The standout trade (quite apart from Melissa's wonder lay of Liverpool - see the DRT Facebook page) was Inter Milan's lead away at a Barcelona who I recounted had an outstanding home record in the Champions League. Cue the orthodontist's favourite football, Luis Suarez to score 2 goals. Angles and confidence. That's what we want. And we have it in spades with THAT Barcelona home record. I really hope you honed in on that match above all others. Angles and confidence may be in short supply this evening in the Europa League. This is a league best traded via the in-play stats. Do choose your battles this evening. I like, for instance, Sevilla who I know LOVE this competition. Arsenal, if Aubameyang plays, will be next best. Roma may show their best against Wolfsberger from the weaker Austrian Bundesliga so I'd shortlist that match. I feel too, that PSV are a little stronger than Rosenborg. As you see, a small handful of standout matches amongst a lot of very tough to call, and research, matches.
I will try and be online later at DRT Facebook, but if I do not show, please remember, you newbies, that I have a +6 hour time difference! My thanks go to Gary, Andrew, Melissa and others who sometimes start threads at the DRT Facebook page so please do join in.
15:50 - FC Astana v Partizan Belgrade - 2.26 Astana
- Group L includes these 2 and the 2 teams below.
- 2 consecutive defeats for Astana in the EL, one v Man Utd saw a tight match.
- A 2-2 for Partizan v AZ was helped by an AZ red card.
- Angles? Unappealing for me. Do note though that Astana kept Man Utd to a very late goal. Defensively sound?
17:55 kick off
AZ Alkmaar v Man Utd - 2.54 Man Utd
- Group L looks relatively weak with Partizan and Astana.
- AZ are unbeaten in 8 EL matches. Their opponents are nowhere near the level of a top 6 Premier League side.
- A pretty poor run for Man Utd. Loss away at West Ham, draw at home v Rochdale, draw at home v Arsenal.
- Man Utd have scored 1-1-1-1-1-0-1-1 goals in recent matches in all competitions. This is poor stuff.
- No loss in 12 EL matches for United, albeit the vast majority coming under different managers.
- 1-0 win at home v Astana was very laboured.
- In May 2017 they beat Ajax 0-2 away.
- Angles? 2.54 suggests the market has zero confidence in Man Utd this evening. If United continue to struggle to score that 2nd goal, it seems logical to lay them if they lead?
Basaksehir v Mgladbach - 2.28 Mgladbach
- Group J includes Wolfsberg and Roma also.
- 2015-2016-2017 Basaksehir have appeared in the EL but only 2 wins in all that time.
- 4-0 loss v Roma in this group was emphatic.
- Only 1 win for Mgladbach in 7 EL matches suggests that this is not their priority. A whopping 0-4 loss v Wolfsberger is poor stuff. We ordinarily expect a German Bundesliga side to cope with an Austrian Bundesliga side.
- Angles? I see little enthusiasm between these 2 sides for this league. No thanks!
Besiktas v Wolves - 2.4 Wolves
- Group K includes the teams below.
- 2.4 the favourite suggests a tough match to call.
- Group K also sees the 2 teams named below.
- 3 losses and a draw for Besiktas in their last 4 matches.
- Only 1 win in 6 EL matches for Besiktas. 4-2 loss v Slovan.
- Wolves are unbeaten in 3 matches in all competitions now after a poor season.
- Wolves first loss after 6 wins in the EL, came v Braga, a 0-1 loss.
- Angles? 2.4 as you know suggests leaving the match alone from a trading perspective. Wolves are on an unbeaten run of 3 matches. Enough to suggest they can perform well this evening?
Braga v Slovan Bratislava - 1.42 Braga
- Group K also includes Wolves and Besiktas.
- Braga have a good recent EL record. 5 consecutive wins, unbeaten in 8 matches.
- 2 1-0 wins in their last 3 matches. A nice win v Wolverhampton Wanderers.
- 3 wins and a 2-2 for Braga at home in the EL.
- Slovan are a Slovakian side.
