Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook. See you on Telegram throughout today although the opening 2 Premier League matches are tough puzzles to solve.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

  • 2 matches with 2.62 the favourite suggests these are too close to call.

18:00 - Sheff Utd v Newcastle - 2.62 Sheff Utd

  • If ever Sheff Utd are to end their winless streak, it will be in a match where the favourite is at 2.62 odds!
  • 2 1-0 defeats and a 2-0 defeat  recently. Sheff Utd have conceded 1-1-1-2 goals recently so keeping things tighter.
  • 1-2-0 goals scored at home.
  • Sheff Utd have not kept a clean sheet yet.
  • 5 consecutive home defeats.
  • On 5 occasions at home, Sheff Utd conceded 1 goal maximum.
  • Newcastle have not won in 5 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Loss away for Newcastle.
  • Newcastle are yet to meet the bottom 5 away.
  • Angles? 2.62 the favourite for this match and the one below suggests tough to read matches. As I say, if ever Sheff Utd are to end their winless streak it will be in a match in which the market has the team priced at 2.4+
  • Gap in form for Newcastle who are yet to meet the bottom 5 away. Sheff Utd are keeping it tight at home, conceding 1 goal only on 5 occasions.

20:15 - Wolves v Everton - 2.62 Wolves

  • Another apparent toughie so says the market.

Wolves - 13th

  • Only 2 wins in 10 came v Arsenal and Chelsea. Move Everton to London and that'll be the London hatrick! Poor recent form apart from those standout wins.
  • 2 tough recent home matches, 2-1 win v Chelsea and 1-1 v Tottenham augurs well for today's fixture.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Not beaten the top 8 home or away.
  • 7/9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Everton - 7th

  • 4 consecutive wins ended with a loss v West Ham.
  • 1-1-0-0-1-0-1 goals conceded recently so always in with a chance.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Win away.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 5 away.
  • Not played 8th-13th away.

Conclusions

  • The market suggests that this is too tough to call. Here are the patterns I see. Everton tend to keep opponents to one goal max. Will that pattern emerge tonight?
  • Note Wolves have had 5 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime, suggesting either a) back 0-0 pre match and hope this pattern continues to halftime or b) lay any 2nd half 0-0.
  • Note Wolves have yet to beat the top 8 home or away and have conceded in their last 10 matches but, to throw a spanner in the works, beat Chelsea 2-1 and drew 1-1 with Tottenham in their last 2 home matches. Really solid form.

20:15 - Burnley v Man Utd - 1.5 Man Utd

Burnley - 16th

  • Only 2 defeats in 9 matches. Take away the heavy defeat to Man City, and Burnley have conceded 0-0-1-0-0-1-1-0 goals.
  • Win, Draw, Win, Win at home recently.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.
  • 0-1 losses v 4th and 6th.
  • 4/5 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Man Utd - 2nd

  • 3-4-3-3-3-3-2 goals scored away.
  • Unbeaten away.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 14/21 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 8 goals scored away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • An archetypal defence v attack here. What Man Utd have in their favour is 2+ goals away, and Burnley's inability to beat the top 8. Do note Burnley only lost 0-1 to 4th and 6th and have been hugely impressive defensively.
  • The stats say lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but I am concerned that this defensive Burnley might turn up.
  • Man Utd are very late goal scorers away so remember that if a draw or if United are losing getting to the 75th minute.

SPANISH LA LIGA

18:00 - Granada v Osasuna - 2.48 Granada

Granada - 7th

  • 3 losses in their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in those defeats.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Loss at home. The loss came v Barcelona.
  • v the bottom 3, 0-1 away win and 3-3 draw at home v 20th.
  • 5 goals conceded at home last 15 minutes of the first half.
  • 5 goals scored last home last 15 minutes of the 2nd half.

Osasuna - 19th

  • Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss, Loss, Loss, Loss, Draw, Draw, Draw, Draw recently. 3 score draws in 4 matches.
  • Impressive 0-0 v Real Madrid latest.
  • Only away win came 1st match of the season.
  • Conceded in their last 5 away.
  • 6 goals conceded away in the first 15 mins of the 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • What do we make of Osasuna's 0-0 v Real Madrid? Because away from home, they cannot win and recently they can only hope for a score draw best case scenario.
  • Granada are good at home and consistently so, enough for me to side with them on pre-match form. 2 goals in them as well.
  • Watch out for 2nd half goal action if 0-0 at halftime.

20:30 - Atletico Madrid v Sevilla - 2.04 Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid - 1st

  • Only 1 loss came v Real Madrid.
  • 11 wins in 12 matches.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • 88% of halftime scorelines are either 0-0 or 1-0.
  • Scored first in 7/8 at home.
  • Only conceded 2 goals at home, those came last half hour.

