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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, December 15, 2020

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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

18:00 - Wolves v Chelsea - 1.75 Chelsea

Wolves  - 13th

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches came v Arsenal. 2 consecutive defeats without scoring.
  • 5 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side home or away.
  • 4/6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 3 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Chelsea - 5th

  • Only 2 defeats, includes last match away to a small crowd filled Everton.
  • 0-0-0-1 goals conceded last 4 matches.
  • 6 wins and a 3-3 v 11th and lower, scoring 2-4 goals.
  • 8/11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Chelsea's form v 11th and lower is emphatic, scoring 2+ goals in all win bar 1. Will that continue against Wolves? They have not beaten a top 10 side home or away. The Challenge Table is emphatic.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, lay the 0-0 for the second half.

20:00 - Man City v West Brom - 1.12 Man City

Man City - 9th

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 2 wins and a draw last 3 matches, all clean sheets.
  • After having real trouble scoring that 2nd goal, City scored 5-2-0 goals last 3 matches. The 0 was in a Manchester Derby.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3/3 wins at home v 15th and lower, without conceding.
  • 8/11 goals scored at home came 1st half.

West Brom - 19th

  • Only 1 win came at home v Sheffield United.
  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • 1.12 suggests City will continue with their 2+ goals and possible win to nil. We do expect a goal at least before halftime.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

SPANISH LA LIGA

21:00 - Real Madrid v Athletic Bilbao - 1.51 Real Madrid

Real Madrid - 3rd

  • Vastly improved, and all-of-a-sudden improvement. Win v Mgladbach in the Champions League and great win v Atl Madrid in the Madrid derby at the weekend.
  • 2 consecutive wins to nil v Sevilla and Atl Madrid.
  • Scored in their last 7 matches.
  • Losses at home came v 6th and 14th.
  • 5/8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Atl Bilbao - 12th

  • 3 of their last 4 wins came at home.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw away.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 7 away matches.
  • Not played the top 4 home or away.
  • 8/10 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This is all about whether we can trust Real Madrid. Recent evidence (solid wins v Mgladbach and Atl Madrid) suggests that they have turned it around very quickly and could continue this momentum today. 2 consecutive clean sheets in the league too.
  • If 0-0 at halftime, expect 2nd half goals.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

  • As you can see by the odds, this is a tough old coupon this evening, with 5 matches where the favourite is about 2.4 odds or higher. The market cannot split the sides.

17:30 - QPR v Stoke - 2.8 Stoke

QPR - 19th

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Conceded last 8 and last 5 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 7 side home or away.
  • 7/11 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Stoke City - 8th

  • Only 5 defeats.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.
  • All clean sheets v 17th and lower away with 3 0-0's.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form QPR have not beaten a top 7 side home or away and play 8th away.
  • Stoke are unbeaten v 11th and lower home or away. Note the 0-0's. Back 0-0 pre match?

19:45

Bournemouth v Wycombe - 1.3 Bournemouth

Bournemouth - 2nd

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Only 1 home loss saw an heroic comeback from 0-3 to 2-3.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 4 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Did lose away to 24th and have had a 1-1 draw v 22nd.
  • 13 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Wycombe - 23rd

  • Only 2 wins.
  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats away v the top 13.
  • 6/7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I will take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market as Bournemouth are consistently scoring 2 goals at home and it's not a stretch to think we'll get 1 in the first 45 minutes.
  • This should be a comfortable night for Bournemouth but there is a warning sign. 1-1 and 0-1 loss v the bottom 3 this season. Significant? Or scoring 2+ goals last 4 home matches to resolve that?

Bristol City v Millwall - 2.74 Bristol City

Bristol City - 7th

  • Only 2 wins in 6 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home, only 1 at fulltime.
  • 4 wins and a 0-1 loss at home v 12th and lower.
  • 6/8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Millwall - 17th

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away, 3 at fulltime.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 14.
  • 6/7 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Back 0-0 pre match in the hope for another 0-0 at halftime. Cash out if so.
  • Expect a 2nd half goal at least if 0-0 at halftime.
  • 2.74 suggests the market cannot split these 2 but Bristol City's record v 12th and lower is impressive and may give them the advantage against a Millwall with no win in 10 matches.