- 10 wins and 3 losses for Slovan in their last 13 matches in the EL.
- Angles? As is typical with the Europa League, it is tough to quantify the teams at times. We must take our cues from the market. Braga have had a couple of 1-0 wins so look defensively strong.
CSKA Moscow v Espanyol - 2.02 CSKA
- 6 wins in 7 matches for CSKA in all competitions.
- They scored 2+ goals in 6/7 matches.
- Only 3 wins in 12 matches for CSKA in the EL is poor stuff.
- A 5-1 loss to Ludogorets is emphatically poor stuff from CSKA.
- Espanyol were last in the EL in 2007 and are unbeaten in 2019. 2 consecutive score draws. 1-1 v Ferencvaros. The Ferencvaros goal was an own goal.
- Angles? On the limited set of information we have, I must side with Espanyol not to lose based on their 2019 EL form.
Ferencvaros v Ludogorets - 2.68 Ferencvaros
- Group H also sees Espanyol and CSKA Moscow.
- 1-1 in their opener v Espanyol for Ferencvaros saw the goal scored via an own goal.
- 5-1 Ludogorets win v CSKA Moscow.
- Angles? No thanks. 2.68 the favourite. Too tough to call.
Feyenoord v Porto - 2.12 Porto
- In Group G,Rangers and Young Boys are also contenders in what looks like a tight group.
- Rangers beat Feyenoord 1-0 in the Group G opener.
- 8 consecutive wins for Porto includes a 2-1 win v Young Boys. Porto were last in the EL in 2016.
- Angles? I personally lean a little towards Porto here not to lose. Feyenoord have had a very inconsistent season (albeit they have been a great trading side).
Oleksandria v Gent - 1.81 Gent
- Group I also sees the 2 teams below.
- Olek were last in the EL in 2017. They started off this year with a 3-1 loss v Wolfsburg.
- 8 wins and 2 draws last 10 matches in all competitions for Gent.
- 3-2 win v St Etienne in their opener.
- Angles? Very limited form in the EL but Gent's 3 goal opening win should see them competitive here away in Ukraine.
St Etienne v Wolfsburg - 2.64 Wolfsburg
- The other 2 Group I teams look, on paper, to come from better leagues than Olek and Gent.
- St ETienne scored 2 goals away at Gent but lost. The Wolf were emphatic v Olek.
- Angles? 2.64 the favourite tells you - leave alone or trade via what you see or the in-play stats.
Wolfsberger AC v Roma - 1.86 Roma
- Group J sees 1st and 2nd. Mgladbach and Basaksehir are the other 2 sides in the group.
- Both the Wolf and Roma have won their openers.
- 8 wins and a 2-2 draw in all competitions for the Wolf, from Austria.
- They were last in the EL in in 2015. 0-4 win v Mgladbach in this group is impressive.
- Only 1 loss for Roma since 3rd April 2019 in all competitions.
- Roma were last in the EL in 2017, losing to Villareal and Lyon. 4-0 win v Basaksehir.
- Angles? Logic suggests Italian Seria A is stronger than the Austrian Bundesliga. Both sides had emphatic 4-0 opening wins.
Young Boys v Rangers - 1.98 Young Boys
- YB have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches in all competitions.
- Only 1 home loss for YB in all competitions since 23rd October 2018.
- YB were last in the EL in 2017. Since 2015, only 3 wins suggests they get overwhelmed outside of Switzerland.
- They lost 2-1 to Porto in Group G.
- Rangers have kept 4 clean sheets in all competitions.
- 7 clean sheets in 9 EL matches under Stevie G. 0-0 and 2 1-0 wins. They did beat Feyenoord 1-0 at home.
- Angles in? Young Boys are ultra reliable and ultra tradeable in the Swiss Super League but have a consistently poor record in the EL. Couple that with Rangers clean sheets and we may see the away side buck the market today. A match for the in-play stats to determine what kind of a mood this Young Boys side is in this evening.
