It was the gonzo-dog doo-dah band show last night. Gonzalo Higuain's 2 goals for Juventus brought in my 0-2 away scoreline as part of my three-pronged attack at 3-2, 2-2 and 0-2 'in case Juventus clean sheets kick in'. I hope you profited. Delighted to call a first leg semi-final correct. 0-2 a nice price too as the market, and his mother, expected Monaco to score.
Remember this was a Juventus who kept Neymar, Messi, Suarez from scoring in 2 matches! So Mbappe - no problems!
Tonight sees Dinamo Zagreb, to me, layable in a match they should win but scorelines have been awfully tight. Manchester United are playing a Celta Vigo side with questionable form. They will, I suspect, take yet another 1-1 as long as that away goal is attained. This is a United side extremely hard to beat.
17:00 - Inter Zapresic v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.16 Dinamo Zagreb
- 4 consecutive Dinamo Zagreb 0-1 wins in away matches does not coincide with the odds quoted to them.
- This is 8th v 2nd in the Croatian top league. Dinamo Zagreb, alas, are not the reliable team of old.
Inter Zapresic form
- Not beaten a top 5 side and remember they play teams multiple times as it is a league of only 10 teams.
- Really tight matches at home v top 2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-1.
- No win in 15 matches.
- 2 consecutive 1-1 draws at home.
Dinamo Zagreb form
- Lost 2 of their last 3 matches.
- Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- 3 of their last 5 away scorelines were either 2-1/1-2.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- Scored in their last 15 away matches.
- All away wins v 6th and lower.
- Kept a clean sheet in 8 of 10 matches home and away v teams 8th and lower.
- Dinamo Zagreb should be winning but this could be a really tight one. 0-1 or 1-2. 0-1 has been the consistent head to head away scoreline.
- I know Dinamo are supposed to win but in expectation of a tight match, would it not be good value to lay Dinamo if their odds begin as short as they are when I write this? Better yet, lay them if they score first given they have lost 2 of their last 3 matches.
- That is the value. Realistically they should be winning and keeping a clean sheet.
20:05 - Celta Vigo v Manchester United - 2.58 Man Utd
- The markets do tend to find it hard to split teams in these European competition semi-finals.
- As I have done previously, I'll do a quick check on overall form and Europa League specific form for both sides.
Celta Viga overall recent form
- Only 2 wins in 8 matches. A draw and 3 defeats in their last 4 matches.
- 4 defeats to nil at home in their last 6 matches saw 2 good wins v Las Palmas and Genk. I venture that Man Utd are a step above these 2.
Celta Vigo Europa League form
- It has been a relatively easy passage for Celta meeting the likes of Krasnador, and Genk most recently. To quantify the form as regards meeting Man Utd is difficult.
- 2 consecutive home wins saw both teams score.
Man Utd overall recent form
- Only 2 defeats in 40 matches came in the League Cup and Fa Cup. You could argue that was because these competitions were not prioritised. Effectively if Man Utd are interested, you get a good performance.
- Only once in 18 matches has Man Utd conceded 2 goals in a game away from home. They have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 4 away matches.
Man Utd Europa League form
- Previously in this competition Man Utd have not seems to be worried about it. This year, they are keen.
- 4 consecutive wins and 2 away draws were 1-1 and convenient as they were 1st leg matches and so an away goal was scored.
- 2 consecutive 1-1 draws away and United will take that today.
- Although the market is none too keen on taking sides, for me, Man Utd's form looks far more reliable than Celta Vigo's. Man Utd would be delighted with a 1-1 draw as they have done in their previous 2 first leg away matches.
- A goal is all that Jose will ask for today. With only 2 defeats in 40 matches I think Man Utd can win or draw tonight and so I will be opposing any Celta Vigo lead. I cannot see anything in the Celta form recently to really trouble Man Utd.