Limited football today. The Rome Masters I have researched the matches I see good angles in and will follow via Twitter today @drtclub.
ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY-OFF
19:45 - Aston Villa v Middlesbrough - 2.26 Aston Villa
- 0-1 Aston Villa from the first leg. This is an intriguing match. Middlesbrough simply must score first. That cancels out the Aston Villa away goal.
- Aston Villa would take a 0-0 but at 0-0 it does open the match up for a late Boro goal.
- It is tough to get an angle in, given the importance of the match.
- In-play stats I feel with be the order of the day.
- Usually in 2nd legs we see a sharp rise in goals.
- If 0-0 at halftime I would take on the 2nd half 0-0.
18:00 - Landskrona v Helsingborgs - 2.22 Helsingborgs
- No head to heads since 2011. I believe Helsingborgs are relegated to this league.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime between these 2 but really it's a sample of 11 matches between the 2. It is far to early to be confident in patterns.
- Landskrona have scored 2 goals in each of their 3 home matches so far. Loss, Draw, Win.
- Landskrona only failed to score in their last match, away.
- 3-5-0-1-2 goals scored by Helsingborgs this season. No clean sheets for Helsingborgs this season.
- Looking at the Challenge Table, patterns emerge. Please note that teams' positions are based on up to 6 games only. But note Landskrona's 2 wins only came v teams 13th and 15th, Helsingborgs are 4th.
- Helsingborgs scored 5 away v 16th and beat 10th and 11th at home 3-1 and 2-1 (Landskrona are 12th).
- It does suggest both teams scoring with Helsingborgs not losing.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market if you want but it is a small sample.
ITALIAN OPEN TENNIS - CLAY
Timea Babos v Sara Errani - 1.66 Errani
Nikoloz Basilashvili v Filippo Baldi - 1.4 Basil
- 59th v 369th.
- Baldi is usually a Challenger tour player. 2 3 setters for Baldi in qualifiers to get to this stage. He is an Italian in Italy.
- Basil went through qualifiers too.
- Basil only lasted 1 round in Madrid and same in Istanbul. Collateral form with Baldi in the Tunis Challenger where Baldi failed to get through qualifying, Basil actually reached the quarter final, on a run of 3 clay quarters. On that basis, a Basil who is not quite knocking them off the court, should get the win.
Danielle Collins v Sorana Cirstea - 1.79 Collins
Su-Wei Hsieh v Aryna Sabalenka - 1.56 Aryna
Daria Kasatkina v Ajla Tomljanovic - 1.47 Daria
- A hiccup for Daria in Prague at 1.17 odds but then a quarter final in Madrid.
- I think Daria will play well today. Ajla was a finalist on clay in Marrakesh. I don't expect a 2-0 defeat for Daria.
Fernando Verdasco v Damir Dzumhur - 1.54 Fernando
- 35th v 30th.
- 6 match losing run for Damir.
- No strong angles here. Given the poor Damir form, I would have to side with Verdasco.
Elena Vesnina v Laura Siegemund - 1.69 Laura
Lucas Pouille v Andreas Seppi - 1.82 Pouille
Irina-Camelia Begu v Shuai Peng - 1.31 Begu
- 43rd v 27th.
- Semi final at Istanbul on clay for Begu, halted in Madrid by Maria Sharapova.
- Peng's form is tough to evaluate, recent Chinese semi final.Lost to Muguruza in Madrid.
Kiki Bertens v Maria Sakkari - 1.26 Kiki
- For those who remember last year, Kiki Bertens hit a purple patch. She could replicate that today.
- 31st v 52nd.
- 6-4, 6-4 Bertens on clay in Madrid this year is ultra recent form.
- Bertens reached the final. Lucky though to get past Wozniacki who was injured.
- Semi final for Sakkari in Istanbul.
- When 2 players meet quickly we may see the loser improve with the knowledge of their opponent's tactics.
- Will that happen today? It was a tight Madrid encounter with the single break from Bertens enough in 2 sets.
- Bertens is hitting clay court form and I expect her to eventually win today.
Zarina Diyas v Angelique Kerber - 1.36 Kerber
- 66th v 21st.
- 2-0 Kerber in head to heads.
- Concern here that Kerber ended her last match - possible injury? Always in these cases, I lay the injured player particularly at odds on. 1.37 Kerber is short enough. If she is carrying a niggle, Diyas might get a shout.
