  • Preston are scoring away from home and if scoring first, we have seen Bournemouth's recent recoveries.

Birmingham v Barnsley - 2.72 Birmingham

  • 2.72 the favourite, in a tough league like the Championship. I'll take the hint. In-play stats or not at all.
  • If I look at the Challenge Table, Birmingham have lost at home to 2nd, 22nd and 23rd and they meet 16th today.
  • 3 wins and a 0-0 for Barnsley v 15th and lower. Woeful stuff v 14th and higher. That, I suppose, is why it is 2.72 the favourite.

20:00 - Rotherham v Brentford - 1.87 Brentford

Rotherham - 19th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Conceded and scored 2 goals last 2 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Not beaten a top 17 side home or away.
  • Failed to score v 4th-12th inclusive.
  • 7/8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Brentford - 7th

  • A recent run of 2 0-0's has ended with 2 wins.
  • Unbeaten in 7 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • Scored 2 goals in 3/4 matches v 18th and lower.
  • 5/6 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • The momentum is with Brentford here who have found their scoring touch again and play a Rotherham with only 2 clean sheets and a team failing to score v 4th-12th inclusive. If Rotherham score first they may not follow up. Do note they concede more 2nd half. I have to be with Brentford on this basis. They could threaten 2 goals at least.

DUTCH EERSTE DIVISIE

17:45 - Go Ahead Eagles v Jong AZ Alkmaar - 1.43 Go Ahead Eagles

Go Ahead Eagles - 12th

  • Only 4 defeats but did lose last match.
  • Draw, Win, Draw, Win last 4 at home.
  • 4 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Home losses v 11th and 13th.
  • Win away, win at home, 0-0 v bottom 4. All clean sheets.
  • Strong goals scored and conceded last 15 minutes of home matches.

Jong AZ Alkmaar - 19th

  • 7 defeats and 2 draws last 9 matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • All defeats away v the top 11.
  • 14 of 21 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Jong AZ are likely to concede and Go Ahead Eagles could keep a clean sheet as they have done on 3 occasions v the bottom 4. That points to a home win or 0-0.
  • Last 15 minutes of home matches for Go Ahead sees action so note that if the match is quiet goals wise up to the 76th minute.