It is Champions League night tonight and tomorrow and it is difficult to make a stats call in a first leg match where the away team would like a goal and the home side would like a clean sheet win. Over the week we have the Champions League and Europa League and these matches are too tough to call. I will try and gather the stats but you must create your own trading angles (if you want to trade - there is no obligation to trade remember that. Regardless of the teams).
19:45 - Dortmund v Monaco - 1.68 Dortmund
- At home, in all competitions, Dortmund have 5 consecutive wins. They are unbeaten in 20 matches at home.
- Unless I am mistaken, the last time Dortmund had a first leg at home was in April 2013 where they beat Real Madrid 4-1 and lost 2-0 in the away leg.
- Is this a tactic for tonight. Blow your opponents out of the water. Expect a loss 2nd leg?
- Back in 2013, Marseille was the last oppponent from France to play Dortmund and they lost 2-3.
- Bayern, Arsenal, Zenit and Juventus are the 4 teams to have beaten Dortmund at home recently.
- Both teams have scored in 10 of Monaco's last 12 away matches. Is this a trait we will see tonight? Note 2 consecutive away clean sheets in the league.
- Both teams have scored in 11 of 14 Champions League matches.
- In matches where Monaco meets a team over 2 matches, away from home, they have scored in all matches since July 2015. They did fail to score v Juventus.
- Monaco have conceded in the last 8 aways.
- This is not typical research as you can see because these are unique matches and this is the first leg.
- Monaco show a pattern for conceding so expect Dortmund to score. Monaco (recently) have managed at least one goal away from home. Heck they scored 3 v Man City so I could see a both teams to score scenario tonight.
19:45 - Juventus v Barcelona - 2.62 Juventus
- The market cannot split these 2 sides. Ignore Barca's match v Malaga. They tend to sacrifice the league result prior to a Champions League match.
- Juventus have not lost a home match since 12th September 2015.
- In June 2015, Barcelona won 1-3 at Juventus. That was not a 2-legged affair.
- Since August 2004, only Bayern Munich (twice) and Barcelona, have beaten Juventus at home.
- Note recently Juventus kept Bayern to a 2-2. Are they improving at home against the best of the best?
- Barcelona are vulnerable away from home, losing 3 of their last 5 including a tonking by PSG.
- 0-2, 0-2 in the last 2 away Champions League matches in which Barcelona were away for the first leg prior to that PSG tonking.
- No draw in 12 matches in the Champions League.
- LWLWL (L=Loss , W=Win) in recent away Champions League matches.
- As tough as the odds suggest. On the one hand we have a Juventus unbeaten at home since September 2015. In the Champions League Juve lost almost exclusively to Bayern and Barcelona. Interestingly, the last time Juve met Bayern at home, they kept them to a 2-2 draw so have improved.
- Barcelona, the last 2 occasions they played a first leg away, won 0-2, 0-2 before the 4-0 loss to PSG.
- I would lay any late draw here and hope Barca keep avoiding the draw.
- Other than that it is too tough to call.
The Swedish Allsvenskan has only just started and at 17:30 today, Malmo meets Sundsvall and Malmo are 1.28 shots. There is not enough form to work with yet.
1-2 Sundsvall and 0-1 Malmo in the last 2 head to heads. Tight. These matches are best traded via in-play stats when we do not have any form.