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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 3, 2016

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signaled matches.

Look out for a 0-0 at halftime in matches where we expected goals. Augsburg v Werder Bremen was a ready recent example. Research suggested over 2.5 goals (3+ goals expected). The match was 0-0 at halftime. Where are the goals? Back over 2.5 goals at enhanced odds for the 2nd half. 3 goals were scored in this case.

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialized.

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favorites. The home team is usually galvanized by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

I back BANKER bets with level stakes, re-calculating the level stakes every 20 bets and bet with that new level stake amount for the next 20 bets.

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

Killer stats are in bold italics. MOTD signals any match(es) I would prioritize my focus on if I had to choose just one or two matches in order to shorten the work load. These are the Matches of The Day. The DRT stripped Bulletin is absent today.

Something in the water last night it seems as Arsenal led, then lost to a team they beat 0-3 away from home. Bayern Munich, with no Champions League distractions did equalise v Mainz but lost 1-2. Celtic failed to score. For those joining twitter @drtclub before 7pm, we actually had some excellent trades - isn't that always the way? No live chat tonight for obvious reasons if you check the coupon below. If I am online, I will tweet @drtclub as I did from about 4:30pm yesterday and as I say caught some excellent trades. Amazing how we build ourselves up for the Premiership, La Liga et al, yet it was the drab and obscure leagues which were most readable yesterday.

5pm - Istra v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.35 away - MOTD - A tight match but Istra should not win.

Standout Stats

  • We know about Zagreb at home - but away?
  • 2 1-1 draws and a 1-0 Dinamo win in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 8th v 1st in the Croatian 1.HNL league.

Istra

  • 3 1-0 losses and a 1-1 in matches played v the top 2 this season so go down fighting.
  • No win in 11.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.

Dinamo Zagreb

  • 9 consecutive wins and 3 away.
  • No draw in 12 matches and in 5 away.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Limited stats here but it does point to a 0-1, 0-2 away win. Best case for Istra is a 1-1. I would certainly lay Istra if Istra scored first.
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7pm - Granada v Sporting Gijon - 2.12 home

Standout Stats

  • 3-3 the last time these 2 met saw Gijon score 2 goals in the last 2 mins.
  • This is 19th v 18th so could be a nervy relegation 6 pointer in the Spanish La Liga.

Granada

  • Only 6 wins all season.
  • 8 losses in their last 11 matches.
  • No draw in 13 and in 7 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 home matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 17th and lower so will be eyeing up Gijon.
  • Only 2 0-0'sat halftime at home.
  • Opponents scored first 8/12 away.

Sporting Gijon

  • No win in 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8.
  • Only 6 wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • v 9th-15th is where Gijon get their wins. They even struggle v bottom 4 albeit goal laden matches, 1-2,3-3,0-3 the home matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A thoroughly unappealing match between 2 strugglers. On form, Gijon might score but not win. It is Granada with the better form against bottom 4 sides. Is this enough of an angle into this match?
  • Lay the late draw based on Granada.
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7:30pm - Espanyol v Betis - 2.1 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-3 to Espanyol in the most recent head to head.
  • This is 14th v 13th in Spanish La Liga.

Espanyol

  • 2 match winning streak.
  • Those were the only 2 wins in the last 10 matches.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 8.
  • Very good at home v 10th and lower with 5 wins to nil (albeit 4 1-0 wins), 2 1-1 draws and a 1-2 loss.

Real Betis

  • No win in 6 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 2 away.
  • Scored in their last 6 overall.
  • Only 1 loss in 7, albeit 5 draws and now 3 consecutive score draws, 2 2-2.
  • 3 of 4 wins away came v teams below them in the league.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Take the Barcelona match away and we have 2 other unfathomable La Liga matches which make little appeal. What can I salvage?
  • Well Espanyol are solid at home v 10th and lower and tend to keep matches tight without losing (but then what of the 7 over 2.5 goals matches recently?)
  • 3 consecutive score draws for betis might suggest laying Betis if Betis score first?
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7:45pm - Birmingham v Hull City - 2.12 away - MOTD - Drawn to the Hull away record v top 16 - Never conceded more than 1 goal in a single match.

