The Danish Superliga is hotting up already. Midtjylland 0-0, Copenhagen 1-2 loss, and Brondby 0-2 win. It is advantage Brondby this early on. Brondby would be the 'old reliables' I'd take out of yesterday. A team to rely upon this season.
Onto today and its the early stages UEFA Champions League and the Scottish League Cup. Days like these have a good trading feel to them. I have researched all Scottish league cup and Champions League matches. I would suggest a strong in-play stats focus today. I hope to be online later and will monitor the in-play stats @drtclub.
SCOTTISH LEAGUE CUP
Best attacked in the following manner
- odds on favourite matches to be prioritised
- and then use in-play stats. As mentioned in an earlier Bulletin, www.williamhill.com; www.totalcorner.com; https://mobile.bet365.com/ (click on in-play)
You will see a marked improvement in research once the major leagues begin (and about 9 matches into major league seasons is where I really get going stats-wise). At the moment, I can only deal with what the coupon gives us.
19:30 - Stenhousemuir v Albion - 2.25 Sten
- League One v League Two.
- Sten have not won any recent League Cup matches.
- Albion are unbeaten in 5 matches, going to penalties in 4 of those matches.
- This suggests we side with the lower league side not to lose? Lay Stenhousemuir if Sten lead by one goal very late on. Albion have a habit of taking these games to penalties.
- Caveat - as ever we cannot gauge Albion's opponents against today's opponent.
19:45 - Alloa v Arbroath - 2.00 Alloa
- Championship v League One here.
- 4 losses and a draw....v Arbroath in recent League Cup matches for Alloa.In 3 of those matches, they did play Scottish Premiership opposition.
- At home, Alloa have been quite good. Their only loss in 6 matches came v top flight Hibs.
- Like Alloa, Arbroath's only recent loss was v Hibs. 3 penalties in 5 League Cup matches.
- Arbroath have scored 1 goal in each of their last 3 away matches.
- They have not won an away League Cup match since 2010.
- Slight nod towards Alloa not to lose today. I would not discount a 1-1 draw going to extra time/penalties.
19:45 - Annan v Berwick - 2.05 Annan
- 2 League Two teams so this might be tough to call with the season not started yet.
- Annan have only scored 2 goals once in 9 League Cup matches.
- Last 2 losses came v SPL teams.
- 1-1-0-1-1 goals scored by Annan at home in the League Cup.
- No win for Berwick in 14 matches in the Cup.
- 3-2-1-2-3-1 goals conceded by Berwick recently in the cup.
- Only 1 away win for Berwick since 2004 League Cup.
- The form points to Berwick not winning today. But then Annan also look layable, scoring 1-1-0-1-1 goals - where will they get that 2nd goal?
19:45 - Cowdenbeath v Inverness CT - 1.25 Inverness
- League Two v Championship. A reasonable gap in the leagues.
- No draw since 2015 for Cowdenbeath in the League Cup.
- 3 losses in 4 matches.
- Only 1 home win in 7 matches was v Buckie Thistle.
- Only 2 losses in 10 for Inverness in the League Cup.
- Only 2 away defeats in 13 for Inverness. On the face of it, Inverness have the best form. Note the lack of Draw for Cowdenbeath - lay the late draw?
19:45 - Dumbarton v Queens Park - 1.53 Dumbarton
- No win for Dumbarton in 11 League Cup matches. Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
- League One v League Two.
- Queens Park are unbeaten in 3 League Cup matches.
- Strictly on league cup form, lay Dumbarton if Dumbarton score first. That's the value call (and use in-play stats to confirm whether the market is right in making Dumbarton favourite).
19:45 - Dunfermline v Peterhead - 1.25 Dunfermline
- Championship v League Two.
- 3 losses in 9 came v SPL teams for Dunfermline.
- 12 wins in 14 home matches for Dunfermline in the League Cup is compelling.
- They beat Peterhead 5-1 last home League Cup match.
- Peterhead, after that loss above, beat Hearts, and Elgin in the League Cup and 0-0 last match.
- The 5-1 Dunfermline win, coupled with Dunfermline at home, suggests the market is right here.
19:45 - Falkirk v Forfar - 1.3 Falkirk
- Championship v League One.
- Only 1 loss in 7 matches in the League Cup for Falkirk.
- Same at home for Falkirk in the League Cup.
- 4 losses and a draw for Forfar in the League Cup in their last 5 matches.
- When Forfar lose, they concede 2+ goals in the League Cup.