20:00 kick off
Arsenal v Standard - 1.41 Arsenal
- Arsenal are unbeaten in 6 matches. 2+ goals scored in 5 of their last 6 matches.
- Arsenal do mix up their sides in the EL. Noticeably though, Aubameyang did play and score in the 0-3 win v Frankfurt.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in 10 home matches in the EL. 5 consecutive home wins, and 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 3 consecutive clean sheets for Standard.2-0 win v Guimaraes in their opener.
- Angles? I want to see Aubameyang playing this evening. He is the key to Arsenal's wins and draws. Simple as that! It will be a changed Arsenal side from their Premier League side. But look at their home record. It is very strong. And look at the manager - a renowned enthusiast for the EL.
Celtic v CFR Cluj - 1.59 Celtic
- Group E 1 and 2 after 1 match. Celtic drew 1-1 with Rennes in a match where the 2 goals were penalties. Cluj came from behind to beat Lazio at home.
- Celtic expect to be Champions League contenders. So, to be in the EL too early in the season is a concern.
- Celtic's only loss since May 2019 came.....v Cluj in a 3-4 loss in the Champions League. It was 1-1 and 3-4 when these 2 sides met in the Champions League. Indeed Cluj knocked out Celtic.
- Why the lurch towards Celtic as favourite today?
- Celtic lost to the likes of Salzburg and Valencia in the EL last season. Earlier on this season, they beat AIK home and away. A 1-1 draw with Rennes in this group, as I say.
- Strange form for Cluj in the EL. Losses v F91 of Luxembourg looks weak (2 losses). But then a 2-1 win v Lazio was impressive.
- Angles? Cluj knocked out Celtic earlier this year in the Champions League. A 1-1 and a 3-4 win. What is with Celtic's odds today? The value, based on head to heads, would seem to be to lay any Celtic lead here? But....the market must have a reason for such short odds about Celtic.
F91 Dudelange v Qarabag Fk - 1.85 Qarabag
- Luxembourg v Azerbaijan and a real lack of knowledge of these 2 teams precludes me wanting to trade this Group A match, shared with Sevilla and APOEL.
- F91 smashed the odds with a 2-4 win over APOEL away. F91 led 0-2 (lay them!). APEOL, as befit short priced favourites, made it 3-2, only for F91 to score 2 late winners.
- Qarabag lost 0-3 to Sevilla.
- Angles? What to make of F91's coupon busting win v APOEL? Trust it? Qarabag meet far weaker opponents than Sevilla. Remember APOEL were 1.3 favourites in that 3-4 loss to F91!
FK Krasnodar v Getafe - 2.38 FK
- Group C also saw basel and Trabzonspor.
- 6 consecutive matches now for Krasnador without a win in the EL. 5-0 tonking v Basel is poor stuff.
- 5 wins seeing both teams score and 2 draws last 7 EL home matches for FK.
- 1-1 v Valencia at home.
- FK meet another Spanish side in Getafe.
- Getafe were last in the EL in 2010. 1-0 win v Trabzonspor.
- Angles? Well, FK improve at home. That is clear but they are now 7 without a win in the EL. Not a match for any ready angles for me.
Guimaraes v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.1 Frankfurt
- Group F also sees Arsenal and Standard Liege. It looks a tough old group, making this match significant.
- Guimaraes lost 2-0 away v Standard Liege.
- Standard's first goal was an own goal and the 2nd was a 90th minute goal.
- 0-3 loss to Arsenal for Frankfurt. 2-2 v Dortmund and 1-2 win v Union Berlin for Frankfurt. The start of a revival?
- Since 2018, Frankfurt's only EL losses came v Benfica (Portuguese like today's opponents), Strasbourg and Arsenal.
- Angles? A slight nod here towards Frankfurt. Limited losses in this competition. Guimaraes are nowhere near the level of Frankfurt's recent conquerors Arsenal.
Lazio v Rennes - 1.55 Lazio
- Italian Seria A v French Ligue 1.
- Group E sees Lazio on zero points. Cluj and Celtic are currently 1st and 2nd and play each other today.
