Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Tips Bulletin, July 6, 2017

A full day of trading yesterday. I really enjoyed it, as did my Betfair betting bank. I hope that was the case for you. I will try for a full day today. I have no unexpected commitments today. See you on Twitter @drtclub. I have listed the Europa League. I will not be researching but just noting first leg scores. Tennis dominates.

David Ferrer v Steve Darcis - 1.43 Ferrer

  • 32nd v 53rd.
  • Last head to heads was 2008.
  • Ferrer continued his habit of conceding at least a set but ended a run of 3 losses (winning at least a set) with a great win over Richard Gasquet who is a solid yardstick.
  • Darcis beat 212th ranked player in the opening round in 5 sets.
  • It is tough to trust Ferrer whose light is dimming. The market though retains faith in him today. I think this will not be a 3-0/0-3 so that is a ready angle.

Dudi Sela v John Isner - 1.19 Isner

  • 97th v 24th.
  • 4-0 Isner in head to heads.
  • Sela has been plying his trade on the Challenger Tour.
  • He beat 65th ranked Granollers in 5 sets first round.
  • Isner won 3-0 in his opener and there was one tie breaker.
  • Ivo Karlovic is a great example for tie breakers like Isner. If they do not win the tie breaker, they can go out early!
  • I think Isner will win today. Do look out for tie breakers as this may increase Isner's odds in running.

Ekaterina Makarova v Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.44 Kuznetsova

  • 43rd v 9th.
  • 5 consecutive Kuz wins in head to heads. These 2 are Ruskies so will know each other's game very well.
  • These are the shortest odds for Kuz in 4 head to heads and she has won at higher odds.
  • Makarova beat 130th in her opener. Kuz reached the quarters in Eastbourne losing in 3 sets to 3rd in the world.
  • I will enter this match expecting a Kuznetsova win in line with rankings and head to heads.

Grigor Dimitrov v Marcos Baghdatis - 1.15 Dimitrov

  • 12th v 60th.
  • 7-1 Dimitrov in head to heads.
  • Baggy has had 2 retirements within the last 6 matches. Any heat today may see Baggy throw in the towel.
  • Dimitrov lost to Lopez in Queens and Lopez is the man on grass (alas injured for Wimbledon).
  • We will see, if Baggy is fit, a committed performance. Committed players like Ferrer managed a shock yesterday. I do think the recent Baggy retirements suggests he may not have the stamina to cope with a fully fit Dimitrov.

Mischa Zverev v Mikhail Kukushkin - 1.23 Zverev

  • 35th v 76th.
  • Head to heads come from 2013.
  • A cloud over the opener for Mischa as Bernard Tomic threw the match effectively . I did note Tomic beating Zverev recently on grass so not true form.
  • Kukushkin went to Challenger Tour events between the French Open and here.
  • 4 setter v 114th for Kukushkin.
  • I am not sure what to make of Zverev. I do think he will not be losing 3-0 so that is a ready angle.

Tatjana Maria v Coco Vandeweghe - 1.28 Coco

  • 103rd v 23rd.
  • Most recent head to head 2015 on grass saw Coco win.
  • Maria saw her opponent retire first round at Wimbledon. She is generally a 100K player.
  • Coco beat Konta at Birmingham then retired. She beat Mona Barthel in the opener.
  • Last year on grass saw an 11-2 Coco win/loss ratio which should see her clear today IF that retirement recently did not mask an injury.

Adam Pavlasek v Novak Djokovic - 1.02 Novak

  • 107th v 2nd.
  • An easy opener for Novak as his opponent retired. He won at Eastbourne on grass which is a positive sign.
  • Still at 1.03 he must be layed. Adam needs 2 players I think on his side to win. 1.03 lays are to be encouraged as 'the only way is up' for the odds.