Standout Stats

  • 2-0 to Hull in the only recent relevant head to head.
  • This is 8th v 2nd in the English Championship.

Birmingham

  • Only 3 losses in their last 14 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 7.
  • 5 wins in their last 6 at home.
  • No draw in 8 at home.

Hull City

  • 2 match winning streak away.
  • No draw in 8 away.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 7 clean sheets in their last 8.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 5.
  • 2 0-0's recently came at home.
  • Hull have not actually conceded 2 goals or more in a single match away v top 16 teams.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 14 of 18 away goals scored came 2nd half.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • 2 very solid defences and when I see these I think to back 0-0 pre match and hope these defences will out, at least until halftime.
  • If Birmingham score first, I would look to lay Birmingham, solely on the fact that Hull have not conceded 2 goals or more in all matches away v top 16 teams (Birmingham are 8th).
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7:45pm - Feyenoord v AZ - 2.04 home

Standout Stats

  • Both teams have scored in the last 7 head to heads.
  • This is the Dutch Cup.

Feyenoord

  • Only 1 win in their last 12 matches was last match v Utrecht.
  • A draw, 3 defeats and a draw in their last 5 home matches.
  • Only 3 losses in their last 16 cup matches stretches back to 2010.
  • Their last 2 cup matches went to extra time i.e. draws at 90 minutes.
  • Unbeaten in their last 7 home cup matches, albeit stretching back to 2011.

AZ

  • 8 match winning sequence ended by Ajax latest.
  • 5 unbeaten away ended by that Ajax win.
  • Only 2 losses in 22 Cup matches were v Twente and Ajax.
  • 4 match winning streak albeit v lower league opponents.
  • 10 wins and a Twente loss in their last 11 away cup matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The Dutch Cup. Not a competition on my radar to be honest. The form side is clearly AZ Alkmaar. Feyenoord are in woeful form, albeit a rare win last match v Utrecht.
  • A match to have AZ on your side? They are the form side and have only 2 losses in 22 Cup matches.
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8pm - Granville v Marseille - 1.21 away

Standout Stats

  • This is the Coupe De France and Granville are a CFA 2 Ligue club, many tiers lower than French Ligue 1.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets for Marseille in 2016 Coupe de France matches.
  • 2 consecutive 2-0 wins v Montpellier and Trelissac for Marseille.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Not a match to get too carried away with. Marseille do seem to be up for the cup if latest results are anything to go by and are expected to win with relative ease today. A 2015 match away to Grenoble foot 38 ended in a 3-3 draw after extra time so remember this is the cup.
  • I would plump for a professional 0-2  win for starters.
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8pm - Rayo Vallecano v Barcelona - 1.5 Away MOTD - Barcelona really should simply outscore Ray but note this Rayo tend to score 2 goals, albeit mostly away from the top 3 in the league.

Standout Stats

  • 10 consecutive Barcelona head to head wins. 5-6 goals scored in the last 2.
  • This is 16th v 1st in the Spanish La Liga.

Rayo Vallecano

  • A cracking 2-2 correct score last time out. That makes 6 2-2 scorelines in their last 9 matches.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in 8 of their last 9.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • The fact remains that Rayo have only 1 win home or away v the top 13 teams.
  • 73% over 2.5 goals at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.

Barcelona

  • 9 consecutive wins.
  • No defeat in 19.
  • 2-2-2-3-1-2-3-3-2 goals scored before halftime in total in recent matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away but note what I wrote above!

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score. Both sides' recent matches have tended to 2+ goals before halftime.
  • Rayo's perforamances v top 3 are terrible. They conceded 10 goals in just one match.
  • A fine chance for Barcelona to win today, and we should see over 2.5 goals with ease.
  • There is a chance Barcelona could concede and score given that recent Rayo scoring record!
  • 1-2 or 1-3 possible scorelines for me today. Note how Barcelona keep scoring and conceding.
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