Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, August 15, 2017

The English Championship and Champions League first leg matches. Thanks Tuesday! These matches are best played via in-play stats, if played at all. There is a Scottish Challenge Cup on at 19:45 and if anywhere near as tradable as the Scottish League Cup, then I'll be tweeting and monitoring the in-play stats @drtclub.

THE ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Leeds v Fulham - 2.58 Leeds

  • 4 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads. I would be keen to lay any late 1-1 here. This sequence surely cannot continue indefinitely?
  • Fulham has had 2 1-1 draws this season so that furthers my desire to lay any 1-1 today. Sequences are there to end.
  • Leeds are unbeaten this season with a 2-3 win and a 0-0.
  • Note 2.58 favourite. The market cannot split these teams.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Fulham away matches against top-half teams and +3.5 goals in 5/8 Fulham such matches.
  • Leeds have won 10/15 home matches.

19:45 - Millwall v Ipswich - 2.14 Millwall

  • 2-0 Ipswich and 1-3 Ipswich in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Ipswich have won 6/10 away matches against promoted teams and they have scored first in 10/13 such matches.
  • Bottom-half promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 55% of home matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
  • Ipswich has won their 2 home matches this season. Millwall lost 1-0 and drew 1-1 so far this season.
  • Millwall are a relative unknown in this better league. A watching brief therefore.

19:45 - Derby v Preston - 1.99 Derby

  • 0-0, 0-1 Derby and 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads.
  • Derby have won 6/9 home matches against top-half teams.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Preston away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • 1-1 and 0-2 loss Derby in their 2 openers.
  • Preston 1-0 win and 0-0 in their 2 matches. 79th minute winner for Preston.
  • Will we see a concerted period of 0-0 here? Only 2 matches to go on, of course, is nowhere near enough to find patterns.

19:45 - Hull v Wolves - 2.76 Hull

  • Hull City are newly relegated. The market cannot split these teams.
  • Top-six relegated teams have scored first in 61% of home matches against top-six teams since 2012-13 while Wolves have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against relegated teams.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Wolves away matches against relegated teams.
  • 1-1 and 4-1 win Hull. Draw was v Aston Villa.
  • Wolves has won to nil their 2 matches. Is their new manager. This will be a tight match. Hull's 1-1 v Villa could be the scoreline we see today against an obviously better-off Wolves.

19:45 - Middlesbrough v Burton - 1.48 Boro

  • No head to heads. Newly promoted Burton.
  • Middle-third relegated teams have scored first in 60% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13 while Burton have conceded first in 11/18 away matches.
  • Burton have drawn the first half in 10/15 away matches.
  • 1-0 loss and 1-0 win for Boro this season. Burton 0-1 loss and 4-1 loss v Hull. The nail in the coffin was a red card v Hull so we don't know whether it would be have been tighter.
  • The market expects Boro to win today. I do recall Burton kept it tight for 50 minutes v Hull.

19:45 - Barnsley v Nottm Forest - 2.7 Barnsley

  • 2-5 Forest and 0-1 Barnsley in the last 2 head to heads.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Barnsley home matches and they have drawn the first half in 7/11 home matches.
  • Nottm Forest have lost 10/14 away matches.
  • 3-1 and 1-2 losses for Barnsley this season. 1-0 and 3-4 win Forest.
  • The market, yet again, cannot split these sides. It seems if Barnsley score, they can be layed? They have scored and conceded without winning twice this season.

19:45 - Birmingham v Bolton - 1.88 Birmingham

  • 3 consecutive 1-0 wins for Birningham in head to heads. Will this 'tight match' pattern continue today?
  • Birmingham have conceded first in 7/10 home matches.
  • Bottom-half promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 56% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
  • 1-0 loss and 2-1 win Birmingham v 2-3 loss and 1-1 draw Bolton. Note Bolton are scoring and conceding without winning. Given the market has nodded towards Birmingham, dare we lay Bolton if Bolton scored first given their recent patterns?

19:45 - Cardiff v Sheff Utd - 2.04 Cardiff

  • 1-1, 1-1, 0-2 Cardiff in head to heads.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 6/9 Cardiff home matches against promoted teams. Middle-third promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 53% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
  • There have been -1.5 goals in 6/9 Cardiff home matches against promoted teams.
  • 2 wins without conceding for Cardiff this season. 1-0 win and 1-0 loss Sheff Utd. This could be a battle of the defences. Again, I repeat that it is difficult to find patterns based on 2 matches this season.