- In-play stats for me here to confirm Falkirk's mood here. If positive shots/corners, expect 2 goals from the home side.
19:45 - Hamilton v Livingston - 2.4 Livingston
- 2 Premiership sides.
- 3-2 Hibs in the League Cup in 2017. That match was decided by a late penalty.
- In-play stats for me.
19:45 - Montrose v East Fife - 2.1 Montrose
- 2 League One times. I prefer League Cup matches with gaps in the league.
- 2 consecutive League Cup wins for Montrose. That came after 10 defeats.
- In 5 of East Fife's last 6 League Cup matches, they failed to score.
- East Fife have failed to score in 7 of their last 8 away matches.
- Focus on Montrose here given East Fife's apparent lack of League Cup enthusiasm.
19:45 - Motherwell v Edinburgh City - 1.10 Motherwell
- SPL v League Two.
- Only 2 losses in 12 League Cup matches for Motherwell came v Celtic.
- Edinburgh are League Two.
- The market expects 3/4 goals from Motherwell and looking at their form, Motherwell are up for the cup.
19:45 - Partick v Morton - 1.55 Partick
- 2 Championship sides but clear market confidence in the home side.
- Only 1 loss in 12 League Cup matches for Partick came v an SPL side.
- Only 1 loss in 9 home league cup matches for Partick.
- 4 losses in 16 League Cup matches for Morton came v St Johnstone, Aberdeen, Motherwell and Ayr United. Pretty much SPL teams.
- Looks like 2 teams up for the cup. Another for the inplay stats. Morton may provide some resistance and the value would be in laying Partick if Partick scored first. But only if confirmed via the in-play stats.
19:45 - Queen of South v Clyde - 1.28 Queen of the South
- Championship v League Two.
- Only 1 loss in 8 League Cup matches for QOTS came v Rangers.
- 3 penalty matches in their last 4.
- Only 2 losses in 16 home League cup matches for QOTS.
- Clyde have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 League Cup matches.
- Not sure the quality of teams Clyde have beaten in the League Cup. QOTS do look solid at home and up for the cup but the value seeker will note QOTS 3 extra time League Cup matches in 4 and lay a late QOTS lead.
19:45 - Ross Co v Dundee Utd - 2.05 Ross
- 2 Championship sides.
- Only 1 loss in 90 minutes in 15 League Cup matches for Ross County.
- 3 penalty matches in 4 for Ross in the League Cup.
- 6 clean sheets in 7 matches for Ross.
- 2 2-1 losses in 12 League Cup matches for Dundee United. One was v Dundee .Both teams have scored in the last 4 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 8/9 away matches.
- In-play stats led here. Dundee Utd tend to score and concede in the League Cup. Ross tends to keep clean sheets. Ross have tended towards extra time matches recently too. As I say, let the in-play stats lead.
19:45 - St Mirren v Spartans - 1.11 St Mirren
- Like the Motherwell match, 3/4 goals are expected from St Mirren.
- Premiership v Football league.
19:45 - Stirling v Brechin - 2.18 Stirling
- 2 wins in 3 League Cup matches for Stirling, a League Two team.
- Only 1 home loss in 5 matches came v Dundee, an SPL team.
- Stirling beat Brechin 2-0 this time last year.
- Brechin have failed to score in 5 of 6 League Cup matches. When they scored one goal, it ended 1-1.
- Strictly on league cup form, we oppose Brechin.
The other main football comes from early round Champions League matches. These will follow the pattern of the Scottish league Cup. In lieu of strong stats based research, take your cues from the market (focus on matches featuring strong favourites) and the in-play stats (justify the favouritism).
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
These are 2nd leg matches so we take our cues largely from the first leg result.
17:00 - HJK Helsinki v Vikingur Gota - 1.17 HJK
- 1-2 HJK from the first leg. The second goal required an own goal from Gota to give HJK the win. We tend to expect tight matches at the Faroes.
- The market has gone full circle and priced HJK with the expectation for 3/4 goals from them today.
- In 10 of their last 11 matches, HJK scored at least 2 goals, so know where the onion bag is.
- 7 consecutive home wins in all competitions for HJK is a real positive.
- No home Champions League matches for HJK since 2015 so little recent form to go with.
- Gota lasted 2 rounds of the Champions League last year. They must score 2 goals today without reply in order to go through as the away goals for HJK see them through with even a 0-1 defeat.
18:00 - Hapoel Beer Sheva v Flora Tallinn - 1.17 Hapoel
- Like HJK, the market has priced up Hapoel with the expectation for 3/4 goals from them today.
