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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, December 7, 2017

Ahh, the joys of the Europa League. What a poor set of matches. There are numerous dead rubbers (matches where neither side gains or loses) and these are to be avoided. The matches of import are the ones I have researched more fully. Nothing stand out for me at all today. I will take another read of the research prior to 18:00 but it does look like my time will be better spent researching Friday, Saturday and Sunday matches! If you have in-play stats, they will play a big part in any trading angles today.

18:00 - Apollon Limassol v Everton - 2.4 Apollon

  • Apollon and Everton are out.
  • Short and sweet. Leave this dead rubber alone.

18:00 - Atalanta v Lyon - 2.34 Atalanta

  • Atalanta and Lyon are through. They drew 1-1 in France so a 0-0 draw would give Atalanta first place, as would a 1-1 draw as Atalanta have a better overall goal difference. Any other score draw would give Lyon first place on head-to-head away goals.
  • This is another dead rubber match. Not worth researching or trading.

18:00 - Austria Vienna v AEK Athens - 2.42 AEK Athens

  • Austria will be through if they win (they would be top in a two-way head-to-head with AEK and a three-way head-to-head also including Rijeka if they win).
  • AEK will qualify with a draw. All to play for in this match.

Austria Vienna

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 3 wins in 13 matches.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 1 win in 7 matches. Scored and conceded in 5 matches.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM : only 1 win in 6 matches was v Rijeka. Both teams have scored in 7 of their last 8 matches. 2-2 the last time these 2 teams met.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 5 losses and 2 0-0 draws.

AEK Athens

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : unbeaten in 9 matches.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : unbeaten in 7 away matches. 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM : 2 wins and 4 consecutive draws. 2 of those were 0-0. 4 0-0's in 9 matches.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM AWAY : 3 0-0's in 4 aways. Unbeaten in 5.

Conclusions

  • On form AEK Athens will be tough to beat. They are adept at draws, having 3 0-0's away in 4 matches and 4 consecutive draws now in the Europa League.
  • They only need a draw and I think AEK will get what they need. Austria Vienna need a win but have 5 losses and a 0-0 at home in the Europa League.
  • Austria Vienna were beating AEK Athens until a late 90th minute draw for AEK.

18:00 - Basaksehir v Braga - 1.84 Basaksehir

  • Istanbul Basaksehir will be through if they win and Ludogorets lose.
  • Braga are through, and will clinch first place with a win or if Ludogorets (who have a superior head-to-head) fail to win.

Basaksehir

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : unbeaten in 9 matches. Scored and conceded in 11 of their last 13 matches.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 1 defeat since August 2016.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM : only 1 win came in their last match. Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 0-0 and 1-1 last 2 matches. Braga won 2-1 in the earlier encounter.

Braga

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : scored 3 goals in each of their last 3 wins.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 2 losses in 12 matches. no win in 3 matches saw 2 draws and a loss.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM : only 1 loss in 9 matches. Conceded in their last 21 Europa League matches.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM AWAY : scored and conceded in their last 6 matches. 4 score draws.

Conclusions

  • Braga may not be fully wound up. They have the safety harness of qualification already and will not be too worried if they do not get the win which assures first place.
  • Basaksehir will guarantee they are through with a win.
  • On an assumption that Braga actually turn up wanting a result, I note a very strong both teams to score pattern for both teams which may play out tonight.
  • Basaksehir look sturdy at home and that may see them through. I would lay BRaga if Braga scored first given they have conceded in each of their last 21 Europa League matches.

18:00 - Dynamo Kiev v Partizan Belgrade - 1.68 Dynamo Kiev

  • Partizan are through, and will clinch first place with a win.
  • Dynamo are through, and will clinch first place with a draw.
  • There is not enough of an incentive, I feel, for these 2. A match I will leave alone.

18:00 - FC Copenhagen v Sheriff Tiraspol - 1.82 FC Copenhagen

  • Sheriff will be through if they draw or if Lokomotiv lose. If Sheriff lose and Lokomotiv win, Sheriff finish below København on head-to-head. If Sheriff lose by two goals or more and the other game is drawn, Sheriff are out on three-way head-to-head. If Sheriff lose by one goal and the other game is drawn, they are through on three-way head-to-head goals scored.
  • København will be through if they win unless they win 1-0, 2-1 or 3-2 and the other game is drawn, due to three-way head-to-head goals scored (or two-way head-to-head with Lokomotiv if it is 3-2).
  • Permutations which suggest that both teams will be going for it today.

FC Copenhagen

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 2 losses in their last 3 at home, part of only 3 losses since February 2017.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM : only 2 defeats in 9 came away to Ajax and Lokomotiv Moscow. 0-0 with Sheriff last time they played was one of 2 0-0's this campaign.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 2 0-0's and 2 wins.

Sheriff Tiraspol

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 1 defeat since 5th August came last match.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : unbeaten in 13 matches. 6 wins and a draw last 7 matches.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM : a run of 6 draws, including 4 0-0's, ended with 2 wins.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM AWAY : only 1 away win came last match 1-1 and 0-0 prior to those.

