DRT Daily Research Bulletin, September 19, 2017
It is a coupon worthy of a live chat tonight. I like it and I like the potential angles. It would require me waking up for a 4:45am start. That is no beyond the realms of possibility so if I am up with the emus, then I will be live chatting.
ENGLISH LEAGUE CUP
19:45 - Leicester v Liverpool - 2.38 Liverpool
- Mane is out for Liverpool.
- Liverpool lost their last 2 League Cup matches 1-0 to Southampton.
- Prior to that they were unbeaten in 6.
- 3 extra times in 4 matches for Leicester suggests a draw is a real possibility today. Only 2 wins for Leicester in 7 matches in the League Cup suggests that their heart is not quite with this competition.
- Tough match to predict given the competition and big teams' attitude towards it.
19:45 - Burnley v Leeds - 1.87 Burnley
- Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss (extra time), Win for Burnley in the League Cup recently. There is a hint that they are not up for the cup.
- 4 wins, 2 wins after extra time, and a loss to Liverpool suggests that Leeds are up for the cup.
- Only 1 win in 6 away for Leeds though is a concern. Burnley lost their last 2 home matches without scoring.
- Welcome to the League Cup. This is a match for the inplay stats.
19:45 - Aston Villa v Middlesbrough - 2.48 Aston Villa
- 2.48 about 2 teams in the League Cup. I will take the hint and leave this match alone.
19:45 - West Ham v Bolton - 1.38 West Ham
- 2 clean sheets now in the Premiership for West Ham. Can they bring that to the League cup against Championship opposition?
- Only 1 defeat in 6 for West Ham in the League cup saw 3 wins in 4 v Accrington, Chelsea and Cheltenham.
- West Ham's only recent defeat in the League Cup was v Manchester City.
- Bolton have lost their last 4 matches without conceding.
- Unbeaten in 3 league cup matches with extra time win v Blackpool, wins v Crewe and Sheffield Wednesday.
- West Ham seem obvious favourites here given Bolton's recent troubles in front of goal.
19:45 - Bournemouth v Brighton - 2.02 Bournemouth
- A sustained run in the English League Cup or another season in the English premiership. What would be your priority?
- A 2-1 win for Bournemouth very recently in a head to head, saw Brighton score first.
- No draw in the League cup for Brighton since September 2014.
- They only once played a Premiership side in that run and that was a 2-0 loss to Tottenham.
- Only 2 defeats in 9 matches for Bournemouth in the League cup.
- I will take a chance here and expect Bournemouth not to lose. They edge it very slightly on League Cup form and have the recent form in the book in head to heads.
- We are assuming no major team changes of course.
19:45 - Brentford v Norwich - 2.68 Brentford
- I do apologise but in a competition such as the League Cup and with the market so unsure of these 2 teams, I will bow out.
19:45 - Bristol City v Stoke - 2.06 Stoke
- Bristol are unbeaten in 5.
- In the League cup, only 1 loss in 6 matches but not met a Premiership side.
- 4 2-1 scorelines (3 losses) in recent home league cup matches.
- 2 score draws and a loss for Stoke recently. The market recounts Stoke may play a second string tonight.
- Stoke's recent wins in the League cup came v Stevenage and Rochdale.
- A match I am not too keen on. I would consider backing 2-1 and 1-2 as trading vehicles here given Bristol's 2-1 habit at home in the League Cup.
19:45 - Wolves v Bristol Rovers - 1.52 Wolves
- Wolves are unbeaten in 5 in all competitions and looking healthy.Bristol Rovers are League One opponents who have 3 losses in 4 matches.
- 6 wins in 8 in the league cup suggests to me Wolves, as a club, look for a cup run in the League Cup.
- 4 consecutive 2-1 home wins ended with a 1-0 last match Wolves.
- 8 consecutive away defeats Bristol Rovers in the League cup ended with a 0-1 win v Fulham.
- I do like Wolves' apparent attitude to the cup and on that basis will enter this match expecting them not to lose.
20:00 - Reading v Swansea - 2.12 Swansea
- A Championship side v a struggling Premiership side.
- Reading tend to enjoy a run in the League cup losing only to Arsenal and Everton recently.
- Swansea have lost almost exclusively to Premiership sides in the League Cup.
- Very tough to call given Reading are up for the cup but Swansea have a great record in the cup outside of Premiership sides.
- I have to defer to inplay stats I am afraid.
20:00 - Tottenham v Barnsley - 1.13 Tottenham
- Only 1 win in 5 League cup matches for Tottenham was v Gillingham.
- Yes they played Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool in the other matches.
- 5 wins in 6 at home and the only loss v Arsenal suggests Tottingham may play well at home (a home ground where they keep drawing in the Premiership).
- Goal laden matches for Barnsley in beating Derby and Morecambe. Prior to that, 5 matches where they did not win.