Nottm Forest v Sheff Wed - 2.38 Nottm Forest

Nottm Forest - 21st

  • 6 losses and a draw last 7 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten at home v 18th and lower.

Sheffield Wednesday - 24th

  • As we know, have scored 2 goals only once, first match of the season.
  • 3 draws and 3 defeats recently.
  • 5 defeats in 6 away.
  • Conceded last 6 away matches.
  • Have lost away to 20th and 23rd.

Conclusions

  • No wonder the market gives Forest a chance. Look at their recent form, and we'd leave them alone. But v 18th and lower, they are unbeaten, albeit scoring and conceding and 2 1-1 draws.
  • Sheff Wed, if continuing to fail to score that 2nd goal, will give us a trading angle if they score first i.e. lay them but cover the 0-1 scoreline.

Barnsley v Preston - 2.42 Barnsley

Barnsley - 13th

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • Conceded last 6 matches.
  • All wins bar 1 have come v 16th and lower.
  • 7/9 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Preston - 15th

  • No draw in 8 away.
  • 6 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 6 matches away.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 6 away matches too!
  • 14/18 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2.42 suggests that this is wide open and it is with Preston. It is either death or glory for Preston, scoring and /or conceding 2 goals away far too regularly.
  • Strong 2nd half goal trends particularly for Preston so lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Both teams to score is a Preston away angle. I would lay any side were they to lead 2-0/0-2 here today.

20:00 - Watford v Brentford - 2.8 Watford

  • This is as well-matched as a 2.8 the favourite would suggest.
  • Both sides in hot form, with only 3 defeats all season.
  • 4 clean sheets in 6 matches for Watford. 5 clean sheets in 8 matches for Brentford
  • Since 3rd November, Watford have only 1 loss but Brentford are unbeaten.
  • 4 home wins in 5 for Watford plays 4 wins in 5 away for Brentford.
  • 4th v 6th.Notably Watford have failed to beat a top 7 side. Brentford have failed to beat a top 9 side.
  • Far too evenly matched these 2.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

17:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Mgladbach - 2.56 Mgladbach

Frankfurt - 9th

  • Only 2 wins came within the first 3 matches of the season.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match.
  • No clean sheets.
  • 2 defeats came away v the top 4.
  • 4/5 goals conceded at home came 2nd half, and 4/6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Mgladbach - 8th

  • 3 score draws in 4 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Win, Loss, Draw away.
  • 3-3-3-2 goals scored away recently.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 2 defeats only v the top 5 away.

Conclusions

  • 2.56 the favourite for a reason. Both sides only tend to lose away v the top 5 sides and have very similar form throughout.
  • Will Mgladbach score 2+ goals away. That is certainly a good foundation.

19:30

Stuttgart v Union Berlin - 2.22 Stuttgart

Stuttgart - 7th

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 2 consecutive wins includes v Dortmund.
  • No home win.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 matches and last 5 at home.

Union Berlin - 6th

  • Draw, Loss, Draw latest.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Win, Loss away. Loss in the Berlin derby.
  • Scored last 11 matches.
  • Not played the top 7 away.
  • All wins have come v 12th and lower.
  • 86% goals conceded, 75% goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Gap in form with Union Berlin who have not played the top 7 away.
  • Both teams could score today.

Hertha Berlin v Mainz - 1.82 Hertha Berlin

Hertha Berlin - 11th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 home win came in the Berlin derby last match.
  • Conceded last 5 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not played the bottom 5 home or away.
  • Not played the bottom 9 at home.
  • 5/7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Mainz - 17th

  • Only 1 win.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • No clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats home and away v the top 10.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Mainz are highly likely to concede.
  • Big gaps in form for Hertha Muddies the form. Not played bottom 9 at home or bottom 5 home or away.

Werder Bremen v Dortmund - 1.61 Dortmund

Werder Bremen - 13th

  • 5 consecutive 1-1 draws ended with 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 1 home win came v newly promoted Bielefeld.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home and conceded last 3 at home.
  • Only wins have come v 16th and lower.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal at home.

