The 1.06 shots Czech U21 were 0-0 at halftime. I hope you reacted in some fashion 2nd half. The match ended 0-2. I went 0-3, 1-3, any other away score. There are more shorties today in the Nations League. Just a mention on domestic cup matches. I found the Danish cup matches very tradable yesterday IF we employed in-play stats. The matches too were liquid enough to allow entry and exit of any trades. Something to pay attention to this International Break. The U21 Euro Championship certainly looks interesting. I am likely to be up late this evening finalising the What Really Wins Money newsletter so am happy to follow the in-play stats and report anything to you on Twitter @drtclub. 18:00 onwards.
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUE
15:00 - Kazakhstan v Georgia - 2.76 Kazak
- Of course, in order to showcase the UEFA Nations League, the Blockbuster 'Hollywood' match is played first.
- This is LEAGUE D.
- The last head to head was a friendly in 2016.
- This is a match best left alone. In-play stats will reveal all.
19:45 - Czech Republic v Ukraine - 2.5 Czech
- A second non-committal betting market.
- This is LEAGUE B.
- Last head to head was 2012.
- Only 1 draw in 14 matches in all competitions for the Czechs. A stat to work with?
- They have played their last 6 matches away from home, 4 wins and 2 defeats.
- Only 1 home loss in 8 in all competitions for the Czechs came v Germany.
- Ukraine are unbeaten in 5. Win, Draw, Win, Draw, Win.
- They are also unbeaten in 5 away in all competitions. The last 7 away defeats came when Ukraine were kept from scoring.
- Little to get our teeth into. If a late draw, I would lay it based on those Czech stats.
19:45 - Germany v France - 2.6 Germany
- This is the show-piece for the UEFA Nations League (this or Kazakhstan v Georgia).
- This is League A.
- France have scored 2 goals in each of the last 3 head to heads, with 2 2-0 wins and a 2-2 latest.
- This is a home match for Ze Germans.
- Only 1 loss at home for Germany came v Brazil in a friendly (since August 2016).
- 9 wins in 11 matches for France.
- 2-2 in a friendly away with Germany 2017 saw a 1-2 lead for France til the 90th minute.
- I am with France here today not to lose.
19:45 - Gibraltar v FYR Macedonia - 1.1 Macedonia
- A recent 4-0 beating of Liechtenstein for FYR suggests a likely scoreline today.
- Gibraltar recorded their first win in a while with a 1-0 v Latvia.
- Expect more like 0-3/ 0-4 today.
19:45 - Latvia v Andorra - 1.3 Latvia
- 0-1 and 4-0 wins for Latvia in recent head to heads.
- The last 3 teams Latvia have beaten are Andorra 0-1, Andorra 4-0 and Estonia 1-0.
- Andorra have won 3 matches since 2017. 0-2 v San Marino, 1-0 v Hungary and 0-1 v Liechtenstein. The Hungary result was a real coupon buster.
- I would back 0-0 pre match here. I could see the Andorrans lasting to halftime with a 0-0, and then eventually losing 2nd half.
19:45 - Norway v Cyprus - 1.4 Norway
- Last met 2013.
- 4 consecutive wins for Norway in friendlies v Australia, Albania, Iceland and Panama. Unbeaten at home in 7 matches. The last team to beat Norway at home were Germany.
- Cyprus have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches. They did beat Bosnia 3-2 at home in a World Cup qualifier but that is really the only highlight.
- I would definitely take on any Cypriot lead. If they have trouble even scoring, they are unlikely to manage 2 goals. 10 losses in 11 away. They did beat Gibraltar.
19:45 - Slovenia v Bulgaria - 2.24 Slovenia
- Last head to head 2007. Not a match for me. Inplay stats will reveal all.
19:45 - Wales v Rep of Ireland - 1.98 Wales
- A good old fashioned local derby.
- 0-0, 0-0, 0-1 Ireland last 3 head to heads.
- Is this the pattern of today? If so, back 0-0 pre-match at its highest point and hope to cash out at halftime.
- Only 3 losses in 15 matches for Wales. Their 3 losses recently came last 6 matches. 1-2-1-0-1-0 conceded. They conceded 2 goals v France. It looks as if Wales have a strong defensive bent.
- Since 2016, only 2 losses at home for Wales were 0-1 v Ireland and Uruguay.
- 3 losses in 4 for the Irish, 2 came in friendlies v Turkey and France. A recent win v the USA.
- It seems to me that the Irish have trouble scoring 2 goals v better opponents. This may leave them vulnerable if scoring first, although they could repeat a 0-1 win again. That is always the worry laying an Irish lead.
19:45 - Armenia v Liechtenstein - 1.17 Armenia
- No head to heads.
- Recently Armenia had a 0-0 v Estonia, 0-1 loss to Lithuania, 1-1 v Malta and 0-0 v Moldova. A feeling Liechtenstein are a level down from this motley crew.
- Only 3 wins for Liechtenstein since 2012, one recently was a 1-2 win v Qatar. They failed to score in the 7 matches which surrounded that win.
- Armenia are no great shakes. 0-0 may be in play. 1.17 suggests 3/4 goal expectation though.
U21 EURO CHAMPIONSHIPS
16:00 - Moldova U21 v Belarus U21 - 2.28 Belarus
- 2-1, 1-1, 3-1 in Belarus favour in the 3 most recent head to heads.
- This suggests that we lay Moldova U21 should they score first. It suggests worst case for Belarus U21 is a score draw.
18:00 - Azerbaijan U21 v Israel U21 - 2.1 Israel
- 3-1 israel U21 in the most recent head to head.
- 6 losses and 4 draws in their last 10 in this competition for Azer. They failed to score in their last 4 matches.
- They did beat Israel U21 at home in September 2014.
- 4 losses in 5 matches for Israel u21 v Ireland, Germany twice and Norway.
- Israel failed to score in 5 of their last 7 aways.
- An unappealing match. In-play stats will reveal all.
19:00 - Spain U21 v Albania U21 - 1.06 Spain u21
- 4+ goals expected of the Spaniards, and at least a goal before halftime. See yesterday's match regarding Czech U21 re: how to play 1.06 shots matches.
19:30 - Scotland U21 v Andorra U21 - 1.11 Scotland
- When I see Andorra u21 I think loss to nil.
- It was rather intriguingly 1-1 when these 2 met in Andorra in March 2018. This was a great trading match. Andorra U21 scored a 77th minute penalty, and those with Big Kahunas under their kilts would have kept the faith in the Scots to not lose and layed those Andorrans as late as humanly possible. You would have been amply rewarded with a 90th minute Scots equaliser.
- I would love more of this today! The market though sees it differently. Prepare for a surprise but do not be surprised should said surprise surprisingly not arrive.
- The value seekers might want to back 0-0 pre-match and hope for more Scots troubles. Cash out at halftime if 0-0.
19:45 - England U21 v Netherlands U21 - 1.73 England
- 1-1 in the most recent head to head.
- Eng-er-land have only lost to Portugal and Italy since September 2013 in this competition.
- 5 consecutive wins recently.
- 8 wins and a 2-2 v Germany at home recently. Eng-er-land should feel confident of engineering a positive result today.
- Only 4 wins in 10 for the Dutch. 3 wins in 4 recently, albeit v Latvia and Andorra twice. Only 4 wins in 10 away for the Dutch in this competition.
- I am with the English side today not to lose.