I will try and tweet @drtclub this evening from 18:00 to cover the Championship and Champions League. Strong in-play stats bias, particularly with the latter competition.
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (CL)
17:55 - Barcelona v PSV - 1.12 Barcelona
- Barcelona tend only to lose to a small handful of quality sides from Atl Madrid (twice), PSG (twice), Bayern, Man City, and then 2 Italian sides Juventus and Roma. I am afraid that PSV do not enter into the ranks of these teams mentioned.
- 24 wins and 2 draws for Barcelona at home in the CL
- Quite simply, PSV struggle when they meet the elite in the CL. This is set to continue. Expect 3+ goals from Barcelona.
17:55 - Inter v Tottenham - 2.78 Inter
- The Inter 0-1 loss to Parma at the weekend maybe had, at is base, this match as a causal factor?
- Inter were last in the CL in 2012 so we can glean nothing from their CL form.
- Tottenham are starting to play regularly in the CL. 2016 - Losses twice to Monaco and Bayer Leverkusen. 2017 - 5 wins v the likes of APOEL, Real Madrid, Dortmund, going out to Juventus in a 2-2 home leg and 1-2 away leg. Solid stuff from the Spurs.
- On that basis, I feel Tottenham may not lose today. Inter Milan we simply cannot read as they last played in the CL in 2012.
20:00 - Monaco v Atletico Madrid - 1.81 Atl Madrid
- 6 defeats and 2 draws for Monaco in the CL last year, scoring and conceding in 10/12 matches.
- 4 consecutive home defeats for Monaco.
- Atl Madrid have had a really poor season. 1-1, 1-0 win, 2-0 loss, 1-1 draw in La Liga.
- Only 2 wins in 9 matches for Atl Madrid in the CL. Away from home, Atl Madrid have 4 draws and a loss in 5 CL matches.
- Atl Madrid have some brilliant centre forwards but where are the goals? I am certainly not a backer of Atl Madrid at 1.81 and would lay Atl Madrid if they scored first.
20:00 - Schalke v Porto - 2.74 Schalke
- 3 consecutive defeats in the Bundesliga for Schalke.
- Schalke were last in the CL in 2015. No recent CL form.
- Only 3 wins in 10 CL matches in 2017 for Porto suggests that the Portugeuse sides are out of their depth in this competition.
- As the market suggests, this is too tough to call. Schalke are poor this season and an unknown quantity with no CL match since 2015.
20:00 - Galatasaray v Lokomotiv - 1.77 Galatasary
- Only 1 win in 14 CL Matches for Galatasary albeit from 2015.
- Lokomotiv were last in the CL in 2005. No research can be done. The odds? Pure guess-work from the market makers.
20:00 - Liverpool v Paris St-G - 2.14 Liverpool
- Liverpool have a real shot at the EPL title this season. Only 2 losses in the CL since 2017 came in their last 2 matches away v Roma and Real Madrid 4-2 and 3-1 defeats.
- Liverpool scored 2 goals minimum in 11 of their last 12 CL matches.
- After beating Celtic, Bayern and Anderlecht last year, PSG lost to Bayern and Real Madrid twice.
- Liverpool look great this season. PSG scored and conceded last 4 matches and I would lay PSG if PSG scored first. 1-0 loss to MAn City, 2-2 away at Arsenal suggests the Premier league sides can give PSG a game.
- Liverpool to score 2 goals again? Can Liverpool continue their Premier League leading at halftime and fulltime?
20:00 - Club Brugge v Borussia Dortmund - 1.83 Dortmund
- 9 defeats and a 3-3 for Club Brugga in their last 10 CL matches, tending to concede 2 goals at least.
- Dortmund scored and conceded in each of their last 8 matches in the CL WITHOUT WINNING. No win in 6 aways for Dortmund.
- A new Dortmund manager must engender some CL change.
- Will both teams score today? This does look on paper a chance for Dortmund to end this woeful CL winless run. That is how I would enter the match, even if Club Brugge score first.
20:00 - Crvena Zvezda v Napoli - 1.56 Napoli
- Red Star, as they are better know, tend not to meet Elite clubs in the CL so this is a new experience for them.
- 3 clean sheets in 4 at home but note that they are meeting lesser lights.
- Napoli scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 CL matches, 3 were away v Shakhtar, Man City and Feyenoord.
