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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 17, 2015

7:45pm - Atl Madrid v Leverkusen  - 1.74 home

Standout Stats

1-0 to Leverkusen in February  in their previous Champions League ( CL) meeting.

Atl Madrid

  • 3 consecutive draws saw 2 0-0's
  • Only Barcelona have beaten them at home in their last 9 matches.
  • No win in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 defeats at home since February 2014.
  • Failed to score in their last 2 CL matches,  a 0-0 away at Juve and 1-0 away at Leverkusen.
  • 5 clean sheets in the CL until the 1-0 last time out.
  • 9 wins and a 0-0 draw with Chelsea in their last 10 home CL matches includes 1-0 wins v Juventus and Barcelona.
  • 5 consecutive home cl clean sheets. They must not let Leverkusen score first, if at all.

Leverkusen

  • Unbeaten in 6 in all competitions.
  • 5 consecutive clean sheets includes the one against Ath. Madrid.
  • 0-0-0-0-2-2-0 conceded in recent away matches. The teams they kept clean sheets against, on the whole, are not to the standard of 3rd in La Liga.
  • Only 2 defeats in 9 matches were 1-0 v Monaco and 0-1 v Monaco .
  • Leverkusen have been really tight in the CL, recently conceding 0-1-1-0-1-1-0-0. If they do that tonight, they will push the game into extra time worse case.
  • Atl Madrid are the most high profile side Bayer will have played away lately, wins were v Copenhagen and Zenit

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Leverkusen did not concede an  away goal so this is great platform for them today. if they score, Madrid need 3 to win.
  • Madrid are really good at home, Leverkusen are not conceding more than 1 recently away. This should be a very tight match.
  • Tough to figure out how the match will be played as the first goal is critical.
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7:45pm - Bristol City v Crewe  - 1.38 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-0 Crewe, 0-0, 1-0 Crewe in the last 3 League One head to heads.
  • this is 1st v 19th and I guess the onus is with Crewe to get the 3 points.
  • 11 points is the gap at the top, and complacency is a concern for City , and I hope they take a leaf out of NEC's book yesterday - they battered their opponents despite having a solid lead in their title race.

Bristol City

  • No defeat in 6 overall and in 3 at home
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Only losses at home v 2nd and 5th
  • 7 clean sheets in 9 matches at home to 13th and lower
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 home matches.
  • 7 wins in their last 9 home matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home
  • Scored 13 first half and 19 2nd half goals at home.
  • Scored first in 14 of 18 matches at home

Crewe

  • No draw in 10 away matches
  • Conceded in their last 5 away matches.
  • 4 match losing streak away
  • Have lost away to all top 10 sides.
  • Have only scored more than 1 goal in a single away match on 2 occasions.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 away
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away
  • 27 of 40 goals conceded away have come in the 2nd half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This could be a 2nd half match so no surprises if 0-0 at halftime. Crewe overwhelmingly concede 2nd half away from home.
  • When we hit March and your Bristol's, Juventus's and NEC's have built up a solid lead at the top of their respective leagues, the C word does come into play - complacency .
  • With Bristol City keeping clean sheets, a hope they simply out-score Crewe . Crewe have lost away to top 10 sides and don't tend to score more than 1 goal away. So if they lead, I would lay them in the expectation that the next goal scored ( if any) comes from Bristol City.
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7:45pm - Monaco v Arsenal  - 2.32 away

Standout Stats

  • 1-3 to Monaco in the first leg means Arsenal must win 0-2 tonight to go through in the most straightforward way possible.
  • Monaco need a 0-0 to go through this Champions League tie and a 1-0 should make Arsenal's task too difficult.

