Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook and hopefully be on hand later on, as the matches this evening look interesting.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

18:00 - Bournemouth v Tottenham - 1.73 Tottenham

  • Bournemouth will still be bottom 3 with a win. Tottenham will be edging into competitiveness as far as at least a top 5 spot is concerned.
  • It's bye bye Bournemouth with 7 losses and a draw v Chelsea last 8 matches.
  • Their run in is very unlucky for them, Tottenham (top 5 aspirations), Leicester (same!), Man City (would like to ensure top 4 status), and an easing v Saints, and lastly Everton.
  • Draw, Win, Loss, Win, Spurs post lockdown, saw a shock loss v Sheffield United.
  • Spurs have scored last 10 and Bournemouth have conceded last 16.
  • Spurs are unbeaten v 6th and lower. Bournemouth note. The Spuds tend to score 2/3 goals v the bottom 3.
  • 1-1 draws for Bournemouth v teams either side of Spurs in the league seems to be the best they can hope for, as well as getting the prayer mat out and hoping results go their way!
  • Angles? It's that part of the season. Seasonal research redundant really. Bournemouth must win. Tottenham must win. Tottenham could have 2/3 goals in the locker. 1-1 looks best case for Bournemouth.

18:00 - Everton v Southampton - 2.2 Everton

  • We enter dead rubber territory with Southampton.
  • 4 consecutive wins away from a top 5 place for Everton. This is not a match to research but to react to in-play. Saint's are likely to play Matt Le Tissier's Gran up front for this meaningless match.

20:15 - Aston Villa v Man Utd - 1.35 Man Utd

  • The swear jar overfloweth for Aston Villa with their run-in fixtures.
  • A win for Villa will keep them bottom 3. They need to win all remaining matches. Man Utd have a game in hand over 3rd and 4th, making this a must win in order to up from Europa League to Champions League.
  • We saw a glimmer of post-lockdown hope for Villa with a solid 0-0 v Sheffield United but against the big guns they have lost in tight matches, 1-2, 0-1, 2-0. Fancy meeting a group of top 4 battling teams at this part of the season!
  • 6 clean sheets in 9 for Man Utd. 3-3-5 goals scored by Man Utd last 3.
  • Angles? Again context rather than seasonal form should see Aston Villa swept aside. They have lost to all top 4 battlers post lockdown and there is nothing to suggest this will end this evening.

SPANISH LA LIGA

18:30 - Eibar v Leganes - 2.44 Eibar

  • 2 bottom 4 sides. It is more important for Leganes to be taking points off 4th bottom here today. They must beat their relegation rivals. Eibar are a comfortable 6 points clear of the bottom 3, make that 9 points with a win today.
  • 2.44 the favourite and a relegation six pointer makes a seasonal look at form irrelevant.

18:30 - Mallorca v Levante - 2.06 Mallorca

  • Must win for 3rd bottom Mallorca against mid-table, and safe, Levante.
  • Only 1 loss for Levante since 8th March came v Atl Madrid. 5 draws there though.
  • Draw, Win at home for Mallorca but 5 losses in 7 matches.
  • Mallorca have conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • 2-1 loss v Levante last head to head. Levante have beaten the bottom 2 away and play 3rd bottom today.

21:00 - Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla - 2.6 Sevilla

  • 9th v 4th here. Top 6 pretentions still for Ath Bilbao but they'll have to start wracking up the 3 points. Not researching given the odds 2.6 the favourite.

ITALIAN SERIA A

18:30 - Spal v Udinese - 2.14 Udinese

Spal - 20th

  • Only 5 wins.
  • 3 losses and a 2-2 last 4 matches.
  • 6 losses and a draw last 7 at home.
  • No win in 10 at home.
  • Conceded last 10 matches at home.
  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • Only 1 win at home.
  • 16 of 23 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Udinese - 15th

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches came v Roma recently.
  • 2 goals scored last 3 matches.
  • 2 wins and a draw away v the bottom 4.
  • All 7 goals scored away came last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Udinese have the form to beat or at least draw v Spal. They have 2 wins and a draw away v the bottom 4. Udinese have been scoring 2 goals last 3 matches too and if that habit continues, that will be too much v Spal.

