Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

No plans this evening yet so I'd be keen to do a live chat at 19:30. It will be a quick webinar to cover the small band of matches, including cup matches.
I'll set up a live chat webinar. I do like the 17:30 match. Mgladbach have been so solid at home and made us some dosh in Saturday live chats. https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8613674543106962945  is the link. Please register to attend.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:30 - Bologna v AC Milan - 1.97 AC Milan

  • 5 consecutive Milan wins in head to heads.

Bologna (18th)

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 2/2 defeats v the top 3.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

AC Milan (4th)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 2 draws in 3 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime in 5 matches.
  • All defeats came v the top 3.
  • 7 of 8 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On form, AC Milan should not be losing. If Bologna are scoring and conceding, they are layable if leading.
  • Both sides are 2nd half conceders so fear not if 0-0 at halftime. AC Milan are worryingly scoring just the single goal away v bottom half teams. That still should not stop them from a positive result

ENGLISH LEAGUE CUP

19:45 - Leicester v Man City - 1.37 Man City

  • 2 Premier League teams in this League Cup.
  • We saw with Nice at the weekend that taking on 0-0 sequences is worthwhile. We have 2 consecutive 0-0's in the League Cup for Leicester.
  • Man City are unbeaten in 8 League Cup matches. 5 consecutive wins.3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • City won on penalties in 2017.
  • Likely team changes could suggest a tight encounter like last year's. City's odds look too short in that context and laying them if they lead is the value call. Again, in-play stats is the best play in the League Cup.

19:45 - Middlesbrough v Burton - 1.43 Middlesbrough

  • Championship v League One. I like gaps in the league.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 League Cup matches for Middlesbrough. That loss came v Premier League Bournemouth.
  • Since 2014, Only Everton have beaten Boro at home in the League Cup.
  • 6 wins in 7 in the cup for Burton. Good form. Only beaten by Liverpool and Man Utd. They have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Burton have not lost an away League Cup match since 2013. Burton scored in all away League Cup matches
  • An interesting clash. Both sides have good League Cup form making this a potentially tighter match than the odds suggest. Burton only losing to Liverpool and Man Utd of late!!
  • The value is in the lay of Boro if they score first but in the cup, check in-play stats.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

17:30 - Mgladbach v Nurnberg - 1.44 Mgladbach

  • No recent head to heads.

Mgladbach (2nd)

  • Only 3 losses came away.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches, their last 2 away.
  • 100% home wins, scoring 2+ goals in all of those matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not conceded that 2nd goal at home.
  • 17 of 21 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Nurnberg (17th)

  • 6 defeats and 3 draws in 9 matches.
  • 5 defeats in 5 away.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score away v top 7. 16 goals conceded away v top 4.

Conclusions

  • The usual trade with Mgladbach is to back 2-0, 3-0, 3-1 if the match is 0-0 at halftime. They should continue their home winning sequence against a Nurnberg conceding 16 goals in 3 matches v the top 4 away.

19:30 - Fortuna Dusseldorf v Dortmund - 1.52 Dortmund

  • 1.52 looks like an early Christmas present.

Dusseldorf (16th)

  • Won 3 at home and won their last home matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 2 wins in their last 3 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not played the top 5 at home.
  • 80% of goals scored and 92% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Dortmund (1st)

  • Failed to score only once.
  • Unbeaten.
  • 5 consecutive away wins.
  • scored in their last 13 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 matches.
  • 9 goals scored away last 1/2 hour.

Conclusions

  • Dusseldorf could keep a first half clean sheet but be caught out 2nd half. They have not played the top 5 at home and beat 7th and 8th at home. But this Dortmund are very reliable, scoring 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Watch out for 2nd half late goals if Dortmund are struggling to score. It should be an away win.

19:30 - Wolfsburg v Stuttgart - 1.77 Wolfsburg

  • 1-0 Stuttgart and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

Wolfsburg (8th)

  • 3 wins and a 2-2 last 4 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Not played the bottom 5 at home. Scored and conceded in 6 of 8 matches at home.
  • 2-2-1-2 goals scored at home v 6th and lower.

Stuttgart (15th)

  • 3 wins in 5 matches, 2 came at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 5 defeats in 6 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (62%).
  • All defeats away v the top 11.
  • 14 of 18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are winning their recent matches. With Wolfsburg failing to score in only 2 matches, do expect them to score at some point. Note that they are scoring 2+ goals at home v 6th and lower. Note that especially if Stuttgart scores first.
  • With 5 0-0's at halftime away for Stuttgart do not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime.

19:30 - Hertha Berlin v Augsburg - 2.38 Hertha Berlin

  • 4 draws in the last 5 head to heads.
  • Not the kind of match to prioritise if you look at the odds.

Hertha Berlin (7th)

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches. Those 2 wins came within the last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 2 matches played at home v teams below them in the league. 1-1 and 1-0.

Augsburg (14th)

  • 4 losses in their last 5 matches.
  • 4 losses in their last 5 away matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0 away defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches away.
  • Not beaten a top 15 side away.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match v the top 10 home and away.
  • 80% of goals scored and 85% of goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Where Augsburg have scored and conceded in all bar 1 match v the top 10, they have not kept this scoring habit away last 2 matches with 2 1-0 defeats. Augsburg are becoming unreliable or rather untrustworthy.
  • Do expect a goal from Hertha. They have scored in all bar 1 match and having lost only 1 match at home, I would tentatively side with Hertha not to lose.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

19:45 - Aberdeen v Dundee - 1.46 Aberdeen

  • 3 consecutive 1-0 Aberdeen wins in head to heads.

Aberdeen (4th)

  • 6 wins and 2 losses in their last 8 matches.
  • 5 wins and a loss last 6 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • 100% wins at home v 8th and lower.
  • 100% wins home and away v 10th and lower.

Dundee (11th)

  • Only 2 wins. Only 1 loss in 5 sees marked improvement. 3 of those matches were score draws though.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime away.
  • No 0-0.
  • 8 losses and a draw home and away v the top 7.
  • 4/4 away defeats v the top 7th.

Conclusions

  • Head to heads are tight. And bearing in mind that Dundee kept Rangers to 1-1, we might see a defensive display from the away side. Their record though is poor v the top 7 and best case for them today would be the score draw. Aberdeen's 100% win record v 8th and lower at home and 10th and lower home and away suggests a home win.

FRENCH LEAGUE CUP

20:00 - Orleans v Paris St-G - 1.15 PSG

  • Ligue 2 v Ligue 1.
  • In 4 of their last 5 matches, Orleans have gone to penalties in this competition.
  • 19 consecutive PSG wins in the French League Cup inclines us naturally to the away win.
  • We saw in the weekend live chats that 1.15 should really signal a goal at least before halftime (remember Genk and Olympiakos?) and 3/4 goals in total. Do pay attention to PSG team news though. It may affect the scoreline.