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UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

19:45 - Man City v Liverpool - 1.53 Man City

  • The value would be in backing Man City in the 'To Qualify' market at 5.6 and hope we get a trade during the match. This could be a 2-legged version of the 4-3 between these 2 earlier in the season.
  • Little else to work with.

19:45 - Roma v Barcelona - 1.66 Roma

  • 2 own goals from Roma powered Barcelona into a 4-1 lead. The scoreline is more impressive with those own goals.
  • An away goal from Roma. A very poor display v Fiorentina at the weekend perhaps had this match in mind?
  • Roma must score first today. I think Roma's odds are too short. Despite a commanding lead, Barcelona are by far the better side.Roma layable if scoring first?
  • A slight risk as Barca can afford a 2-0 defeat.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

I will begin researching the obvious favourites' matches and then, time allowing, will move on to the other matches.

19:45 - Aston Villa v Cardiff - 2.34 Aston Villa

  • 3-0 Cardiff in the last head to head.

Aston Villa (4th)

  • A top clash may not see form lines realized.
  • Only 1 win in 5 matches.
  • Scored last 9 at home.
  • Beat 1st and 3rd at home - both teams scored.
  • Unbeaten at home v top 14.

Cardiff (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss in 14 was 0-1 v Wolves.
  • No defeat in 6 away.
  • Scored in their last 5 away.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime away (47%).
  • 1-2 and 1-1 at home v top 3.
  • 9 goals scored away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Tough to call this top 4 clash. Plenty to play for. Both teams to score perhaps?
  • It may be 0-0 at halftime but I would take on that 0-0 2nd half.
  • As I say, tough to call.

19:45 - Bristol City v Birmingham - 2.1 Bristol City

  • 0-1 Birmingham and 2-1 Birmingham last 2 head to heads.

Bristol City (8th)

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 14th and lower scoring 2 goals at least in all bar 1.
  • 13 of 16 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Birmingham (20th)

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4. Charge to survive!
  • Not beaten top 14 away though.
  • Scored 2 goals only once away v top 14 and still lost.

Conclusions

  • On form, Bristol City have 2 goals in them v 14th and lower. Lay Birmingham if Birmingham score first.
  • Tt may be 0-0 at halftime but I'd expect goals 2nd half.

19:45 - Burton v Hull - 2.04 Hull

  • 4-1 Hull last head to head.

Burton (24th)

  • Only 1 win in 15 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • 0-0-0-0-1 scored last 5 at home.
  • No win in 16 at home.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime at home (45%).
  • Only 2 home wins.
  • 20 goals conceded at home last 30 mins of matches.

Hull City (18th)

  • Only 2 losses in 9 matches.
  • 2 draws and a win last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 1-0, 0-1, 1-0 away v bottom 4.
  • 12 of 18 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Burton tend not to score 2 goals so a win would be a 1-0. Lay Burton if Burton score first.
  • If Burton lead 60th minute, lay them.
  • Hull tend to score first half but I would not lay 0-0 halftime score market given the 1-0, 0-1, 1-0 away v bottom 4.

19:45 - Fulham v Reading - 1.35 Fulham

  • 1-0 Reading and 1-1 the last 2 head to heads.

Fulham (3rd)

  • No defeat in 19 matches and in 12 at home.
  • Scored in all of those matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 9 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home (30%).
  • Unbeaten at home v 17th and lower.
  • 22 of 26 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Reading (19th)

  • Only 2 wins since 3rd February came at home.
  • 4 losses in 5 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away (40%).
  • Did beat 5th away but lost to other top 9.3-0 v 1st and 4th away.
  • 18 of 23 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Fulham are highly likely to score first and negate any trade. There is a potential for 3 goals from Fulham today but they would take a 1-0 loss.
  • Reading have poor form v top 9, tending to lose.
  • High % 0-0's at halftime but goals 2nd half for sure, as per the last Fulham match.

19:45 - Nottm Forest v  Brentford - 2.26 Brentford


19:45 - Preston v Leeds - 1.77 Preston

  • 3-0 Leeds and 0-0 last head to head.

Preston (11th)

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0 defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 9 at home.
  • 9 0-0' at halftime at home (45%).
  • Unbeaten at home v 15th and lower. 0-1, 1-0, 1-0 v 14th, 15th and 16th at home.

Leeds (13th)

  • Only 2 wins in 17 came at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals away in their last 5 matches.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • Only 1 away win v top 10.

Conclusions

  • Preston not to lose looks the play here. Leeds are conceding 2 goals readily away so lay Leeds if Leeds score first.
  • High % 0-0's at halftime but I would expect at least a goal 2nd half.

 19:45 - QPR v Sheff Wed - 2.08 QPR

  • 1-2 Sheff Wed and 1-1 last 2 head to heads.

QPR (15th)

  • Only 2 losses in 7 came away from home.
  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home (35%).
  • Only 1 loss at home v teams below them was a 2-5 v 17th.
  • 23 of 30 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Sheff Wed (16th)

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of the last 9 matches.
  • 6 consecutive 0-0's at halftime, none at fulltime.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime away (45%).
  • 18 of 25 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Tough to call. If 0-0 at halftime I would back over 2.5 goals 2nd half based on Sheff Wed recent pattern.
  • QPR have a good record v teams below them in the league but Sheff Wed are winning recently. Stick to the above angle then.

20:00 - Bolton v Millwall - 2.06 Millwall

  • 1-1 last head to head.

Bolton (21st)

  • Only 3 wins in 12 matches were 1-0 home wins.
  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Mixed form v top 8, losses v 5th and 6th at home, wins v 2nd, 4th and 8th.

Millwall (7th)

  • Unbeaten in 15 matches and 7 away.
  • Scored in their last 8 away.
  • Scored 2+ goals in their last 4 matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away (40%).
  • Unbeaten away v 18th and lower. Lucky for them as only 1 win away v 17th and higher.

Conclusions

  • Millwall tend to score 2 goals away v 18th and lower and with Bolton tending to only win 1-0 I don't think Bolton can keep Millwall out if Bolton score first.
  • Lay Bolton therefore if they lead. It is a risk given the 1-0 wins but the evidence is above.
  • High % 0-0's at halftime away Millwall but I'd expect goals 2nd half.
  • On very recent form, we must be with Millwall.