Dortmund - 5th

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches has coincided with the Champions League.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Win, Win, Win, Draw away.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • All 9 away goals were scored 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Dortmund are still not trustworthy as shown by their last embarrassing defeat to newly promoted Stuttgart. They do still score away from home which has been a reliable pattern.
  • Werder Bremen should ordinarily give Dortmund a chance. They have not scored that 2nd goal at home.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:30 - Udinese v Crotone - 1.7 Udinese

Udinese - 10th

  • A draw and 3 wins last 4 matches.
  • Win, Loss, Win at home recently.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Wins v 18th and 19th.

Crotone - 20th

  • Only 1 win came last match.
  • 4 defeats and a 0-0 away.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 12 side.

Conclusions

  • Udinese are putting together a solid run which could continue v bottom side Crotone. Crotone did win their last match, but was was their only win.

19:45 - Benevento v Lazio - 1.74 Lazio

Benevento - 15th

  • Only 3 wins, 2 were 1-0.
  • Only one home win was a 1-0.
  • Failed to score last 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3 wins have come v 12th and lower.

Lazio - 9th

  • 2 defeats in 3 matches. Poor stuff again last match at home v Hellas Verona.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • Failed to score in only one match.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All wins away v 16th and lower.

Conclusions

  • This should be a match for Lazio to target the win, what with all wins away v 16th and lower.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Lazio have been in really poor and unreliable form of late, but did provide us a winning trade last match with a goal 2nd half to equalise, despite eventually losing the match.

BELGIAN JULIPER LEAGUE

17:45

Royal Mouscron-Peruwelz v Oud-Heverlee Leuven - 2.46 Leuven

Mouscron - 17th

  • Only 3 wins have come within the last 6 matches.
  • A draw and 2 wins at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • 0-0 at home v 1st, 3-1 win v 4th, 1-1 v 5th.

Leuven - 3rd

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 2+ goals scored in their last 10 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 10th and lower scoring 2+ goals v 12th and lower home and away.

Conclusions

  • Everything points to Leuven - 2 goals v 12th and lower, unbeaten v 10th and lower, scoring in every match, 3 consecutive wins. Everything...apart from the market! The market gives Mouscron a chance, maybe based on their topsy-turvy form v the top 5 at home, unbeaten, not conceding that 2nd goal.
  • Seasonal form says Leuven here with their 2 goals threatened but...

Cercle Brugge v Charleroi - 2.26 Charleroi

Cercle Brugge - 13th

  • 6 defeats in 7 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home defeats.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 16 matches.
  • All defeats v the top 7, all bar 1 coming away.
  • 3-0 loss last head to head.
  • 9/13 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Charleroi - 5th

  • Won 6/6 at the start of the season but only 2 wins since.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away matches.
  • Unbeaten away v 15th and lower.
  • 10/14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Charleroi are given a chance of their unbeaten away form v 15th and lower extends to 13th in the league.
  • These 2 are hardly in form which is the only niggle in trusting Charleroi.

20:00

Anderlecht v KV Oostende - 1.87 Anderlecht

Anderlecht - 6th

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 2 draws and a win last 3 matches.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No defeat in 8 at home.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2-2 last head to head.
  • Losses came away v the top 4.
  • All 5 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Oostende - 9th

  • After failing to win in 5 matches, 2 consecutive wins.
  • 3 away losses ended with an away win.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, only one at fulltime.
  • All wins bar one have come v 12th and lower.
  • 7/9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I would favour Anderlecht, unbeaten at home and with 3 consecutive clean sheets. They play an Oostende side only tending to beat 12th and lower.
  • High % of 0-0's at halftime for both teams. I would expect goals 2nd half.

Sint Truiden v Kfco Beerschot Wilrijk - 2.44 Beerschot

Sint Truiden - 18th

  • Only 2 wins did come at home.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 3 home matches.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home (25%).
  • 5 losses and a draw v the top 6.
  • 7/9 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • 6/9 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Beerschot - 4th

  • After 2 wins, 2 consecutive losses.
  • Conceded last 13 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • 6 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 3-3-1-5-5-2-3 goals conceded away v 5th and lower.
  • 6-3 win last head to head.
  • 11/16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. This should be a goal fest. No wonder 4th in the league are not strong favourites, with the amount of goals they concede away.
  • Both teams to score has a strong chance. I would consider backing any other home score and any other away score in the correct score market with a view to trading if the goals start flowing early.