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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Tottenham v Chelsea - 2.15 Chelsea

  • London Derby, new manager for Chelsea. NO interest in pre-match research. In-play stats or not at all.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets for Chelsea.
  • 1st goal: Spurs have scored first in 14/18 home matches while Chelsea have lost 9/11 away matches against top-six teams. Spurs have won the first half in 8/11 home matches.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

15:00 - Farense v Santa Clara - 2.70 Farense

  • Leave this to the in-play stats.
  • 1st goal: Farense have scored first in 4/8 home matches while Santa Clara have conceded first in 7/11 away matches against bottom-six teams. Santa Clara have drawn the first half in 11/20 away matches.

19:00 - Belenenses v Porto - 1.40 Porto

Belenenses - 12th

  • Only 2 wins in 15 matches.
  • 5 losses last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in 10 of their last 14 matches.
  • 2/2 defeats v the top 3.
  • 6/7 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Porto - 2nd

  • 9 wins and a 1-1 last 10 matches.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • Scored last 16 matches.
  • Not played 8th-14th away.

Conclusions

  • Belenenses are consistently having trouble scoring. The last time Porto met a team like that was Rio Ave, last match, a 2-0 win, so I really do expect Porto to continue their scoring record and nab a potential win to nil.
  • Match outcome: Belenenses have lost 6/8 home matches against Big Three teams while FC Porto have won 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams. FC Porto have won the first half in 8/12 away matches against middle-third teams.

21:00 - Braga v Portimonense - 1.40 Braga

Braga - 4th

  • No draw.
  • 2 consecutive wins to nil.
  • 6 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored in their last 6 at home.
  • 100% wins at home v 10th and lower.

Portimonense - 13th

  • Only 4 wins, one came away.
  • All defeats away bar a draw last away match.
  • Conceded last 8 away.
  • All defeats v the top 5.

Conclusions

  • Braga were superb away from home in their last match and I could see that momentum continue here. 100% wins v 10th and lower and 6 consecutive home wins. Portimonense have lost all matches v the top 5.
  • Match outcome: Sp. Braga have won 9/11 home matches while Portimonense have lost 18/20 away matches against top-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 Portimonense away matches against top-six teams.

21:30 - Famalicao v Moreirense - 2.10 Famalicao

Famalicao - 15th

  • 5 losses and a win last 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home defeats.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded last 6 and last 8 at home.
  • Opponents scored first in 7/8 at home.
  • Not played 6th-9th at home.

Moreirense - 8th

  • Only 4 wins, the last 2 were only 1-0.
  • 0-0-0-1-0-0-1 goals scored away. Did pull off a 0-1 win latest.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Moreirense's Achilles Heel is a consistent inability to score that 2nd goal away from home and that is the expectation for me today. If they score first, lay them but cover the 0-1.
  • 1st goal: Famalicao have conceded first in 9/11 home matches and they have lost the first half in 7/11 home matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 14/20 Moreirense away matches against bottom-six teams.

DANISH SUPER LIGA

17:00 - Midtjylland v SonderjyskE - 1.35 Midtjylland

  • I really thought it was a new season in Denmark but they have not played a match, this current season, since 21st December 2020.
  • 1st v 5th when we left off. 13 matches played. Sonder beat Midt 2-0 earlier this season. Yes, another revenge mission match and when the market speaks, the market has been very accurate.
  • Midtjylland (Midt) are unbeaten at home.
  •  They have kept 4 clean sheets.
  • Sonder have only played 2 of the top 4 away, 2-1 loss v 2nd, 1-2 win v 4th.
  • Angles? Long lay off so an assumption these 2 are fully wound up. Revenge on the cards for Midt and the market is with them gaining revenge over the previous 2-0 loss.

19:00 - Nordsjaelland v Brondby - 2.25 Brondby

  • 8th v 2nd.
  • 3-2 loss to Brondby for Nord last time these 2 met this season.
  • Interestingly, Nord beat all 3 of the top 4 at home!
  • Brondby have a 100% win record v 8th and lower.
  • Angles? Watching brief given this is the return match. Also, Nord have been excellent v the top 4 at home. Surely not another win at home v the top 4?

TURKISH SUPER LIG

13:00 - Goztepe v Malatyaspor - 2.30 Goztepe

  • 13th v 10th.
  • Only 2 wins for Goztepe since 12th December 2020.
  • Only 2 wins for Malatyaspor since 23rd December 2020.
  • Angles? Not for me. gaps in form. Poor recent form.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 10/15 Goztepe SK home matches and +3.5 goals in 10/15 Goztepe SK home matches. Yeni Malatyaspor have lost the first half in 13/19 away matches.

16:00 - Trabzonspor v Denizlispor - 1.55 Trabzonspor

Trabzonspor - 5th

  • Only 1 loss since 7th November.
  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower.
  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • 10/15 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Denizlispor - 21st

  • Only 4 wins, did win last match.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away, conceded last 10 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only played one of the top 8 away, a loss v 2nd.

Conclusions

  • Bottom of the league Denizlispor are vulnerable today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Trabzonspor are in excellent form and unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower.
  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 Trabzonspor home matches against bottom-six teams and in 7/10 Denizlispor away matches. Denizlispor have conceded first in 6/7 away matches against top-six teams.

SWISS SUPER LEAGUE

17:15 - Luzern v Servette - 2.20 Luzern

Luzern - 9th

  • A draw and 2 losses last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 home win.
  • 8/10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 7/10 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
  • 1-3 win v Servette last time.
  • Only lost to top 2 at home.

Servette - 7th

  • Only 1 loss in 8.
  • 3 1-1 draws in 4 came at home.
  • 3 consecutive away wins.
  • Have lost away to 2nd, 5th, 6th and 8th.

Conclusions

  • 1 match back after the Xmas break. Luzern won last head to head. But Servette are on a 3 match winning run away.
  • Servette have the best recent form.

19:30 - Lausanne v Basel - 2.37 Basel

Lausanne - 6th

  • Draw, loss, draw last 3 matches.
  • No draw in 8 at home.
  • 8/11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Basel - 2nd

  • Both teams scored last 4 matches.
  • 1-2, 2-3 wins last 2 aways.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 away.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away, none at fulltime.
  • 7/9 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Basel beat Lausanne earlier this season. Lausanne did beat 3rd at home but lost at home to 1st, 4th and 5th.
  • Only 1 loss home and away for Basel v 5th and lower.
  • The market cannot split these 2 sides. Both teams could score today and if Basel can manage 2 goals again, that will be a step towards the win.