DRT Daily Research Bulletin, August 15, 2017
The English Championship and Champions League first leg matches. Thanks Tuesday! These matches are best played via in-play stats, if played at all. There is a Scottish Challenge Cup on at 19:45 and if anywhere near as tradable as the Scottish League Cup, then I'll be tweeting and monitoring the in-play stats @drtclub.
THE ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP
19:45 - Leeds v Fulham - 2.58 Leeds
- 4 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads. I would be keen to lay any late 1-1 here. This sequence surely cannot continue indefinitely?
- Fulham has had 2 1-1 draws this season so that furthers my desire to lay any 1-1 today. Sequences are there to end.
- Leeds are unbeaten this season with a 2-3 win and a 0-0.
- Note 2.58 favourite. The market cannot split these teams.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Fulham away matches against top-half teams and +3.5 goals in 5/8 Fulham such matches.
- Leeds have won 10/15 home matches.
19:45 - Millwall v Ipswich - 2.14 Millwall
- 2-0 Ipswich and 1-3 Ipswich in the last 2 head to heads.
- Ipswich have won 6/10 away matches against promoted teams and they have scored first in 10/13 such matches.
- Bottom-half promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 55% of home matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
- Ipswich has won their 2 home matches this season. Millwall lost 1-0 and drew 1-1 so far this season.
- Millwall are a relative unknown in this better league. A watching brief therefore.
19:45 - Derby v Preston - 1.99 Derby
- 0-0, 0-1 Derby and 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads.
- Derby have won 6/9 home matches against top-half teams.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Preston away matches against bottom-six teams.
- 1-1 and 0-2 loss Derby in their 2 openers.
- Preston 1-0 win and 0-0 in their 2 matches. 79th minute winner for Preston.
- Will we see a concerted period of 0-0 here? Only 2 matches to go on, of course, is nowhere near enough to find patterns.
19:45 - Hull v Wolves - 2.76 Hull
- Hull City are newly relegated. The market cannot split these teams.
- Top-six relegated teams have scored first in 61% of home matches against top-six teams since 2012-13 while Wolves have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against relegated teams.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 7/9 Wolves away matches against relegated teams.
- 1-1 and 4-1 win Hull. Draw was v Aston Villa.
- Wolves has won to nil their 2 matches. Is their new manager. This will be a tight match. Hull's 1-1 v Villa could be the scoreline we see today against an obviously better-off Wolves.
19:45 - Middlesbrough v Burton - 1.48 Boro
- No head to heads. Newly promoted Burton.
- Middle-third relegated teams have scored first in 60% of home matches against bottom-six teams since 2012-13 while Burton have conceded first in 11/18 away matches.
- Burton have drawn the first half in 10/15 away matches.
- 1-0 loss and 1-0 win for Boro this season. Burton 0-1 loss and 4-1 loss v Hull. The nail in the coffin was a red card v Hull so we don't know whether it would be have been tighter.
- The market expects Boro to win today. I do recall Burton kept it tight for 50 minutes v Hull.
19:45 - Barnsley v Nottm Forest - 2.7 Barnsley
- 2-5 Forest and 0-1 Barnsley in the last 2 head to heads.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Barnsley home matches and they have drawn the first half in 7/11 home matches.
- Nottm Forest have lost 10/14 away matches.
- 3-1 and 1-2 losses for Barnsley this season. 1-0 and 3-4 win Forest.
- The market, yet again, cannot split these sides. It seems if Barnsley score, they can be layed? They have scored and conceded without winning twice this season.
19:45 - Birmingham v Bolton - 1.88 Birmingham
- 3 consecutive 1-0 wins for Birningham in head to heads. Will this 'tight match' pattern continue today?
- Birmingham have conceded first in 7/10 home matches.
- Bottom-half promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 56% of away matches against middle-third teams since 2012-13.
- 1-0 loss and 2-1 win Birmingham v 2-3 loss and 1-1 draw Bolton. Note Bolton are scoring and conceding without winning. Given the market has nodded towards Birmingham, dare we lay Bolton if Bolton scored first given their recent patterns?
19:45 - Cardiff v Sheff Utd - 2.04 Cardiff
- 1-1, 1-1, 0-2 Cardiff in head to heads.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 6/9 Cardiff home matches against promoted teams. Middle-third promoted teams have had -2.5 goals in 53% of away matches against top-six teams since 2012-13.
- There have been -1.5 goals in 6/9 Cardiff home matches against promoted teams.
- 2 wins without conceding for Cardiff this season. 1-0 win and 1-0 loss Sheff Utd. This could be a battle of the defences. Again, I repeat that it is difficult to find patterns based on 2 matches this season.
19:45 - Brentford v Bristol City - 2.12 Brentford
- Brentford are unbeaten in 6 consecutive head to heads.