- Only 2 wins in 6 matches in all competitions for Lazio came at home.
- 5 consecutive defeats in the EL may suggest a Lazio not wholly taken by this competition. 2-1 loss v Cluj, saw Lazio score first.
- I am sure that the market would have fancied Lazio above Romanian side Cluj.
- Rennes are on a run of 4 draws and 2 losses last 6 matches in all competitions.
- Rennes had a solid run in the EL since 29th November 2018.Win, Win, Draw, Win, Win, loss v Arsenal. So far in this campaign a 1-1 v Celtic.
- Both goals were penalty goals.
- Angles? I am not taken by Lazio's recent EL form. It may suggest that they field a weaker side. Rennes had a great run in the 2018 EL campaign scoring 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches. Dare we lay Lazio if Lazio lead? That loss to Cluj was not expected.
Lugano v Dynamo Kiev - 2.12 Kiev
- Group B also sees Copenhagen and Malmo.
- Only 3 wins in 18 matches in all competitions for Lugano.
- 1-0 loss v Copenhagen for Lugano. Dynamo Kiev beat Malmo 1-0.
- Angles? Little to work with here. Switzerland v Ukraine.
Malmo FF v FC Copenhagen - 2.12 Malmo
- Sweden v Denmark. This should have a great atmosphere.
- Group B sees Dynamo Kiev and Lugano.
- Malmo's 3 losses in all competitions since July 2019 were only 1-0. Angle in?
- A 1-0 loss v Dynamo Kiev for Malmo saw an 84th minute goal.
- Copenhagen struggled in the EL in 2018. 0-1 loss, 0-0, 1-0 loss, 0-1 loss, 3-1 win v Riga, 1-0 loss v Riga, 1-0 win.
- A real habit?
Angles? this could be tight. Back 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 pre match and hope it is as tight as the patterns suggest.
Rosenborg v PSV - 1.87 PSV
- Group D also sees LASK linz and Sporting Lisbon.
- 6 defeats and a 1-1 draw for Rosenborg in the EL. Automatic lay if leading?
- 1-0 loss to Lask Linz.
- 10 wins and 3 draws for PSV last 13 matches in all competitions.
- 4 wins and a 0-0 in the EL for PSV.
- 3-2 win v Sporting is good stuff.
- Angles? One of the matches I think I would focus on this evening. And favour PSV who should really be Champions League, but like Celtic find themselves here in this lesser competition.
Sevilla v APOEL - 1.28 Sevilla
- We know Sevilla take this Europa League seriously.
- Since 2015, in the EL, Sevilla have had only 3 defeats. 2 of those defeats were 1-0 away.
- In 5 of their last 6 EL matches, Sevilla have scored 2 goals at least.
- Group A also sees Dudelange and Qarabag. This really should see Sevilla eyeing first place.
- A 0-3 win v Qarabag came away from home for Sevilla.
- APOEL lost 3-4 v Luxembourg side F91 Dudelange. For me, that is poor form. Sevilla should win convincingly. We expect 2/3 goals at least.
Sporting Lisbon v LASK Linz - 2 Sporting
- Group D also sees PSV and Rosenborg.
- Both teams have scored in 17 of Sporting's last 20 matches.
- 3-2 for PSV v Sporting in the first Group D match.
- Sporting's last 3 losses at home in the EL were only 0-1.
- 4 wins and a loss v Besiktas for LASK this EL, 1-0 win v Rosenborg in their Group D opener.
- Angles? As typifies this competition, it is tough to quantify these 2 teams. In the near past, Sporting have, if they lost, only lost 0-1.
Trabzonspor v FC Basel - 2.58 Trab
- Group C also includes Getafe and Krasnador.
- The market suggests leaving this well alone.
- 1-0 loss for Trab v Getafe.
- 7 wins and a 1-1 for Basel last 8 matches.
- 5-0 win v Krasnador was excellent for Basel.
- Angles? Sorry, I'll take the hint from the market. Leave alone or in-play stats.