Gael Monfils v Kyle Edmund - 1.26 Monfils

  • 17th v 42nd.
  • No head to heads.
  • A final at Nottingham was an excellent pipe opener for Monfils on grass. Edmund huffed and puffed v 473rd Ward until the rankings differential came through.
  • I do think Monfils is favoured here. Perhaps a year too early for Edmund who is still young, talented but has his best days ahead of him.
  • Monfils should not be losing 3-0. We might see a competitive Edmund which I hope increases the Monfils odds. I would back him at 1.7 or 1.8 in play.

Kristina Mladenovic v Alison Riske - 1.42 Kristina

  • 19th v 39th.
  • 4-0 Mladenovic in head to heads. At least one tie breaker in each head to head.
  • Mladenovic looks like a fighter. In Birmingham, 2nd sets were all tie breakers. She lost in 3 sets to Kuznetsova.
  • On that basis I would like Riske to win the first set as I think Mladenovic will dig her heels in (I do hope though she won't be playing in heels).

Agnieszka Radwanska v Christina McHale - 1.34 Aggy

  • 8th v 44th, Aggy for me is like 4th ranked Cibulkova. Not very reliable.
  • 5-0 though for Aggy in head to heads sees her not drop a set. The last head to head 2017 in Sydney saw the first set go to a tie breaker so McHale showed some fight.
  • McHale has poor recent formLLWLLLW (L=Loss, W=Win).She beat 280th in 3 sets in her opener.
  • I would be laying Aggy if Aggy wins the first set in order to lessen the liability. As I say Aggy is unreliable but McHale is in poor form.

Juan Martin Del Potro v Ernests Gulbis - 1.15 Del Potro

  • 33rd v 169th.
  • Last head to head was 2014.
  • A 4 setter for Del v Kokkanakis in the opener. Gulbis dropped only 4 games in his opener v 83rd.
  • I have said it before, it takes a good 'un to beat Del. Recent victors? Djokovic; Djokovic; Federer; Harrison; Djokovic; Elias; Murray. Overwhelmingly top 5 players are the ones who halt Del Boy.
  • Slight concern no grass court warm up for Del given his history of injury.
  • 5 consecutive tournaments for Gulbis where he did not get past the qualifier. He lost in 3 sets at Roland Garros to Cilic.In a recent Challenger, Gulbis did not play.
  • Del really should be winning here. A watching brief if his odds rise, I'll get involved.

Ryan Harrison v Tomas Berdych - 1.13 Berdych

  • 50th v 13th.
  • Berdych has won the 2 recent head to heads in 3 sets (first to 2) and 3 sets (first to 3).
  • We saw a 2nd set tie breaker in both matches so it seems the first set loser will battle 2nd set.
  • LLLLLLW (L=Loss, W=win) for Harrison recently. Poor stuff. An impressive 3 set win v Borna Coric (2 tie breakers) in the first round here.
  • Berdych has had 5 tie breakers in his last 3 grass court matches.
  • I do feel that Berdych may out at the end, but at 1.14 he is not backable. I will therefore be laying him at 1.14 at the off in the hope we get a Gilles Muller-like struggle.
  • If you want to wait, lay the first set winner in the hope the head to head patterns of 2nd set tie breaker comes to fruition today.

Dusan Lajovic v Roger Federer - 1.02 Fed

  • Brilliant Fed must be layed at 1.03. It only takes a calf strain, a fall in play for us to see a rise in the odds. It is a lay to nothing.

Frances Tiafoe v Alexander Zverev - 1.1 Zverev

  • 72nd v 21st.
  • Straight set Zverev win in the Australian Open in 2017.
  • Semi Final and Final for Zverev pre Wimbledon grass court tournaments.
  • Tiafoe has won 2 consecutive Challenger Tournaments recently albeit on clay. He look 4 sets to beat Haase.
  • Tiafoe will not be winning 3-0 so a real hope Tiafoe wins the first set. I do though expect Zverev win and unlikely I will see a trading opportunity unless Alex wears clown shoes.