Conclusions

  • 0-0 crops up with these 2. 0-0 suits Sheriff. Copenhagen need a win. It was 0-0 the last time these 2 met and Copenhagen have had 2 0-0's at home.
  • Not a match in which I can get a ready angle.

18:00 - Hoffenheim v Ludogorets - 2.68 Hoffenheim

  • Hoffenheim are out.
  • Ludogorets will be through with a draw or if Istanbul Ba?ak?ehir (who have a superior head-to-head) fail to win. Ludogorets finish top if they win and Braga do not.
  • Just a basic look at research. Hoff have scored and conceded in their 5 matches. Only the one win. 2-1 loss to Ludogorets.
  • 2 wins, 2 draws and a loss for Ludogorets.
  • I expect the Hoff to continue conceding. They have little to play for and will likely field a weakened side. Ludogorets are highly likely to get the draw they need.

18:00 - Rijeka v AC Milan - 2.22 AC Milan

  • Rijeka are out.
  • Milan are through as group winners.
  • This is a dead rubber so leave well alone.

18:00 - Slavia Prague v FC Astana - 1.8 Slavia Prague

  • Astana will qualify with a win.
  • Slavia will qualify with a draw.
  • Both teams have something to play for so I will research.

Slavia Prague

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 4 wins and a draw.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 2 defeats since 30th April. 11 wins in 14 matches.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM : only wins came v Maccabi Tel Aviv. 1-1 draw previously v Astana.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 0-0-1-0 scored in their last 4 at home.

Astana

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : no draw in 9 matches.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : scored 1-1-1-1 in their last 4 aways.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM : as with Slavia, Astana have only beaten Maccabi Tel Aviv.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM AWAY : only 1 win in 7 was v Maccabi Tel Aviv.

Conclusions

  • These 2 look well-matched on peripheral form. These are are not regular goalscorers.
  • Back 0-0 pre match if you would like in the hope that these 2 continue to misfire.
  • Lay any late 0-0 though as Astana need the win.

18:00 - Villarreal v Maccabi Tel Aviv - 1.37 Villareal

  • Villarreal are through as group winners.
  • Maccabi are out.
  • A dead rubber.

18:00 - Young Boys v Skenderbeu - 1.58 Young Boys

  • Skënderbeu and Young Boys are out.
  • A dead rubber.

18:00 - Zlin v Lokomotiv - 1.7 Lokomotiv

  • Zlín are out.
  • Lokomotiv will be through with a win, if they draw and the other game finishes anything other than a one-goal victory for København in which they score at least four, or if København do not win.

Zlin

  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM : 3 defeats to nil. 3-0 loss to Lokomotiv last time they met. 2 draws v other teams.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 0-0 and 1-1.

Lokomotiv

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 4 consecutive wins.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : a draw and 3 consecutive wins in the last 4.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM : scored and conceded last 3. 2 wins came at home.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM AWAY : 0-0-1 scored in their last 3..

Conclusions

  • Lokomotiv did beat Zlin 3-0 at home. Lokomotiv are the only motivated side here but have done their Europa League winning at home. 0-0-1 scored in their last 3 away is poor stuff.
  • Normally we side with the team who must win against the team who have nothing to play for.

20:05 - Arsenal v BATE Borisov - 1.47 Arsenal

  • Arsenal are through are group winners.
  • BATE will be through if they win and the other game is drawn.
  • Arsenal beat BATE 2-4 away at BATE.
  • Arsenal have nothing to play for.
  • Heavy losses for BATE v Koln and Arsenal. BATE did beat Koln 1-0 at home.
  • 2-1-2 scored by BATE in their last 3 aways.
  • We need to see Arsenal team news. I would expect them to field a weakened side tonight as the fixture list mounts.

20:05 - Crvena Zvezda v FC Koln - 2.26 Crvena

  • Crvena zvezda will be through if they win, or on head-to-head with a draw if BATE fail to win.
  • Köln will be through if they win.
  • All to play for here.

Crvena Zvezda

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : unbeaten in 11 matches.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 16 wins, 2 draws and a single 0-1 loss v Arsenal.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM : 1-1, 0-1 win, 0-1 loss, 0-0, 0-0 in their recent matches. Clear defensive pattern. 0-1 win v Koln. 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 1-1 and 0-1 last 2 home matches.

FC Koln

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 3 wins in 18 matches, 2 in the Europa League and one in the cup.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 1 win in 10 matches.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM : 3 defeats and now 2 consecutive wins.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM AWAY : those 2 consecutive wins came at home. 2 of 3 defeats were 0-1.

Conclusions

  • Both teams motivated. 2 consecutive wins for Koln came at home. Crvena look adept in defence in the Europa League and solid at home. Koln are in really poor form overall but have those 2 home wins.
  • Really too tough to call. I would not be surprised with a 1-0 or 0-1 here.

20:05 - FCSB v Lugano - 1.53 FCSB

  • Lugano and Hapoel are out.
  • FCSB are through and will clinch first place with a win, or if Plze? fail to win due to their superior head-to-head.
  • Not enough of an incentive for me for FCSB to warrant an interest.