- Red Star are a relatively unknown quantity. Napoli in Seria A have scored 0-1 last 2 matches. Bit of a wobble? Expect them to win against a Red Star side who should be a guaranteed 3 points for the 3 other sides in the group.
19:45 - Ipswich v Brentford - 1.86 Brentford
- 1-1, 2-0 Ipswich and 1-0 Brentford in the last 3 head to heads.
- No win for Ipswich. 3 consecutive home score draws.
- No clean sheets for Ipswich.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Only 1 loss for Brentford. 2 score draws and a 1-0 loss away though.4 wins at home for Brentford. Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
- Based on a small sample, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market; Ipswich to score again?; Brentford not to lose; possible score draw?
19:45 - Aston Villa v Rotherham - 1.54 Aston Villa
- 100% both teams to score record for Villa, losing only one match. 4 score draws in 5 matches. Only 2 wins came at home.
- Whenever these 2 teams have had a 0-0 at halftime, it has NOT been 0-0 at fulltime.
- Rotherham have tended to win at home. 3/3 defeats away. Rotherham have scored only 1 away goal, coming 2nd half.
- I cannot see Aston Villa losing today although they may concede but v a Rotherham with only 1 goal in 3 away, it may be tough for the both teams to score pattern to continue.
19:45 - Leeds v Preston - 1.9 Leeds
- 0-0 and 3-1 Preston last 2 head to heads.
- 3 draws in 4 for Leeds continues their unbeaten season. 2 consecutive home clean sheets for Leeds. Leeds started the season scoring 2+ goals in 5 matches but since then, 0-1 goals.
- Preston only won their opener. Since then, 4 losses and 2 draws, conceding 1-2-2-2-2-3 goals.
- On this season's form, we would have to side with Leeds today not to lose. Will Preston concede 2 goals again? It would end the Preston unbeaten head to head run.
19:45 - Derby v Blackburn - 2.3 Derby
- No draw for Derby this season.3 wins in 4 matches now scoring 2 goals in the wins.
- Derby only failed to score last match. Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Only 1 loss for Blackburn but only 2 wins which were 1-0. No 0-0 at halftime.
- Lay any late draw? Hope Derby continue to avoid draws. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market? Small sample though. I would take a chance and lay Blackburn if Blackburn scored first based on Derby only failing to score last match. If Derby do score, they should not lose.
20:00 - Wigan v Hull - 1.96 Wigan
- Last head to heads 2011.
- Wigan are unbeaten at home, 3-2, 2-2, 1-0. 3 losses have come away. Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- Draw, Win, Loss Hull.The win was a 2-3. 2 consecutive aways sees Hull conceding at least 2 goals. Only 1 clean sheet for Hull came last match. No 0-0 at halftime this season.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market? Another small sample though. Favour Wigan today on home form. Hull have conceded 2 goals twice away so may be vulnerable.
20:00 - West Brom v Bristol City - 1.99 West Brom
- Both teams have scored in all bar 1 West Brom match this season.1-1-4-7-0-2-1 goals scored recently.
- No 0-0 at halftime at home for West Brom.It is early in the season but West Brom losses came v 4th and 10th and they play 3rd today. These are early season positions but signals a potential tough encounter for West Brom.
- 7 of 10 goals scored by West Brom came 2nd half at home.
- Only 1 loss for Bristol came v Boro who also beat West Brom. 4 consecutive wins now for Bristol City. They failed to score only against Boro.
- 0-1-1 goals scored by Bristol v top 6. They play 8th today.
- A feeling with this match that these 2 are playing better quality sides today.
- Will Both teams score? Will Bristol's lack of 2 goals kick in v top 8? If so, lay Bristol if they score first. West Brom have failed to score only once.
20:00 - Stoke v Swansea - 1.92 Stoke
- 2 consecutive 2-1 Stoke wins in head to heads.
- Only 1 win this season for Stoke. That was their only clean sheet.
- No 0-0 at halftime for Stoke.At least one team has scored at least 2 goals in all bar one Stoke matches this season.
- 100% over 1.5 goals at home for Stoke.
- Only 1 loss for Swansea.Win, Draw, Win away.
- 100% 0-0's at halftime away for the Swans.
- 2-1/1-2 correct score looks worthwhile here. Stoke have tended to win 2-1 head to heads and the Swans have 2 1-2 away wins. I tend to cash out if lucky enough to see 1-1 during the match, as this scoreline will shorten the odds of 201/1-2.