DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 19, 2021
I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook and see you on Telegram throughout the day. Many more league and cup matches than those mentioned below.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
18:00 - West Ham v West Brom - 1.62 West Ham
- New manager syndrome still for West Brom so we cannot read anything from matches prior to Big Sam's arrival.
- 3 consecutive clean sheets for West Ham in a draw and 2 1-0 wins.
- West Ham have scored in their last 8 home matches.
- 9th v 19th. West Ham have 3 1-0 wins v 17th and lower, 2 at home.
- 62% of goals scored, and 70% of goals conceded in West Ham home matches came 2nd half.
- West Ham away under Big Sam are impressive with a 1-1 v Liverpool and a 2-3 win v Wolves (2 penalties though so luck on his side). At home, 3 heavy defeats without scoring.
- And that is the only way we can evaluate West Brom so far.
- Angles? West Ham do 1-0 wins v the bottom 4. West Brom are draw and win away in matches in which both teams score. As ever, with teams with new managers, it is very hard to anticipate how they will play.
20:15 - Leicester v Chelsea - 2.54 Chelsea
Leicester - 3rd
- Only 1 loss in 8 matches came v Everton.
- Have lost when failing to score.
- Opponents have scored first in 6/9 at home.
- The 3 losses to nil at home came v the top 11.
Chelsea - 7th
- Comfortable enough win away v Fulham latest.
- Ends a run of only 1 win in 6 matches.
- 0-1-1-1 goals scored away latest and with just that one win to show for it.
- Scored in their last 6 matches.
- Not beaten a top 8 side home or away.
- Not beaten the top 14 away.
- 0-0 and 1-0 away v the top 6.
- 11/14 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- 2.54 the favourite? The market cannot split these 2. Chelsea look to have a specific set up v the big guns, Keep it tight and try and nick a 0-1. But that has failed v the top 6 with a 0-0 and 1-0 loss so far. Chelsea's inability to beat the top 8 home and away really stands out. But note Leicester's home defeats have tended to come at home v the top 11 so they themselves may be vulnerable.
- Welcome to 2.54 the favourite.
- Back 0-0 pre match if you want, and hope that Chelsea are as tight has they have been in 2 matches away v the top 6.
17:30 - Mgladbach v Werder Bremen - 1.64 Mgladbach
Mgladbach - 8th
- Only 3 defeats.
- Win, Win, Draw last 3 matches. 1-2 win turned into a last minute 2-2 draw last match.
- Superb 3-2 win v Bayern last home match.
- Failed to score only first match of the season.
- Scored and conceded last 5 at home.
- 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
- Scored first in 6/8 at home.
- All score draws home and away v 5th-13th.
Werder Bremen - 12th
- Only 1 loss in 4 matches.
- 0-1 win and 1-1 away last 2 matches.
- Failed to score in only 2 matches.
- 3 0-0's at halftime away but none at fulltime.
- Not beaten a top 10 side 4 1-1 draws v the top 9 away.
- 1-1 or 2-2 looks destined? Surely it cannot be that easy? All score draws for Mgladbach v 5th-13th. 4 1-1 draws away for Werder v the top 9.
- I do note that Mgladbach have been ending their single goal a game habit at home and emphatically against Bayern Munich so if that momentum carries through today, they could simply outscore Werder Bremen today.
- I would be happy to lay any Werder lead here.
- Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
Bayer Leverkusen v Dortmund - 2.2 Dortmund
Leverkusen - 3rd
- An unbeaten season has ended with 3 losses and a poor 1-1 draw v a poor Werder Bremen.
- Loss, Draw at home last 2 matches.
- Scored and conceded last 3 at home.
- Not beaten the top 7 yet.
- 1-2 and 1-1 at home v the top 2.
Dortmund - 4th
- 2 wins and a draw last 3 matches.
- Draw, Win, Loss, Win away.
- Failed to score in only one match.
- Scored and conceded last 5 away.
- 4 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
- 1-3 win v 2nd, 2-1 loss v 5th away.
- 14/15 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- This is a top 4 clash and I tend to be a little cold about these matches. Both sides could cancel each other out. But statistically, there is a both teams to score pattern recently for both.
- What I would remember is Dortmund's very strong 2nd half scoring record which has been an excellent trading tool recently.
- If Leverkusen lead at halftime therefore, we could lay them.
Hertha Berlin v Hoffenheim - 2.38 Hertha Berlin
- The Hoff are as readable as a Jeffrey Archer Novel. I will leave this match to the in-play stats.
- 13th v 14th in the league. And with sporadic form, in-play stats or not at all!
Mainz v Wolfsburg - 1.86 Wolfsburg
Mainz - 17th
- Only 1 win.
- Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- No home win.
- Conceded last 8 at home.
- 3 consecutive home defeats.
- 6 goals scored at home came 1st half.
Wolfsburg - 6th
- No win in 4 away. 2 losses and a draw last 3 away matches.
- 2 consecutive 2-2 results, conceding 2 goals last 3 matches.
- Only 1 away win but 5 score draws away v 5th-16th.
- 7/10 goals scored away came 1st half.
- The Wolf are conceding 2 goals far too readily of late but will a side as poor as Mainz take advantage? Nothing in their form to suggest that.
- Score draw is alive in a Wolf away match. At any rate they should not lose this evening.
SPANISH LA LIGA
18:00 - Cadiz v Levante - 2.68 Levante
- 2.68 the favourite and a newly promoted side. We saw in a recent Italian newly promoted match how difficult it was to read, and we saw with 2 of the Bundesliga newly promoted sides how tough it was to read the match. I won't research this match but will follow via the in-play stats.
18:00 - Valladolid v Elche - 1.92 Valladolid
Valladolid - 17th
- Only 3 losses in 10 matches, 2 of the defeats were v Atl Madrid and Barcelona.
- 2 consecutive home defeats without scoring.
- Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- Conceded last 9 at home.
- 2 home wins came v 12th and 19th.
- 3-2 win and 2-2 draw v the bottom 2 this season.
- 5 goals conceded at home came last 15 mins of matches.
Elche - 18th
- No win in 11 and in 5 away.
- Conceded in their last 6 matches.
- All wins and unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.
- Beat 15th and 16th away.
- Both sides in the bottom 4 is offputting as is the fact that both sides produce their best v teams at the wrong end of the table. Looking at Elche's unbeaten record v 14th and lower, we cannot readily discount them (unlike the market makers!).
20:30 - Alaves v Sevilla - 1.76 Sevilla
Alaves - 16th
- Only 4 wins.
- A draw and 2 losses last 3 matches.
- Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
- Only 1 win home and away v the top 11.
- Not scored that 2nd goal at home v the top 13.
- 6/9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
- 5/7 goals scored at home came 1st half.
Sevilla - 6th
- Only 2 losses in 11 matches.
- 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
- 6 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
- Very tight matches v 13th and lower, includes 3 0-1 wins away.
- 78% of goals scored and 75% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- Sevilla have had a tendency to do 0-0 at halftime and 0-1 2nd half. Watch for this pattern today. 3 0-1 wins v 13th and lower away from home.
- Alaves have not scored that 2nd goal at home v the top 13 so 1-0 or 1-1 is their best case scenario today.
- You may want to back 0-0 pre match and hope for another 0-0 at halftime away for Sevilla.