20:45 - Verona v Inter - 1.7 Inter

Verona - 9th

  • 2 wins post lockdown came at home.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 10.
  • 2-1 loss to Inter last head to head.

Inter - 4th

  • Win, Draw, Win, Win, Loss post lockdown. Lost to Bologna.
  • No 0-0 at halftime post lockdown.
  • Only away losses v top 2.
  • 12 of 15 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Verona's record v the top 10 suggests they are more likely to lose/draw today. That will be my angle despite a slip up by Inter v Bologna. I suppose so many matches at the one time will require squad rotation and possible vulnerability. Verona do concede 2 goals regularly. Note that.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

17:00 - Rio Ave v Portimonense - 1.96 Rio Ave

  • A top 4 berth and Europa League football is possible for Rio Ave, currently 6th, but they must start winning.
  • Portimonense are 2nd bottom. With the bottom 2 guaranteed to be relegated, this is must win territory for them.
  • 3 wins and 3 losses for Rio Ave post lockdown. No draws. At home, 2 losses and a win. Losses v 13th and 2nd.
  • Rio Ave have scored in all post lockdown home matches.
  • Solid post lockdown for Portimonense. Yet another side with relegation threatened suddenly pulling out the solid performances.
  • Win, Draw, Draw, Win, Win, Loss .1-1 and 0-1 win v Famalicao away from home is their template. They have scored 2-3 goals at home but cannot replicate that away post-lockdown.
  • Only 2 wins away season long for Portimonense sees that one v Famalicao count as one. 1-1 draw last head to head.
  • Angles. An interesting match with Portimonense suddenly punching above their weight. I will have to look at the in-play stats here given it is a must win for both sides. You might see a strong defensive set up for Portimonense today.

19:15 - Tondela v Porto - 1.35 Porto

  • Porto are 6 points clear at the top of the league with 4 matches remaining. A win tonight will see one hand on the league title, particularly with Benfica having a tough-on-paper encounter with Famalicao away.
  • Must win for Tondela who are 4th bottom currently.
  • Tondela have had only 2 wins since 16th December, where coincidentally they lost 3-0 to Porto.
  • They are defensively strong post lockdown as seen by a 0-0 with Benfica and 2-0 loss v Sporting where one of the goals was a penalty (2 top 3 teams there).
  • Post lockdown, Tondela have scored 2 goals only once and therein lay their Achilles Heel.
  • Porto have only lost 3 matches all season. They have kept 5 clean sheets in a row post lockdown.
  • 4-3-0 goals scored by Porto away v the bottom 3 this season.
  • Angles? Tondela look to flatten out at a single goal so if scoring first, look unable to follow up. Porto should keep them out realistically and ensure the win today.

21:30 - Famalicao v Benfica - 1.56 Benfica

  • A top 4 spot for grabs for Famalicao and a Benfica who must breach the current 6 point gap to top placed Porto.
  • 4 matches remain this season so this is a must win for Benfica, particularly if Porto win this evening.
  • Since lockdown, Famalicao have been excellent. 1-1-0-1-0-1 goals conceded and beating Porto 2-1, and drawing 0-0 with Braga suggests that Benfica will have more of a battle than the 1.56 odds suggests.
  • 0-0 and 0-1 at home latest for Famalicao is a concern.
  • Famalicao lost 4-0 to Benfica last head to head but have, at home, beaten 1st 2-1 and 3rd 3-1.
  • 68% of goals scored and 61% of goals conceded by Famalicao came 2nd half at home.
  • Benfica have tried their best to throw away the title. Only 3 wins in 11 matches.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Loss away. They did win their last match and the in-play stats betrayed that fact so this Benfica side, in this current Arthur Daley mood, are best served with in-play stats. If they are showing well (as Young Boys did last night for instance), then we have the green light to trust them.
  • Angles? The value is in opposing Benfica, particularly as Famalicao are so tight defensively, have beaten Porto and beaten 1st and 3rd at home. But the market retains a confidence in Benfica that is confusing. So in-play stats please to see which Benfica turns up. Must win for them remember!!