19:45 - Brentford v Bristol City - 2.12 Brentford

  • Brentford are unbeaten in 6 consecutive head to heads.
  • Brentford have scored first in 9/11 home matches while Bristol City have lost 11/16 away matches.
  • Bristol City have conceded first in 13/19 away matches.
  • 1-0 loss and 3-4 loss for Brentford this season. 3-1 win and 2-1 loss for Bristol City this season.
  • Do Brentford enjoy meeting Bristol City and can we rely on the head to heads to lay Bristol City if Bristol City scores first?

20:00 - Reading v Aston Villa - 2.8 Aston Villa

  • 1-2 Aston Villa and 1-3 Reading in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Reading have won 13/17 home matches while Aston Villa have lost 9/12 away matches.
  • Reading have scored first in 13/17 home matches.
  • Both sides have a 1-1 draw and a loss to nil this season.
  • 2.8 odds? Tells us this is a tough match to crack!

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

These are first leg matches. I personally find these matches muddling. The away goal is forever in the minds of the managers. The away goal rule affects tactics.

17:00 - Qarabag Fk v FC Copenhagen - 2.46 Qarabag

  • Azerbaijan v Denmark in the first leg. Qarabag are unbeaten in the Champions League in recent matches. They have not conceded 2 goals in a recent Champions League match. But then ...context. The teams they have met, how do they weigh up against FC Copenhagen?
  • Copenhagen for me has met the better quality of opponent in the Champions League.

19:45 - Hoffenheim v Liverpool - 2.36 Liverpool

  • This is Hoffenheim's first appearance in the Champions League. Klopp will know all about the Hoff (as will we!!).
  • Liverpool were last in the Champions League in 2014.
  • This will be a very entertaining match, I am sure. If Liverpool's defence is as suspect as it was domestically, Hoff are a team who can exploit this.
  • I have no angles at all.

19:45 - APOEL v Slavia Prague - 2.8 APOEL

  • I am sorry, I haven't a clue as the American TV show would say. 2 peripheral leagues. 2.8 odds for the favourite. Says everything! Inplay stats today or wait for the 2nd leg where we will have an angle.

19:45 - Young Boys v CSKA Moscow - 2.6 Young Boys

  • Young Boys tend to be out-of-their-depth in the Champions League, and met the likes of Monaco, Shakhtar Donetsk, Mgladbach and Dinamo Kiev.
  • Young Boys has tended to score at least 1 goal in home Champions League matches, even in defeat.
  • CSKA Moscow last met solid sides in the Champions League, such as Tottenham, Monaco, and Bayer Leverkusen, undoubtedly from leagues far stronger than the Swiss Super League.
  • Both sides will stutter against better quality sides but it seems that they are meeting, today, a team that they should be competitive against. The market, in quoting a favourite at 2.6 odds, agrees that it is tough to split these sides.
  • Should we expect Young Boys to score as they tend to at home?

19:45 - Sporting Lisbon v FCSB - 1.31 Sporting Lisbon

  • Portugal v Steaua Bucharest (Romania). The market has decided that Sporting Lisbon is the likeliest winner.
  • Admittedly in 2016, Sporting Lisbon ended up playing the likes of Real Madrid, Dortmund, CSKA Moscow, Legia Warsaw.
  • Steaua Bucharest met Man City last year and lost easily.
  • Sporting Lisbon were competitive in defeat to strong teams mentioned early, without getting spanked (1-2 Real Madrid loss for instance).
  • I think Sporting Lisbon will be tough to score against tonight but if conceding first, FCSB should be layed.

IRISH PREMIER DIVISION

19:45 - Limerick v Shamrock Rovers - 2.28 Shamrock Rovers

  • 0-2 Shamrock and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 4th.
  • Shamrock R have won 9/13 away matches against middle-third teams and they have won the first half in 10/14 such matches.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 6/11 Limerick FC home matches.

Limerick

  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 4 side home or away.

Shamrock

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 2 draws all season.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 3 away wins.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lay any late draw, based mostly on Shamrock.
  • Other than that, 2 poor sides.

19:45 - Sligo Rovers v Bray - 2.6 Sligo Rovers

  • 3-2 Sligo and 2-2 in the last 2 matches.
  • This is 11th v 5th.
  • Bray have won the first half in 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams and they have scored first in 8/10 such matches.
  • There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Sligo R. home matches.

Sligo Rovers

  • 4 consecutive draws.
  • 11 draws in 16 matches. Yikes!
  • 5 draws in 6 home matches.
  • Only 2 losses at home v top 2.
  • 7 draws at home.

Bray

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Both teams have scored in 9 away matches.

Conclusions

  • I think both teams could score today. Given Sligo Rovers love a draw, I would have to lay Sligo if Sligo scores first.