- With this type of weak defence, Tottenham should have a field day. Expect a reaction to their poor 0-0 league performance last weekend.
- 1.13 suggests 3/4 goals (if Spurs can be bothered of course). With such a dire record I would be a layer of Spurs at the current odds, despite the high likelihood of a home win.
SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA
19:00 - Valencia v Malaga - 1.61 Valencia
- Malaga have scored 2 goals in the last 2 head to heads, a 2-2 draw and 2-1 win yet are not favoured today at all.
- Valencia are unbeaten with a win and 3 draws now. They scored 2 goals v Real Madrid but if you checked out head to heads that seems to be the norm. Elsewhere they scored 1-0-1.
- 3 1-0 defeats part of a run of 4 losses for Malaga.
- Valencia's goal scoring is not that of 1.61 shots. Malaga are only losing 1-0 generally.
- If Malaga fail to score we default to the home side.
- This might be another 1-0 loss for Malaga. There are no immediately identifiable patterns though to get stuck into.
21:00 - Barcelona v Eibar - 1.14 Barcelona
- 4 goals scored by Barca in the last 3 head to heads ties in precisely with what is expected of a 1.14 shot. That, and a goal at least before halftime.
- Barca have scored 2 goals bare minimum in their 4 wins. They came from behind to beat Getafe, the only time they conceded.
- 3 of 4 Barca matches saw a goal before halftime, so if 0-0 after 20 mins, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
- 2 1-0 wins for Eibar and 2 defeats to nil v Ath Bilbao and Sevilla.
- We should expect 2 goals Barca absolute bare minimum, and more like the 4 they usually score against Eibar.
- We should expect at least one goal before halftime.
17:30 - Mgladbach v Stuttgart - 1.68 Mgladbach
- 4 consecutive Mgladbach wins in head to heads.
- 1-0 and 0-1 at home but 2 2-2 scorelines away.
- Stuttgart have won 1-0 in their 2 home matches but lost convincingly in their 2 away.
- For me there is very little to go on, bar the head to heads which suggest a positive Mgladbach performance. Is that enough to entice you?
- Mgladbach's poor scoring at home (albeit 2 matches only) is not the goal scoring of a 1.68 shot.
19:30 - Augsburg v RB Leipzig - 2.1 RB
- 2-1 Leipzig and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.
- Identical form both sides. 2 wins, a loss and a draw.
- 2-2 and 3-2 at home for Augsburg.2-0 and 0-2 RB away.
- Both sides have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 3 matches.
- I would tentatively back 2-2 per match here and hope that we see goals. 2-2 as a trading vehicle is tradable even at 2-0, or at 2-1 to either side.
- In the expectation of goals, lay any late 0-0 and if you want to, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
19:30 - Schalke v Bayern Munich - 1.42 Bayern
- A 1-1 draw last head to head is not the norm.Bayern usually have 2 or 3 goals in them when these 2 meet.
- Good stuff from Schalke. 3 wins, all scoring 2 goals at least, and a loss. They beat Leipzig 2-0 at home, a decent enough gauge given Leipzig were 2nd last season.
- 3 wins and a loss Bayern. Surprise Surprise. The Loss occured in the match immediately prior to the Champions League.
- One pattern, 2 1-1's at halftime now for Schalke so if Schalke score first and reasonably early in the first half, lay them in the halftime market in anticipation of an equaliser.
- An interesting match given Schalke are in such good form. I would have preferred to have seen them play a Dortmund or Hoffenheim at home in order to gauge them this season. 4 matches offers few angles in.
- We usually expect a Bayern win in a non-Champions League affected league match.
19:30 - Wolfsburg v Werder Bremen - 2.1 Wolfsburg
- 2-1 Werder in the last 2 head to heads.
- Werder are yet to win a match, with 3 defeats and a draw.
- Both teams have scored in the last 2 Werder matches and we have seen at least a goal before halftime. This was a winning combination in the 2016/2017 season.
- 0-1-1-0 scored by Wolfsburg so far this season suggests laying Wolfsburg if Wolfsburg score first. If they cannot score a 2nd, then they will not be the next goal scorer!
- As I say with Werder, if continuing last season's patterns, expect a goal before halftime and both teams to score.
- Both teams scored in 76% of Werder matches last season so if it does not occur today it is likely to occur in the very near future.
- No 0-0 at halftime for Werder away last season.
19:45 - Bologna v Inter - 1.59 Inter
- Inter tends to have an unbeaten record v Bologna in head to heads.
- 4 consecutive wins Inter and scoring 2+ goals. It was 0-0 last match until the 82nd minute, so keep the faith!
- Bologna's losses to Napoli and Fiorentina should be a template for today. The concession of at least 2 goals.
- Inter Milan are lively outsiders for the title. If 0-0 halftime I would back 0-2 2nd half (1-2 saver perhaps).