- Brentford have scored first in 9/11 home matches while Bristol City have lost 11/16 away matches.
- Bristol City have conceded first in 13/19 away matches.
- 1-0 loss and 3-4 loss for Brentford this season. 3-1 win and 2-1 loss for Bristol City this season.
- Do Brentford enjoy meeting Bristol City and can we rely on the head to heads to lay Bristol City if Bristol City scores first?
20:00 - Reading v Aston Villa - 2.8 Aston Villa
- 1-2 Aston Villa and 1-3 Reading in the last 2 head to heads.
- Reading have won 13/17 home matches while Aston Villa have lost 9/12 away matches.
- Reading have scored first in 13/17 home matches.
- Both sides have a 1-1 draw and a loss to nil this season.
- 2.8 odds? Tells us this is a tough match to crack!
UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
These are first leg matches. I personally find these matches muddling. The away goal is forever in the minds of the managers. The away goal rule affects tactics.
17:00 - Qarabag Fk v FC Copenhagen - 2.46 Qarabag
- Azerbaijan v Denmark in the first leg. Qarabag are unbeaten in the Champions League in recent matches. They have not conceded 2 goals in a recent Champions League match. But then ...context. The teams they have met, how do they weigh up against FC Copenhagen?
- Copenhagen for me has met the better quality of opponent in the Champions League.
19:45 - Hoffenheim v Liverpool - 2.36 Liverpool
- This is Hoffenheim's first appearance in the Champions League. Klopp will know all about the Hoff (as will we!!).
- Liverpool were last in the Champions League in 2014.
- This will be a very entertaining match, I am sure. If Liverpool's defence is as suspect as it was domestically, Hoff are a team who can exploit this.
- I have no angles at all.
19:45 - APOEL v Slavia Prague - 2.8 APOEL
- I am sorry, I haven't a clue as the American TV show would say. 2 peripheral leagues. 2.8 odds for the favourite. Says everything! Inplay stats today or wait for the 2nd leg where we will have an angle.
19:45 - Young Boys v CSKA Moscow - 2.6 Young Boys
- Young Boys tend to be out-of-their-depth in the Champions League, and met the likes of Monaco, Shakhtar Donetsk, Mgladbach and Dinamo Kiev.
- Young Boys has tended to score at least 1 goal in home Champions League matches, even in defeat.
- CSKA Moscow last met solid sides in the Champions League, such as Tottenham, Monaco, and Bayer Leverkusen, undoubtedly from leagues far stronger than the Swiss Super League.
- Both sides will stutter against better quality sides but it seems that they are meeting, today, a team that they should be competitive against. The market, in quoting a favourite at 2.6 odds, agrees that it is tough to split these sides.
- Should we expect Young Boys to score as they tend to at home?
19:45 - Sporting Lisbon v FCSB - 1.31 Sporting Lisbon
- Portugal v Steaua Bucharest (Romania). The market has decided that Sporting Lisbon is the likeliest winner.
- Admittedly in 2016, Sporting Lisbon ended up playing the likes of Real Madrid, Dortmund, CSKA Moscow, Legia Warsaw.
- Steaua Bucharest met Man City last year and lost easily.
- Sporting Lisbon were competitive in defeat to strong teams mentioned early, without getting spanked (1-2 Real Madrid loss for instance).
- I think Sporting Lisbon will be tough to score against tonight but if conceding first, FCSB should be layed.
IRISH PREMIER DIVISION
19:45 - Limerick v Shamrock Rovers - 2.28 Shamrock Rovers
- 0-2 Shamrock and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
- This is 7th v 4th.
- Shamrock R have won 9/13 away matches against middle-third teams and they have won the first half in 10/14 such matches.
- There have been +2.5 goals in 6/11 Limerick FC home matches.
- Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
- Not beaten a top 4 side home or away.
- 3 losses in 4 matches.
- Only 2 draws all season.
- No draw in 11 away.
- No 0-0.
- Only 3 away wins.
- Lay any late 0-0.
- Lay any late draw, based mostly on Shamrock.
- Other than that, 2 poor sides.
19:45 - Sligo Rovers v Bray - 2.6 Sligo Rovers
- 3-2 Sligo and 2-2 in the last 2 matches.
- This is 11th v 5th.
- Bray have won the first half in 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams and they have scored first in 8/10 such matches.
- There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Sligo R. home matches.
- 4 consecutive draws.
- 11 draws in 16 matches. Yikes!
- 5 draws in 6 home matches.
- Only 2 losses at home v top 2.
- 7 draws at home.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Both teams have scored in 9 away matches.
- I think both teams could score today. Given Sligo Rovers love a draw, I would have to lay Sligo if Sligo scores first.