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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 16, 2015

Review of yesterday's matches.

A quiet day really. Kristianstads did score as I expected and won 1-0  with a 90th minute goal. Did you keep the faith and lay the very late 0-0 in the hope that my hope they'd score would come to fruition. It was the Thailand women v German women match which interested me. I did back over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.35 which, for a team who are unbackable in the match odds market, is big! 0-4 it ended as the German "b" side struggled to score. On to today...

Odds taken from www.willhill.com. The Betfair coupons were not up until the day before the matches. There will be price discrepancies so please look at the Betfair odds.

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches.

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised.

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

11:30am - Japan v Singapore  - Japan are unbackable.

Standout Stats

  • These 2 last met in 2004.
  • This is a World Cup Asia qualifier. Japan are in good nick, spanking Iran at home 4-0 at odds of about 1.31. They are unbackable today and that is a good opportunity to test the theory of Unbackables means goals galore.
  • Japan have been rather timid in World Cup (WC) qualifiers as compared to a recent 9 goal haul in Friendlies.
  • But I am talking about 2013 there and this is the first of the 2015 qualifiers. 9 wins and  a draw for Japan in their last 10 matches sees them in excellent form coming here.
  • Singapore beat Cambodia 0-4 in a recent WC qualifier.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • No real recent form in this competition. So faith in the odds. With the Japs eyeing goals, I would look at 5-0 starters here today. I think Singapore are a level or 2 down from Iraq.

12pm - Bangladesh v Tajikistan  - 1.61 away

Standout Stats

  • No recent head to heads.
  • A 1-3 loss for Bangladesh v Kyrgyzstan in 2015. Jordan beat Tajikistan 3-1 in 2015 World Cup qualifier this year.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I have no opinion here. No recent head to heads and 2 teams I have no opinion on.
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12:30pm - Cambodia v Afghanistan - 2.02 away

Standout Stats

  • Both teams have suffered heavy defeats in their 2015 World Cup qualifiers. 0-4 loss for Cameroon v Singapore and Afghanistan lost 0-6 v Syria.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • It is matches like this which would be better attacked via the in-play stats.
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12:30pm - Chinese Taipei v Thailand   -1.2 away

Standout Stats

  • No head to heads between these 2. They meet here in the World Cup asian qualifiers.
  • Thailand's 1-0 win against Vietnam was impressive enough against stubborn opponents. The win came in the 81st minute.
  • Chinese Taipei lost 0-1 to Brunei and then beat Brunei 0-2 5 days later.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I think that the market is right here. The concern with Thailand is their finishing. Their centre forwards are terrible at putting the ball in the net. If Thailand remain strong defensively, I would expect a 0-1 , 0-2 win today.
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1pm - Bhutan v China  - China unbackable.

Standout Stats

  • China are unbackable today against a Bhutan side beaten 7-0 by a terrible Hong Kong side.
  • Ignore yesterday's German Woman's match as a gauge to what to expect from an unbackable side. The Germans played a 'B" Team yesterday and their first team would have scored 7+ goals.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Expect the Chinese to score 5+ goals today and possibly win to nil. As I tend to do with these unbackable sides is to back a correct score as it is likely to be a correct score to nil. So something like 5-0, 7-0, 9-0 today incase the Chinese really click.
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1pm - Hong Kong v Maldives  - 1.34 home

Standout Stats

  • No recent head to heads.
  • Hong Kong beat Bhutan 7-0 at home in a World Cup asia qualifier. They are priced slightly higher today.
  • The Maldives lost 0-1 v Qatar and the goal was scored in the 90th minute.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • 2 sides who are not going to be winning the World Cup. I think Hong Kong will take solace from their 7-0 home win and win today, albeit less impressively. The Maldives seem to be an ultra defensive side so if this is 0-0 for a while , keep faith that Hong Kong will score eventually.
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1pm - Myanmar v South Korea  - 1.07 away

Standout Stats

  • A 2-2 draw for Myanmar against Laos gives us little to work on in this World Cup qualifier.
  • This is South Korea's first World Cup qualifier for 2015 and they seem to have a comfortable group of matches v Myanmar, Laos and Lebanon.

Profitable in-play opportunities

  • The South Koreans recently beat UAE 3-0 in a friendly so have goals in them against the right opponents.
  • As ever, with 1.07 shots, lay the 0-0 halftime score. Expect 3/4 goals minimum and a possible win to nil for the South Koreans.
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1:45pm - Malaysia v Palestine  - 2.62 away

Standout Stats

  • Not a match which interests me at all. The betting market tells you that these 2 cannot be split. When a favourite is 2.62 odds, it is a favourite under sufferance.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A match to leave alone. Lay any team who is 2-0 up here.
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2pm - South Africa v Angola - 1.98 home

Standout Stats

  • This is a World Cup friendly being played in Cape Town.
  • Last head to head was in 2013. 2-0 South Africa win.
  • In recent friendlies, South Africa have scored 1-0-1-0-0. They have had 3 0-0's in their last 4 friendlies.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-0's in friendlies for South Africa.
  • Angola, since 2012 in friendlies, have tended largely to be good defensively. They conceded 0-0-0-2-1-1-0-1-0-0-2. The last 2 goals were v Ivory Coast.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I would take a chance here and lay the late 0-0. Surely South Africa won't have a 3rd consecutive 0-0 today? That's my angle in another low-on-the-list friendly.
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2pm - Turkmenistan v Iran  - 1.18 away

