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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, February 14, 2017

I would ordinarily leave the English Championship alone. It is a league known for its competitive nature and therein lies my concerns!
So read the research on this basis. Looking at all of the research, the Barcelona match is stand-out for me from a 'readability' perspective.
Next Sheffield Wednesday look reliable enough; Notts Forest have conceded 2 goals against 9 of the top 10 teams they have met away - they meet the 10th today. Is this enough to expect Fulham to score 2 goals at least today?; Brighton's 6 match home winning run makes them of interest at home. Those are my matches of interest. I have not researched all of the English Championship, rather gone by a) odds on teams first then b) teams I know (Wolves and Newcastle).

19:45 - Aston Villa v Barnsley - 1.79 Aston Villa

Aston Villa 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Barnsley are a top 10 team and Villa have had 4 score draws and a 1-0 v top 11 teams at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Aston Villa other stats

  • 5 losses and a draw in their last 6 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • Only scored 2 goals once home and away v the top 10.

Barnsley other stats

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All away defeats bar 1 came v top 9 teams (Villa are 16th).
  • Against 11th-18th away from home, Barnsley have scored 2-3-2-4-2-1-4 goals. Interesting!
  • 15 of 21 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Aston Villa tend to draw v top 10 teams at home. This suggests laying Villa if Villa score first, particularly if you look at Barnsley's excellent run of scoring 2 goals v 11th-18th away.
  • That is the sole angle for me. Note Barnsley have a strong scoring record away.

19:45 - Sheffield Wednesday v Blackburn - 1.64 Sheff Wed

Sheff Wed 100% stats

  • 6th in the league. Having a good season.
  • Beaten all bottom 3 sides (Blackburn are bottom 3), 3 of those wins were 1-0.
  • No home match with 4 goals exactly.

Sheff Wed other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches was against Brighton.
  • 5 wins and a 0-0 in their last 6 home matches.
  • 5 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 6 wins and a 0-0 at home v teams 16th and lower.
  • 10 goals scored at home last 15 mins.

Blackburn 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • Not won at halftime away.
  • No away match with 4 goals exactly.

Blackburn other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 3 wins in 13 matches were 1-0.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Scored in 10 of 11 matches v top 8 teams.
  • 11 of 13 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I note Blackburn's goal scoring so do not be surprised if they score. As they tend to score 2nd half I would lay any tenuous 1-0 Sheff Wed lead.
  • We might see a 0-0 at halftime but I would expect 2nd half goals.
  • Sheff Wed are in superb form of late and should not be losing today.
  • So my key angle is to not expect a fulltime 0-0 if a halftime 0-0 and the possibility of both teams scoring and Sheff Wed not losing.

19:45 - Rotherham v Huddersfield - 1.74 Huddersfield

Rotherham 100% stats

  • Bottom of the league.
  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats v top 6 - Huddersfield are 3rd.
  • Defeats at home v top 4 were only 0-1.

Rotherham other stats

  • Conceded last 11 matches.
  • 94% of points were earned at home.

Huddersfield 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten away v 16th and lower.0-1, 1-1, 0-1 v bottom 4 away.

Huddersfield other stats

  • 9 wins, a draw and a loss in the last 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • All matches v 14th and lower were one-goal-in-it matches or draws.

Conclusions

  • Huddersfield have great recent form but really poor scoring v bottom sides.
  • Similarly Rotherham have lost, but only lost 0-1 v top 4 at home.
  • I could foresee a match where Huddersfield do not lose and any win will be a 0-1 or a 1-2.
  • We shall see.
  • Like Darmstadt at the weekend, we have a team in Rotherham who tend to do their points gathering at home. That said, they have shown a consistent inability to beat the top 5.
  • Speculators might want to back 0-0 pre match and hope the tight match is in prospect.

19:45 - Fulham v Notts Forest - 1.61 Fulham

Fulham 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.