Sevilla - 6th

  • Have impressed recently. 0-1, 0-1, 0-1, 1-1 away recently. Strength in defence.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • 0-1 loss at home v 2nd, 1-1 away v 3rd.
  • 7/9 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 5/6 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Defence v defence!!  An air of solidity for both sides defensively. You may want to risk backing 0-0 pre match and hoping for yet another 0-0 at halftime for Sevilla away from home.
  • If Sevilla fail to score that 2nd goal v the top 3 again, lay them if they score first but cover the 0-1.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

18:30 - Dundee Utd v St Johnstone - 2.02 St Johnstone

Dundee United - 6th

  • 1-1 and 0-0 v St Johnstone this season.
  • Unbeaten at home v 7th and lower.
  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score last 2 matches.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win, Draw at home. The loss came v Rangers.
  • Scored in their last 5 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
  • 8/11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

St Johnstone - 10th

  • 2 away wins came v 7th and 11th.
  • No win in 9 and in 5 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • Conceded last 11 away.
  • 8 goals conceded away last 15 mins of away matches.
  • 5 goals scored, 5 goals conceded away last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • I like Dundee United's recent home form. Only Rangers have beaten them. They have scored last 5 at home. So I would not necessarily agree with the market. No win in 9 and in 5 away for St Johnstone.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:00 - Luton v QPR - 2.38 Luton

  • No defeat in 6 at home for Luton.
  • 14th v 20th.
  • Luton are unbeaten at home v 10th and lower.
  • 4/4 wins at home for Luton v 21st and lower.
  • QPR have 4 draws and 2 defeats last 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away 1-1 draws.
  • No win in 9 and in 6 away for QPR.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away for QPR and only once at fulltime.
  • QPR have yet to beat the top 13.
  • QPR's sole win away was a 0-1 v 22nd.
  • 11/17 goals conceded away came 2nd half for QPR.
  • Angles? No indepth research given 2.38 the favourite in the English Championship. What stands out? Luton are unbeaten at home v 10th and lower. 4/4 wins v 21st and lower. QPR have only 1 win away, a 0-1 and if these patterns continue then we favour Luton.
  • Do remember, if QPR see a 0-0 at halftime, they don't tend to see 0-0 at fulltime away.

19:45 - Bournemouth v Millwall - 1.72 Bournemouth

Bournemouth - 3rd

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 4 wins and a 2-3 loss last 5 home matches.
  • 6 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home.
  • 14 of 20 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Millwall - 17th

  • Only 1 win in 13 matches came last match away.
  • Not yet beaten a top 9 side home or away but 5 draws in 7 matches.
  • 7/9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I don't expect Millwall to win, but would not discount a draw.
  • Bournemouth score a lot 2nd half so remember that if a draw or they are losing at halftime. Bournemouth have been keeping clean sheets too so will Millwall really score a 2nd goal if scoring first?

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:45 - Vitesse Arnhem v FC Utrecht - 2.42 Vitesse

Vitesse - 4th

  • Only 3 losses came away from home.
  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 home matches.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored first in 7/7 at home and led at halftime in 6/7 at home.
  • 3 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Utrecht - 10th

  • 2-3, 2-2, 2-2 last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet; failed to score in only one match.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 matches overall.
  • Only away win came v 18th.
  • 7/8 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 8/11 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • The market suggests that this is wide open but note that Vitesse are unbeaten at home and have tended to score first.
  • Utrecht matches have been goal filled and both teams to score - will that continue today?
  • Vitesse tend to score first half, Utrecht 2nd half! Will Vitesse lead at halftime?

20:00 - Heracles v Emmen - 1.79 Heracles

Heracles - 13th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 2 wins and a loss last 3 matches.
  • 4 losses and a win last 5 matches at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 4-0 loss away v 17th, not played 18th 2-0 home win v 16th.

Emmen - bottom of the league

  • Yet to win.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Not played bottom 7 away yet.
  • All 4 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I think the reason why Heracles are odds on favourites is because....they play winless Emmen. Dare we trust Emmen to underperform today v a home side with only 4 wins?

BELGIAN JULIPER LEAGUE

19:45 - KV Oostende v Eupen - 1.97 KV Oostende

Oostende - 9th

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Only 2 home losses.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • 3/3 wins at home v 11th and lower.

Eupen  -14th

  • 3 losses and a win last 4 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away and only once at fulltime.
  • 2 away defeats came v the top 2.
  • Only 1 win v the top 10 away saw 5 draws.
  • 12/14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • 8/11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Oostende are in excellent form at the moment and that momentum may see them through today. They are winning at home too v 11th and lower and play an Eupen side tending to draw only away v the top 10.
  • Very strong 2nd half goals patterns in Eupen away matches.