Svetlana Kuznetsova v Polona Hercog - 1.77 Hercog
Diego Schwartzman v Nicolas Jarry - 1.44 Diego
- 26th v 100th.
- 2 2-0 set wins this year for Diego. Recent enough to side with Diego, albeit on hard.
- I think I will stick with these head to heads as evidence for Diego certainly not losing 2-0 today.
Maria Sharapova v Ashleigh Barty - 1.56 Maria
- 60th v 17th.
- Barty lost in 3 sets to Wozniacki last match.
- Sharapova lost in 3 sets to in-form Kiki Bertens. That form is enough for me to think Sharapova will not lose today.
Denis Shapovalov v Tomas Berdych - 1.79 Tomas
- 51st v 19th.
- 3-0 Berdych on grass last year v Denis saw 2 tie breakers and a 7-5.
- Battling Shapovalov in Madrid reaching the semi finals, beating Paire and Edmund (recent winner over Goffin and Novak) in 3 sets.
- 45th, 58th, 79th, 22nd, 31st are the recent ranks to beat Berdych so he could be vulnerable v 51st.
- I would lay Berdych if he wins the first set. I like Denis' form in Madrid on this surface.
Borna Coric v Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.66 Borna
- 48th v 91st.
- Whenever I research Coric, I remind you that recently he has only been beaten by Agut, Federer, Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, and Dominic Thiem (recently winner on clay over Rafa Nadal).
- Tsitsipas though has been in superb clay form. Finalist in Barcelona, semi finalist in Estoril (3 setter) but suddenly.
- 3-3-3-3-3-2 (one tie breaker) sets recently for Tsitsipas does suggest the value may be in laying Coric if Coric wins the first set. Coric though, has only been beaten by some solid players so it may not work, but we know in Tsitsipas that we have a clay court player in form.
Anastasija Sevastova v Kristina Mladenovic - 1.72 Sev
Petra Martic v Elina Svitolina - 1.38 Elina
- 90th v 6th. On rankings alone, the odds are right.
- 3 setter on clay in the French Open last year went to Elina.
- I cannot get a form angle in here. 2 3 setters for Elina recently suggests that Elina will fight back if losing the first set.
Marco Cecchinato v David Goffin - 1.28 Goffin
- 110th v 7th.
- Marco is an Italian in Italy.
- Marco won in Budapest on clay. A poor Munich though.
- Goffin did have a hiccup v Kyle Edmund but is a reliable player. Stick with him even if all seems lost.
Peter Gojowczyk v Lorenzo Sonego - 1.63 Sonego
- 60th v 213rd. Quite a difference in rankings.Sonego is an Italian in Italy.
- 6 losses for Peter in a row tells us he is not getting deep into competitions. He beat Sam Querrey 6-2 7-6 in the first round here.
- Sonego actually reached the quarter finals at Budapest. A surprise to see the high ranked player Sonego as favourite. I was going to say to lay Peter if he won the first set.
Philipp Kohlschreiber v Jack Sock - 1.63 Kohl
- 29th v 8th.
- For a top 8 player, Sock is going through some poor form.
- Kohlschreiber was a finalist in Munich on clay, Lost to Kevin Anderson (another top 20 player) in Madrid.
- Here, he took 3 sets, 2 tie breakers to beat Khachanov.
- Sock lost to Cuevas in Madrid. 6-4 6-0 last 2 sets suggests a possible niggle for Sock.
- I would lay Sock if Sock wins the first set.
Shuai Zhang v Jelena Ostapenko - 1.51 Jelena
- 35th v 7th.
- Ostapenko a finalist on hard in the Miami Masters.Semi finalist for Zhang on clay in Prague.
- No strong angles here.
Ryan Harrison v Marin Cilic - 1.35 Cilic
- 47th v 6th.
- Cilic has won the last 4 head to heads.
- The Australian Open this year saw 2 tie breakers and a 3-0 Cilic win.
- Harrison has seen 4 tie breakers in his last 3 matches.
- Cilic shock loss in Istanbul to Jaziri on clay. Was he fulfilling an obligation to play there? It went against form.
- Last year, Cilic won in Istanbul, and reached the quarter finals here in Rome. Is he out for form? If so, lay him at 1.36 odds given Harrison has shown some fight with those tie breaker sets recently.