Standout Stats

  • Turkmenistan lost 1-0 to Guam in the World Cup qualifier in 2015. Iran are yet to play a World Cup asia qualifier

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A case of faith in the odds today. If the odds are accurate, Iran should score 3/4 goals at least today and possibly make a breakthrough before halftime. Lay the 0-0 halftime score therefore as late as you can.
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3pm - Kyrgyzstan v Australia  - 1.12 away

Standout Stats

  • Kyrgyzstan beat bangladesh 1-3 in their sole 2015 World Cup asia qualifier.
  • Australia play their first World Cup asia qualifier today.
  • There are no head to heads or recent competitive matches with which to work. I'll take a look at Australia's recent matches to see if they have been in goal-scoring form.
  • Australia have beaten the likes of Oman and Kuwait 4-1 and 4-0. They beat China and the UAE 2-0 and drew 2-2 in a friendly with the Germans who to be frank, don't tend to be competitive on friendlies. 0-0 v Macedonia in a recent friendly.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I think Australia should win today and score at least 2 goals, perhaps maximum 4 goals. That's my angle in today. I would lay the 0-0 halftime score here today but delay as long as I can.
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4:30pm - Latvia U21 v Malta U21 - 1.73 home

Standout Stats

  • Latvia U21 have lost their last 4 qualifiers, albeit 2013 and 2014. 3-2-3-7 conceded.
  • Malta U21 failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches. 0-0 v Moldova in June this year.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Not a match I will prioritise today. Latvia u21 are not a team I would trust. It does seem as if Malta have trouble scoring.
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5pm - Andorra U21 v Lithuania U21  - 1.28 away

Standout Stats

  • 2 poor sides here but a case of the home side being poorer than the away side? Andorra U21 have lost their 2 2015 UEFA matches, 1-0 away to Ireland and 4-0 away to Slovenia.
  • Lithuania u21 have no 2015 UEFA matches played recently.In 2013 and 2014, they failed to score v England u21, and Moldova u21 twice for both teams. 1-1 v Wales latest.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I am always of the opinion that the likes of Andorra, San Marino, Gibraltar, Liechtenstein et al should always be opposed unless playing each other. Lithuania u21 are poor but Andorra u21 tend not to score and therefore lose!
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score if 0-0 after 40 minutes.
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5pm - Estonia U21 v San Marino U21 - 1.15 home

Standout Stats

  • As I said with Andorra u21 above, teams such as them and San Marino U21 are to be opposed naturally. I think the Estonian first team recently played San Marino first team and won 3-0. That is the kind of performance we expect today.
  • Estonia u21 have not played a UEFA qualifier yet in 2015. San Marino U21 have lost 0-3 v Georgia u21 this year in a UEFA qualifier.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I may not trust Estonia u21 to score by halftime. But I do expect 2/3 goals bare minimum by the 90th minute. If 0-0 at halftime, I would back 3-0 Estonia u21 correct score at enhanced odds .
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5pm - Yemen v Philippines  - 2.36 home

Standout Stats

  • In 2015 World Cup qualifiers, Yemen beat Pakistan 3-1, drew 0-0 with Pakistan and lost 0-1 to DPR Korean.
  • Philippines beat Bahrain 2-1 in 2015 in World Cup qualifiers.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A match to leave alone. 2.36 odds for the favourite again tells the story. This could go either way.
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6pm - Romania U21 v Armenia U21  - 1.35 home

Standout Stats

  • No recent head to heads.
  • Romania, in 2014 UEFA qualifiers, conceded 3 and 8 goals in a 4-3 loss v Montenegro and 8-0 loss v Germany.
  • Armenia U21 lost 4-0 to Iceland u21 and beat Belarus U21 2-1.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • 2 heavy away losses for Armenia U21 v France U21 6-0 and Germany u21 8-0 suggest they concede readily. Romania U21 are not France or Germany.
  • In 2014, Romania u21 scored 3 and 4 goals in 2 matches. A hope therefore that the odds are accurate ( as we don't really know the teams that well) and an argument can be made for Romania U21 to out-score Armenia u21.
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7:30pm - Italy v Portugal - 2.44 home

Standout Stats

  • This is a friendly being played in Switzerland and I will not be researching this match. If it was a euro qualifier then, yes.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The odds tell everything here. The market cannot split these 2 teams. The in-play stats may reveal angles in, but research won't in this case.
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7:45pm - Poland v Greece - 1.88 home

Standout Stats

  • No recent head to heads.
  • This is a friendly.
  • Poland are unbeaten in their last 9 matches in all competitions. They have scored 2+ goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 2 losses in 13 home matches for Poland in all competitions. Poland scored 2-2-2-2-4 in recent home matches.
  • Only 2 losses in 10 friendlies for Poland were v Slovakia and Scotland.
  • only 3 losses in 17 home friendlies for Poland .
  • No win in 8 for Greece and they are in sorry form. If you are losing to Northern Ireland and Faroe Islands twice, then something is terminally wrong.
  • Greece have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Greece's recent friendlies came 2014 and earlier and they suffered only 3 losses in 20 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 5 friendlies though .

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Greece are in dire recent form but in friendlies from 2014 and earlier, they have been ok. I would perhaps look to the recent form and favour Poland here today. If the Greeks score first, on their recent form, lay them
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