- A penalty each in the first leg saw a 1-4 Hapoel win. Flora Tallinn are out of their depth. The Israelis are expected to go a little deeper after thriving in the Europa League recently.
18:00 - Malmo FF v FC Drita - 1.07 Malmo
- 0-3 from the first leg. Malmo can afford to lose 0-2 and still progress today.
18:00 - APOEL v FK Suduva - 1.16 APOEL
- 3-1 Suduva from the first leg continued APOEL's woeful run in the Champions League. No win in 8 matches.
- APOEL's last 3 home matches in the Champions League came v Spurs, Dortmund and Real Madrid so Suduva are a little easier.
- Prior to the big names, APOEL at home were unbeaten in 6 matches. They did score 3 goals v the likes of The New Saints and Rosenborg and 2 goals v Slavia Prague.
- With APOEL rubbing shoulders with the big guns normally, the market expects payback today against an admittedly hard-to-read Suduva.
- 2-0 will do for APOEL today as they managed that 90th minute consolation goal. I would think they'll aim for 3/4 goals (in line with a 1.16 odds quote) as insurance against a Suduva away goal. If Suduva score an away goal, APOEL must score 3 goals to bring the match just to parity.
- The market has rather dismissed the first leg result as an anomoly. Value seekers will lay APOEL. In light though of APOEL's opponents in the Champions League last year, an any other home score back would be the best way to progress. Look for goals before halftime too. Back any other home, and 3-1 if Suduva score first.
19:00 - Valletta v FK Kukesi - 2.28 Valletta
- 0-0 from the first leg, the advantage is with FK Kukesi who, if scoring an away goal, will require Valletta to score 2 goals.
- A match for the in-play stats. We will look for a rising shots/corners stats from the away side to see if they go for it.
- 2 of the lesser lights. I'm going to put my neck on the line and say that these 2 will not be winning the Champions League.
19:15 - Videoton v F91 Dudelange - 1.58 Videoton
- Hungary v Luxembourg.
- 1-1 from the first leg. Advantage Videoton with the away goal and the market expectation.
- That's 3 1-1 scorelines now for Videoton in 4 Champions League matches.
- They are yet to score that 2nd goal in 5 Champions League matches. On paper, really, a Luxembourg side should be within their compass.
- No win in 10 Champions League matches for F91. They failed to score that 2nd goal in 9 matches.
- F91 look layable if scoring first. IF scoring first,Videoton must reply.
- Both sides find that 2nd goal tough to score in the Champions League. Can one of these 2 break that curse. You should bias towards Videoton but I would advise that you use in-play stats to confirm.
19:30 - Crvena Zvezda v Spartaks Jurmala - 1.11 Crvena
- It's 0-0 from the first leg and advantage Spartaks who, if scoring away, will force Crvena to score 2 goals in reply.
- Not lost in 6 matches in full time, the market are with the home side, a.k.a. red star belgrade.
- Red star will not be going deep into this competition. They last played at home 2016 and scored 2 goals in 2 home matches.
- Latvians Jurmala have a record of 0-1 loss, 1-1 and 0-0 in their 3 Champions League matches.
- The market expects Red star to score 3/4 goals today and win with ease. The value may be in backing 0-0 pre match and hope Jurmala's defence is on top.
- If Jurmula score first, back any other home score Red star.
20:00 - Legia Warsaw v Cork City - 1.31 Legia
- Even with a man advantage, Cork City could not get past the Polish giants.
- That Cork 100% home record came to an end with a Legia away goal. Cork City must reply and score first today to bring the match back on parity.
- Legia did meet the likes of Real Madrid and Dortmund in 2016 so have the ability to go deep. Their last 4 wins were all clean sheet wins, latterly 2 1-0 wins.
- 3 consecutive home wins to nil for Legia includes the likes of Sporting Lisbon. A famous 3-3 too with Real Madrid. I would warrant that Cork City are not quite at that level yet.
- Cork were last in the Champions League in 2006 where they managed 3 defeats to nil.
- I fear for Cork but will be rooting for them (my Mum is from Cork). Legia look far too polished and experienced in the Champions League to let a side with a 12 year absence get the better of them on home turf.
20:00 - Crusaders v Ludogorets - 1.25 Ludogorets
- 7-0 from the first leg. Ludogorets can afford to lose 6-0 and still progress. A dead rubber. Hence the relatively big odds for 2 sides of such differing qualities.