Dominic Thiem v Gilles Simon - 1.26 Thiem

  • The enigma that is Dominic Thiem, fresh from a loss to a 264th ranked player on Grass in Antalya.
  • 9th v 30th.
  • Thiem has won the last 4 most recent head to heads, including 2 2017 encounters and we have seen a tie breaker in each of the 2017 head to heads.
  • Thiem's odds are significantly shorter than the 1.53 quoted when he beat Simon this year on hard.
  • Losses to 46th and 264th on grass came out of the blue for this Finalist in madrid, Semi Finalist in Roma and Semi Finalist in the French Open.
  • Poor Simon has met the likes of Lopez and my mate Karen, 2 solid yardsticks and lost to them.
  • I will hope for a tie breaker at some point as we have seen in the 2 recent head to heads. I would be laying the first set winner here. Thiem's recent dire grass court performances have no reason to them.

Tsvetana Pironkova v Caroline Wozniacki - 1.45 Wozza

  • 74th v 11th.
  • Last meeting 2012.
  • Quarters French Open, Final in Eastbourne and affected by an abdominal strain, Wozza is in great form.
  • She lost the first set v babos first round.
  • Pironkova took Halep to 2 tie breakers in eastbourne.
  • I think Wozza will be tested today and her odds may rise above the 1.45 pre match. I would be keen to back Wozza at 1.9 or evens in play.
  • This could be a good battle. Prinkova does tend to lose to players lower ranked.
  • I would love if Pironkova won the first set as I would be more confident in backing Wozza then.

EUROPA LEAGUE

15:00 - A.E.L.v St Josephs - 1.06 AEL

  • 0-4 AEL from the first leg.

15:00 - Dacia Chisinau v Shkendija - 2.46 Shk

  • 3-0 Shk from the first leg.

16:00 - FC Ordabasy v Siroki Brijeg - 1.74 FC

  • 2-0 Siroki from the first leg.

16:00 - FK Suduva v Shakhter Soligorsk - 1.73 Shak

  • 0-0 first leg. All to play for. Advantage away side as an away goal requires 2 from Suduva.

16:00 - KF Tirana v Maccabi Tel Aviv - 1.35 Maccabi

  • 2-0 Maccabi first leg.

16:00 - Milsami v Fola Esch - 1.74 Milsami

  • 2-1 first leg. Away goal for Milsami sees slight advantage with them.

16:00 - Pelister Bitola v Lech Poznan - 1.44 Lech

  • 4-0 Lech. Tie over you'd think with an away goal to wrap it up.

16:30 - FK Jelgava v Ferencvaros - 2.18 Feren

  • 2-0 Ferencvaros first leg. An away goal seals this one.

16:30 - Rabotnicki v Tre Penne - 1.14 Rab

  • 0-1 Rabot first leg. Crucial away goal and clean sheet. Clear advantage home side.

17:00 - FK Atlantas v Kairat Almaty - 1.44 Almaty

  • 6-0 Kairat in the first leg.

17:00 - Flora Tallinn v Domzale - 2.12 Dom

  • 2-0 Domzale in the first leg. Did not concede an away goal. An away goal today puts this beyond Flora.

17:00 - Gandzasar Kapan v Mladost Podgorica - 2.76 Gand

  • 1-0 Mladost. Slender lead but did not concede an away goal, 0-0 suits away side. 2-0 a must for the home side.

17:00 - HJK Helsinki v Connahs Quay - 1.11 HJK

  • 1-0 Connahs Quay. Brilliant performance. HJK must score 3 today to guard against an errant away goal.

17:45 - FK Liepaja v Crusaders - 1.55 FK

  • 3-1 Crusaders first leg. They did concede an away goal but have a comfortable lead. If they score a goal, Crusader will give FK a mountain to climb.
  • FK must keep a clean sheet and score 2 goals.

18:00 - AIK v KI Klaksvik - 1.09 AIK

  • 0-0 from the first leg so really advantage KI here as if they score, AIK need to score 2 goals. The market though expects AIK to batter them, scoring 3/4 goals today minimum.

18:00 - Botev Plovdiv v Partizani Tirana - 1.38 Botev

  • 1-3 Botev. Game over. 3 away goals.