Monaco

  • Breached at last! A team has scored more than 1 goal against Monaco, that team was PSV. Monaco have conceded 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-1-0-1-0-2-1-0. The 2 was v PSG in the Coupe de france
  • Still it's a mighty impreesive defensive display in all competitions.
  • Monaco are tough cookies to break down at home, conceding 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1-0-0 in recent home matches.
  • The impressive defending continues in the CL, conceding 0-0-0-1-0-0-1 since 2014
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets at home in the CL

Arsenal

  • 12 wins in 14 matches in all competitions, scoring at least 2 in those 12 wins.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 away matches, with 3 consecutive 1-2 wins. Arsenal must not concede today though
  • Have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 CL matches.
  • 1-2 and 1-4 wins in their last 2 away CL matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The value is in backing Arsenal to qualify here and in a 0-2 scoreline. That is also the optimist's route.
  • Quite simply Arsenal must not concede and must score 2 to go through in the simplest way possible.
  • Monaco's defence, though, is legendary and they will be very tough to beat.  Back 0-0 pre-match and hope for a concerted period of 0-0.
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7:45pm - Raith v Hearts  - 1.3 away

Standout Stats

  • 0-4 and 1-0 for Hearts in head to heads this season. A lot tighter in the last match.
  • This is 6th v 1st in the Scottish Championship

Raith

  • Scored and conceded in their last 8 home matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • With scoring and conceding being so rife at home, it follows that Raith's recent 2 wins were 2-1
  • Let's look at Raith v Hearts, Hibs and Rangers, 0-4 loss, 0-4 loss, 1-1, 6-1 loss, 1-0 loss, 1-3 loss, 1-1, 1-2 loss. These 3 are a good gauge .
  • 83% over 2.5 goals.
  • Only 2 0-os's

Hearts

  • Complacency a problem here. Some 17 points clear at the top.
  • 6 match winning streak, 7 away
  • No defeat in 13 away matches.
  • Scored in their last 22 matches and last 10 away
  • Conceded in their last 4 away matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • Only 1 0-0  came away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The nearer we get to the end of the season, the more I am concerned with complacency from Hearts, particularly away from home. Such is their lead at the top, they can afford to lose and draw matches.
  • But Raith have not beaten Hibs, Hearts and Rangers this season , the last 4 scorelines were 1-0, 1-3, 1-1, 1-2. 3 of those very tight affairs.
  • Let's hope Raith score again and first. I would back Hearts if Raith scored first
  • Over 2.5 goals is highly likely so back over 2.5 goals if the match happens to be 0-0 at halftime
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7:45pm - Rangers v Alloa  - 1.27 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-1, 1-1, 0-1 Rangers win in the last 3 Championship head to heads. Alloa have been really good.
  • This is 3rd v 10th in the Scottish Championship

Rangers

  • With 4th and 5th breathing down Rangers neck in 3rd, Rangers need to win when at home and expected to in order to enter the end of season play-offs.
  • 4 consecutive draws, 3 of them were 1-1
  • Scored and conceded in their last 2 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home 1-1 draws
  • Only Hearts and Hibs ( twice) have beaten Rangers at home.
  • Both teams have scored in 69% of home matches
  • No 0-0 at home

Alloa

  • No draw in 5 overall and in 3 away
  • Have only beaten Cowdenbeath away from home ( twice)
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 away matches.
  • Very competitive away from home. Recent scorelines of 2-0, 2-0 ( Hibs and Hearts so no surprise), 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2, 1-0  so this is in line with head to heads. Interesting though that the big 2 scorelines were 2-0.
  • Failed to score in 10 of their last 14 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Alloa make themselves tough to beat yet lack the firepower to take advantage of relatively good defence. They seem " valiant' losers and could see teams taking until the 2nd half to break them down. Yet it seems inevitable.
  • I will " do a Roma" today and take a chance on laying the draw with Rangers recently having 4 consecutive draws.  At their best, Rangers should match Hibs and Hearts and win 2-0, yet this is not a Rangers at their best.
  • 1-0, 2-0 looks the 2 scorelines today. 1-1 hangs over them like Damocles sword but I hope Alloa's inability to score in 10 of their last 14 returns today
  • A 0-0 at halftime really would not surprise today .
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