Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Did you keep faith with Wolves scoring? You'd have been amply rewarded, particularly you delayers as Newcastle hit a low of 1.03 before Wolves equalised. Hamburg's research was very good. Back 0-0 pre match? And watch for a Hamburg 2nd half goal. 1-0 83rd minute winner. Today is tough to call. Remember with the Champions League - just because it's high profile doesn't necessarily mean it's tradeable.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Birmingham v Bolton - 1.53 Birmingham

Birmingham (8th)

  • A 3-3 draw and 2 wins in the last 3 matches.
  • Only 2 home losses.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (47% of matches).
  • Unbeaten at home v teams below them in the league.
  • Scored and conceded in 3/4 at home v bottom 4. 2 wins and a draw.
  • 16 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Bolton (23rd)

  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet since 2nd October 2018.
  • 6 consecutive away defeats.
  • No win in 13 away.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away (47% of matches).
  • Conceded 2+ goals in all bar 1 away v the top 12.
  • 18 of 26 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Birmingham may be conceding v the bottom sides but at worst score draw, and at best score 2+ goals in the win.
  • There is a relatively high % of 0-0's at halftime and if you see 0-0 at halftime, over 2.5 goals has a reasonable chance.
  • Bolton are very opposable if scoring first.

19:45 - Hull City v Rotherham - 1.83 Hull

  • 12th v 21st.
  • Only 3 losses for Hull since 27th October 2018, the last 2 were losses last 2 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home wins for Hull City. 2+ goals scored in their last 5 at home.
  • 100% wins at home v 16th and lower saw all clean sheets for Hull.
  • 2-3 Hull the last time these 2 met.
  • 13 goals scored by Hull at home last 1/2 hour of matches.
  • Rotherham have only 2 wins since the 18th September 2018.
  • 2 consecutive draws ends a run of 3 consecutive defeats.
  • No win in 15 away for Rotherham.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away for Rotherham is 47% of matches.
  • Rotherham have scored 2 goals only once away. It suggests we lay Rotherham if they score first. Score draws v mid table teams is best case for me for Rotherham.
  • Hull are in solid enough form and could win to nil of upholding form v 16th and lower.
  • Remember this is a derby (is it?) of sorts.

19:45 - Bristol City v QPR - 1.9 Bristol City

  • 6th v 15th and more generous odds for a top side in this competitive league.
  • 6 consecutive wins for Bristol City after 4 score draws and 2 wins. Solid recent form.
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 matches sees them tough to score against.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime in 6 for Bristol City but none at fulltime.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home for Bristol City.
  • Bristol City's recent form is great but v 14th and lower, they won only 2 matches (v the bottom 4). Losses at home v 14th, 16th and 17th and they play 15th today.
  • 13 of 18 Bristol City goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 4 consecutive defeats for QPR.
  • QPR have lost away v 2nd, 3rd, 4th. Only 1 QPR win away v 21st and lower.
  • Is it just coincidence that Bristol City have lost v all teams around their current opponent in the league? Or does their recent excellent consistent form supercede this and leave us expecting them not to lose today? Watch out for 0-0 at halftime and take it on 2nd half for sure. QPR have lost away to top 4 this season and with only 1 win v 21st and lower should not oblige today. But this is the competitive Championship....

19:45 - Millwall v Sheffield Wednesday - 2.26 Millwall

  • 20th v 16th.
  • No win in 4 with Millwall ended a run of 3 consecutive wins.
  • Only 5 clean sheets for Millwall. They did have a 0-0 last home match.
  • Millwall actually failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • A gap in form for Millwall v 14th-18th at home. They are unbeaten at home v 19th and lower.
  • 10 goals conceded by Millwall at home came 2nd half.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches for Sheff Wed came away recently 1-1-1-0-1 goals conceded away for Sheff Wed recently but they lost only 1 of those matches.
  • 3 consecutive Wed clean sheets.
  • All Sheff Wed losses came away v 8th-19th. They beat Millwall 2-1 earlier this season.
  • 69% of goals scored and conceded away by Sheff Wed came 2nd half.
  • Another messy Championship match. Potential angles? Sheff Wed not finding a 2nd goal in recent away matches. But keeping clean sheets. Strong 2nd half scoring conceding for Sheff Wed so lay any 0-0 2nd half?

20:00 - West Brom v Nottm Forest - 1.79 West Brom

  • 4th v 9th.
  • Only 2 losses in 14 matches for West Brom. One came last home match.
  • Only 1 win in 6 at home for West Brom.
  • West Brom have scored in their last 14 and last 15 at home.
  • West Brom have only 1 loss at home v 10th and lower. 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • 24 of 35 goals scored at home by West Brom came 2nd half.
  • Forest have only 3 wins in 11, they came within last 4 home matches.
  • 3 consecutive away losses without scoring for Forest.
  • Only 1 away loss for Forest v 13th and higher. Only 3 away wins.
  • On recent form, West Brom should be favoured. They should also score at some stage. Forest's recent wins came at home. Only 3 away wins for Forest suggests they are layable if leading.

UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (CL)

20:00 - Man Utd v PSG - 2.42 Man Utd

  • We are yet to encounter an Ole United side in the Champions League. Under Mourinho United tended to want to shut up shop at home in the CL.
  • Under Ole......?
  • For PSG, there is no Neymar, or Cavani. Mbappe plays, Choupo-Moting and Diabi are the likely forward line.
  • I really do not have an angle in bar in-play stats and a note that this is the first of 2 legs. 2-2 and 3-2 losses away for PSG recently v Premier League opponents. Something to cling onto?

20:00 - Roma v Porto - 2.14 Roma

  • Roma lost their last 2 CL matches against Real Madrid and Plzen. 7 consecutive home wins ended with their loss to Real Madrid.
  • 5 consecutive CL wins for Porto but a question regarding the quality of opponents compared with Roma. Back in 2017, Porto lost away to Juventus 1-0.
  • The first of 2 legs. I am sorry to be so vague here. What possible angles can I get from this match?

EUROPA LEAGUE

17:55 - Fenerbahce v Zenit - 2.66 Fenerbahce

  • A match making absolutely no appeal if the market is anything to go by.
  • This is the first of 2 legs.
  • I am sorry, but like the Champions League, in-play stats are best employed.
  • Zenit have not had an away win in the Europa league since 2018. Significant? They did not score more than 1 goal either.