18:00 - Differdange v Zira - 2.5 Diff

  • 2-0 Zira first leg. Advantage them if they can score an away goal having not conceded an away goal first leg.

18:00 - Dunav Ruse v Irtysh Pavlodar - 2.3 Dunav

  • 1-0 Irtysh in the first leg. No away goal conceded.

18:00 - FC Vaduz v Bala Town - 1.25 FC

  • 1-2 Vaduz first leg. 2 away goals. A 0-1 loss does for Vaduz today who looked the better side first leg after a 0-2 lead.

18:00 - Inter Baku v Mladost Lucani - 2.04 Inter

  • 0-3 Inter first leg. This should be game over with so many away goals.

18:00 - Ruzomberok v Vojvodina - 2.26 Ruz

  • 2-1 Voj first leg so all to play for really. Ruz though must score that first goal as then they will be in command of the tie.
  • 1-0 ideal for home side but 0-0 ok away side to go through. A Voj away goal will leave Ruz with a mountain to climb.

18:00 - Slovan Bratislava v FC Pyunik - 1.16 Slovan

  • 1-4 Slovan first leg. Tie over!

18:00 - Torpedo Kutaisi v Trencin - 2.16 Trencin

  • 5-1 Trencin first leg. Obviously the better side but did concede an away goal. IF Trencin score today, that will Torpedo Torpedo.

19:00 - Prishtina v Norrkoping - 1.24 Norr

  • 5-0 Norrkoping first leg. No away goal conceded. Perfick!

19:00 - Sarajevo v Zaria Balti - 1.26 Sara

  • 2-1 Zaria. Another precarious match. Sarajevo have an away goal. They are also losing so cannot afford Zaria scoring first.

19:15 - Olimpija v VPS - 1.51 Olim

  • 1-0 VPS first leg. No away goal conceded. If they score today, Oli will need 3 goals. Imperative for Oli to get 2 at least.

19:30 - Floriana v Crvena Zvezda - 1.35 Crv

  • 3-0 Crvena in the first leg. This should be tie over as Crvena are highly likely to score.

19:30 - Gorica v FC Shirak - 1.62 Gorica

  • 0-2 Gorica first leg. 2 away goals means Shirak must reply in kind without conceding.

19:30 - Jagiellonia Bialystock v Dinamo Batumi - 1.2 Jag

  • 0-1 Jag first leg. Away goal in hand.

19:30 - SCR Altach v Chikhura Sachkhere - 1.4 SCR

  • 0-1 Altach. Away goal to hand. Chik must score first.

19:30 - SS Folgore-Falciano v Valletta - 1.59 Valletta

  • 2-0 Valletta first leg. No away goal conceded.

19:30 - UE Sant Julia v Skenderbeu - 1.35 Skend

  • 1-0 Skender first leg. No away goal conceded. Score an away goal today and that should wrap this up.

19:30 - Vasas v Beitar Jerusalem - 2.46 Vasas

  • 4-3 Beitar first leg saw Beitar score 3 89th minute goals.
  • A hint that Vasas were the better side 1-3 up but eyes off the ball late on.
  • All to play for.

19:45 - Ballymena v Odds BK - 1.45 Odds

  • 3-0 Odd in the first leg.

19:45 - Coleraine v Haugesund - 1.38 Hauge

  • 7-0 Haugesund first leg. Game over.

19:45 - Derry v FC Midtjylland - 1.43 FC

  • 6-1 FC first leg. Tie over. Such scope for FC to even lose 5-0 and still progress.

19:45 - Osijek v UE Santa Coloma - 1.05 Osijek

  • 0-2 Osijek first leg.

20:00 - Shamrock Rovers v Stjarnan - 1.69 Shamrock

  • 0-1 Shamrock first leg. Precious away goal.

21:00 - Lincoln Red Imps v AEK Larnaca - 1.39 AEK

  • 5-0 AEK first leg.

21:00 - Valur v FK Ventspils - 1.86 Valur

  • 0-0 first leg - all to play for. Advantage away side under away goal rule if scoring.