20:05 - Guimaraes v Konyaspor - 2.28 Guimaraes

  • Konyaspor will be through if they win and Marseille lose.
  • Guimaraes.will be through on head-to-head if they win and Marseille lose.
  • Both sides reliant on Marseille, playing at home, to lose. A match you feel will see both of these sides going for it.

Guimaraes

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : no draw in 8 saw 5 wins.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7. 2 losses and a win last 3 matches.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM : only 1 win in 12 matches was at home 1-0 v Marseille so they can get the win if they want to.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 1-1 and 1-0 at home.

Konyaspor

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 2 wins in 12 matches, one in the cup v a lower league side.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 2 wins in 19 matches, one in the Super Cup and the other in the Cup v a lower league side.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM : only 1 win was v Guimaraes 2-0. 2 consecutive draws now.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM AWAY : failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.

Conclusions

  • This game might peter out if Marseille take a lead in their match, and that information seeps through to the teams. Their qualification is conditional on Marseille lose.
  • I would lay the late draw. These 2 are dire though. Only 1 win in 12 for Guimaraes and only 2 wins in 19 away for Konyaspor, one v lower league in the cup.

20:05 - Hapoel Beer Sheva v Plzen - 2.24 Plzen

  • Plze? are through due to their superior head-to-head with Lugano and will clinch first place if they win and FCSB do not.
  • Lugano and Hapoel are out.
  • Not enough incentive I feel for already-qualified Plzen to bust a gut, especially away from home.

20:05 - Hertha Berlin v Ostersunds FK - 2.38 Hertha

  • Hertha are out.
  • Östersund are through and will clinch first place if they win or if Athletic fail to win.
  • As above! I have been impressed with already-qualified Ostersunds this Europa League. Very much a surprise package. Not playing this match myself.

20:05 - Marseille v Red Bull Salzburg - 1.63 Marseille

  • Marseille will be through with a draw, or if the other game is drawn. They have a superior head-to-head with Konyaspor and an inferior one to Vitória SC.
  • Salzburg are through as group winners.
  • Marseille must not lose today. That is their priority.
  • Marseille lost 1-0 to Salzburg earlier in the campaign. That was one of only 2 defeats in 16 matches.
  • Only 1 loss for Marseille in 21 home matches should see them confident of that positive result.
  • Marseille's Europa League woes have all come away, with 2 1-0 defeats and a 1-1.
  • 1-0 v Konyaspor and 2-1 v Guimaraes at home in the Europa League.
  • Salzburg have only lost 3 matches since 30th November 2016. That is quite something in all competitions.
  • Salzburg scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 away, 6 wins and 4 1-1 draws.
  • 6 clean sheets in 8 matches for Salzburg in the Europa League.
  • A hope that Salzburg switch off tonight. They really are in solid form, losing only 3 matches since November 2016 and that is in all competitions.
  • Marseille are solid enough at home. A draw is all they need.

20:05 - Sociedad v Zenit St Petersburg - 2.08 Sociedad

  • Real Sociedad are through and will clinch first place with a win.
  • Zenit are through and will clinch first place with a draw.
  • This is a dead rubber for me. So what if they lose? They are qualified already.

20:05 - Vardar Skopje v Rosenborg - 1.99 Rosenborg

  • Rosenborg and Vardar are out.
  • As those meerkats say 'simples'. Leave this match alone!

20:05 - Vitesse v Nice - 2.56 Vitesse

  • Zulte Waregem and Vitesse are out.
  • Nice are through as runners-up.
  • Another to leave alone.

20:05 - Zorya v Athletic Bilbao - 1.87 Ath Bilbao

  • Zorya will be through if they win.
  • Athletic will be through with a draw and will clinch first place (at least on head-to-head) if they win and Östersund do not.

Zorya

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 1 win in 8 matches was a 1-0.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 3 wins in 15 matches. Poor stuff.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM : only 2 wins in 13 yet incredibly are a win away from qualification. Did beat Bilbao 0-1 away from home. Last 5 losses have all been 2-0!
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : lost to Ostersunds but beat Hertha Berlin 2-1.

Ath Bilbao

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 3 wins in 18 matches, 2 were 1-0.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : no win in 9 away.Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches. On a draw/lose sequence away for those 9 matches.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM : only 1 loss in 9 was a 0-1 v Zorya.
  • EUROPA LEAGUE FORM AWAY : 3 draws and a win last 4.

Conclusions

  • Recent wins v the impressive Ostersunds and less impressive Hertha Berlin sees Bilbao hitting Europa League form when they need it. 3 draws in 4 away and a draw is all they need today.
  • Zorya look in iffy form. I mean, 2 wins in 13 in the Europa League yet incredibly go through with a win today.
  • I would tentatively side with Bilbao here but, as with Napoli in the Champions League, teams who look good on paper can still get beaten. I would lay Zorya if Zorya score first.

20:05 - Zulte-Waregem v Lazio - 2.2 Lazio

  • Lazio are through as group winners.
  • Zulte Waregem and Vitesse are out.