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7:45pm - Atl Madrid v Real Madrid  - 2.76 away

Standout Stats

  • Would you be surprised if I told you that Atl Madrid had not lost a match with Real Madrid in all competitions, in their last 8 matches?
  • There is little else to research here given the import of this Champions League match. This is the first of 2 legs it seems so usual rules apply. The home side want to take a goal or 2 to the 2nd leg. They will be trying to win to nil. The away side will be seeking that away goal , that precious away goal. Atl Madrid have scored at least 2 goals in the last 4 encounters.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The odds tell us that this is a match which the betting market cannot get a handle on. The head to heads tell you Atl Madrid may NOT lose today, and could score 2 goals. This further suggests we lay Real Madrid if they score first.
  • I don't expect a 0-0 today

7:45pm - Derby v Blackpool  - 1.25 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-3 and 0-1 to Derby in the 2014 head to heads.
  • This is the 5th v 24th in the English Championship. Blackpool are relegated. Derby are 5th and are 6 points shy of 4th and 8 points from leaders. A must win therefore to at least preserve play-off status.


  • This is a match of circumstance so just a cursory glance at the form.
  • No win in 4 at home is a worry as they cannot leak points any more.
  • Another worry? Performance v the bottom 3 at home. 1-2 loss and a 0-0
  • Only 1 win in 9 matches is, yes, another worry. Just at the wrong time of the season have Derby got the colley-wobbles.
  • 3 draws and a loss to Boro in their last 4 home matches.


  • Relegated but still influential. They scored first against Ipswich and eventually lost 3-2
  • Blackpool nearly made it 4 consecutive score draws.
  • Ipswich are in the same position as Derby so that match was a good template.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • If ever Derby County need to end a shocking slump it is today. But are you confident enough to keep the faith. You'd have had an excellent trade if you opposed Blackpool last time out. They took the lead. The match was 2-2 too! It ended 3-2 to Ipswich.
  • So this match can be traded on the basis that Derby are expected, with necessity, to win here or at least not lose.

7:45pm - Juventus v Monaco  - 1.51 home

Standout Stats

  • This is a Champions League (CL) match and the market is surprisingly dismissive of a Monaco side whose real strength is its defence. Ask Arsenal!
  • There are no head to heads.


  • The recent Juve loss to Parma was perhaps with this match in mind and the knowledge that the league title in Italy is all but theirs.
  • 9 wins in their last 10 home matches in all competitions. The sole loss was in the Coppa Italia where Juventus may not have been bothered ( if you read the research on that match, you'd agree!)
  • 3 clean sheets in their last 4 CL matches. Juventus are coming off a double over an improving Dortmund which saw them score 2 and 3 goals.
  • the only CL team to have beaten Juventus at home since 2004 in this competition is Bayern Munich.  A recent 0-0 with another solid defensive unit Atl Madrid might be the template for today's match against defensively stout Monaco.


  • back on the clean sheet trail in their last 2 matches.
  • A run of 14 consecutive clean sheets ended with a 1-0 loss to Guingamp , since when Monaco have conceded 1-0-1-0-2 (Coupe de france), 1-0-2 (2nd leg of Arsenal match where a 0-2 would be alright for Monaco to progress), 1-1-0-0. So, under normal circumstances, it is so difficult for teams to score 2 against Monaco. The Arsenal concession was an engineered 0-2 loss. The coupe de france? Well, Monaco may just have not been bothered .
  • 8 wins in their last 10 aways in all competitions.
  • They've been at it again in the CL. Conceding 0-0-0-1-0-0-1-2 recently. As I say , the 2 was manageable as Monaco went through over 2 legs.
  • 2 consecutive away wins v Bayer and Arsenal.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Juventus are in for a tough night tonight I think if the Monaco who rarely concede more than 1 goal turns up. They kept an attacking Arsenal quiet with a 3-1 win and have the stats to overcome tonight. Only Bayern Munich have beaten Juventus in the Champions league at home  since 2004 so it's a tough assignment for Monaco.
  • 1.53 is certainly not backable and I would consider backing 0-0 pre-match if the odds are reasonable enough.
  • You might want to lay Juventus if they score first, on the understanding that Monaco rarely concede 2 goals.

7:45pm - Leeds v Norwich  - 1.57 away

Standout Stats

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 15th v 2nd in the Championship. Leeds' season is over. Norwich are 2nd, on the same points as 3rd, and 1 point ahead of 4th, and 1 point behind 1st so 3 points is vital today.


  • 3 consecutive defeats is music to Norwich's ears.
  • Only 1 win in 5 at home.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • What is a worry is the solid looking form v top 6 at home, where Leeds have beaten 1st, 4th, 5th and 6thin tight matches.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime


  • 9 without defeat away from home
  • 4 match winning streak.
  • Scored 2 90th minute goals in the last 3, so this ain't over 'til it's over!
  • 4 consecutive wins at just the right time.
  • Have tended to draw the group of teams around Leeds position in the league.
  • Only 1 loss in 15 matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Questionable motivation but solid winning form v top 6 plays incredible motivation and only 1 loss in 15 matches.
  • Will Leeds take their eye off the ball today given they are not being relegated and are not in the play-offs. Their form v top 6 is a concern for those favouring the highly motivated Norwich.
  • I think I would have to go with the unique context of this match and favour Norwich today so lay Leeds if Leeds score first