Fulham other stats

  • Scored in their last 10 home matches.
  • Only 1 win at home v teams 6th - 21st - Forest are 17th. That's not the form of a 1.61 shot now is it?
  • Heavy goal scoring 31st-90th minutes at home.

Notts Forest 100% stats

  • 100% defeats v top 8 and play 9th today.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in all of those defeats.
  • Have conceded 2+ goals away to all top 10 and meet the 10th team they play from that group today!!

Notts Forest other stats

  • 5 defeats and a draw in their last 6 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • 11 goals conceded away 61st to 75th minute.

Conclusions

  • I do not expect a 0-0 today.
  • Fulham should score. And if Forest continue their pattern v top 10 teams away, Fulham should score 2 goals at least.
  • That I think is the market's basis for the 1.61 odds. They have dismissed Fulham's dire record at home v teams 6th-21st. Contrarians might like to lay Fulham on that solitary piece of evidence.
  • So, you decide. Go with the market and expectation for Fulham 2+ goals today or take a contrarian view based on Fulham's really poor home form.

19:45 - Brighton v Ipswich - 1.54 Brighton

Brighton 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Brighton other stats

  • Failed to score in 6 matches.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 12 at home, scoring in all 12 matches.
  • 2/3rd of home halftime scores are either 1-0 or 0-1.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 0-0 with Ipswich earlier this season.
  • 21 of 32 home goals scored 2nd half.

Ipswich 100% stats

  • Lost away to all top 5 teams, with Brighton in 2nd.

Ipswich other stats

  • Only 2 clean sheets in their last 18 matches.
  • 81% of halftime scores away either 1-0 loss or 0-0.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • High probability for a 1-0 Brighton lead at halftime based on the stats.
  • Strong 2nd half bias both teams goals wise if 0-0 at halftime.
  • Ipswich have to end a trend of losing to the top 5 away and that does not seem likely today with a Brighton team undefeated in 12 at home and with a current 6 match home winning run.
  • We must oppose Ipswich therefore if they score first.

19:45 - Norwich v Newcastle - 2.82 both teams

  • These kinds of odds in the English Championship. Usually 'run away run away'. But given it is Newcastle I'll see if there are any trading angles.

Norwich 100% stats

  • 7th in the league plays top side Newcastle.
  • All defeats v top 5 teams home and away conceding 2 goals at least.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Norwich other stats

  • 4 wins and a 2-2 draw last 5 matches.
  • No draw in 14 home matches.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • 4-3 the last time these 2 met was a trading extravaganza if you kept faith in Newcastle.
  • All wins bar one, home and away, have come v teams 12th and lower in the league.
  • 15 goals scored at home first 1/2 hour of matches.
  • 11 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Have led at halftime in 11/15 home matches.

Newcastle 100% stats

  • No draw home or away v top 15 teams.
  • Not conceded in both halves away.
  • No 0-0.

Newcastle other stats

  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No draw in 10 away.
  • In 5 of 6 away matches v top 14 teams, Newcastle have scored 2 goals.
  • Tend to concede 2nd half away.
  • Nearly identical scoring first and leading at halftime stats to Norwich.

Conclusions

  • As tricky as the odds suggest. Both teams tend to score first and lead at halftime so no purchase there. Can we lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market on that basis?
  • The biggest recurring pattern is to lay the late draw. Both sides seem to consistently avoid it.
  • I just hope this is like the previous encounter. Newcastle were 1-3 down and won 4-3 with 2 90th minute goals. I recall that Newcastle were THE in-play stats side that day!

19:45 - Wolves v Wigan - 2.04 Wolves

  • This will be my last English Championship match today. As you see I have focussed on odds-on shots to begin with, and then (Newcastle) with teams I know a little about. Ditto here with Wolves.

Wolves 100% stats

  • Scored and conceded in all matches v bottom 6 sides (Wigan are 2nd bottom).

Wolves other stats

  • Only 7 clean sheets.
  • 3 defeats in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 14 of 18 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Wigan 100% stats

  • All away defeats have been by a single goal.

Wigan other stats

  • Scored 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches.

Conclusions

  • Here's what I get from this match. If Wolves win it is likely to be a 1-0, 2-1 or any other scoreline with one-goal-in-it.
  • Both teams tend to score when Wolves meet teams below them in the league, ergo if Wolves are to win, it will be an over 2.5 goals match?
  • Strong 2nd half goalscoring from Wolves so note that.
  • It would not be a shock were Wigan to score today. They have scored 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • I would back 2-2 and 3-2 today in the hope that a) Wigan score 2 as they have recently and b) both teams score as per Wolves v the strugglers and c) if Wolves win it will be a one-goal-in-it match.

Champions League (CL)

19:45 - Benfica v Dortmund - 2.42 Dortmund

  • This is the first leg of the last 16 encounter between these 2 so is tough to evaluate as it is effectively 'halftime' after 90 minutes.
  • The objective today is to ensure no heavy irretrievable defeat.

Benfica CL stats

  • Conceded 3 and 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches.
  • Most recent German opponents were Bayern Munich in April 2016 - a 2-2 draw.
  • Wins at home have tended to come against the lesser lights, most recently, Astana, Galatasary, Zenit (1-0) and Dinamo Kiev (1-0).
  • Have scored in their last 8 home matches.

Dortmund CL Stats

  • Unbeaten since 2016 in this competition scoring 2+ goals in 5 of 6 matches.
  • Only draws there were 2-2 v Real Madrid.
  • 1-2 win away at Sporting Lisbon in October 2016 - is that good form with which to gauge more Portugeuse opponents today?

Conclusions

  • Tough to evaluate a first leg as it is not necessarily a must-win.
  • Collateral form? V German opponents, Benfica drew 2-2. V Portugeuse opponents, Dortmund won 1-2.
  • We might well see both teams score tonight and I would be keener to lay Benfica if Benfica scored first. Dortmund's loss at the weekend to Darmstadt was more about this match today being the distraction I feel.

19:45 - PSG v Barcelona - 2.22 Barcelona

  • If Terry-Thomas was watching this, he would comment 'I say, Ding-dong'.
  • let's look at head to heads from 2014. 3-2 PSG at home, 3-1 Barca at home, 1-3 Barca at PSG and 2-0 Barca at home.
  • There has been a gradual dominance from Barcelona in 2 legs in recent encounters.

PSG CL Stats

  • 2 consecutive 2-2 draws v Arsenal and Ludogorets. The latter draw does not augur well against today's classier opponents.
  • 2 goals scored in each of their last 5 matches, but let's put it into context - opponents included Basel and Ludogorets.
  • The only home defeat since 2012 was a 1-3 v Barcelona.
  • 3 score draws in the last 4 home matches v Man City, Arsenal and Ludogorets.
  • The last home match against Spanish opposition was a 0-0 v Real Madrid.

Barcelona CL Stats

  • No draw in 10 matches saw 8 wins and 2 defeats v Atl Madrid and Manchester City (I would describe that as a convenient defeat 3-1 having beaten City 4-0 already at home).
  • In 8 of those 10 matches, they scored 2 goals at least.
  • The last french opponent was PSG in 2015, a 2-0 away win.
  • Are more vulnerable away as seen by recent form of LWDWDWLWLW (where L = Loss, D=Draw and W=Win).
  • Struggled against Atl Madrid and Man City recently.
  • In 20 away matches, only Atl Madrid have kept Barcelona from scoring (twice).

Conclusions

  • I expect Barcelona to score tonight and feel they could continue their recent momentum swing by winning both legs today. 2 goals are within Barcelona's compass given that PSG have conceded 2 goals in their last 2 matches, including the likes of Ludogorets!
  • 3 score draws in 4 matches for PSG at home suggests they are layable if leading tonight. Barcelona may get their 2 goals this evening. Only Atl Madrid have stopped them scoring in an away CL match.