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Short and sweet today. The matches are readable enough.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Liverpool v Sheffield United - 1.29 Liverpool

  • Match outcome: Liverpool have won 10/10 home matches against top-half teams and they have had W/W double results in 11/12 home matches. Sheffield Utd have conceded first in 6/10 away matches.

Liverpool

  • Even VAR is on Liverpool's side. Wolves had a perfectly reasonable goal scrubbed. That would have made it 1-1 last match.
  • All wins bar a draw this season.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime all season.
  • 10 consecutive wins and 10 consecutive home wins.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Led at halftime in 9/10 at home.
  • 0-1 win v Sheff Utd earlier this season.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 2 at home.
  • 18 of 27 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Sheffield United

  • 3 wins, a draw, and a loss (v Man City) recently.
  • Noticeably not beaten a top 7 side home or away.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Liverpool have tended to score before halftime. Will that continue v a very defensive Sheffield United? We do expect an eventual Reds win. Make sure the 3 Musketeers are up front (Mane, Salah, Firmino) as they tend to make the difference. Sheffield United at their best may keep this to 0-0 for a while. Remember in the last head to head, it was a goal-keeping error which gifted Liverpool the win.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Derby v Barnsley - 2.38 Derby

  • Match outcome: Derby have won 7/8 home matches against bottom-six teams while Barnsley have lost 4/5 away matches against bottom-half teams. Derby have had W/W double results in 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Derby - 17th

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches came last match at home.
  • Only 1 loss in 10 matches at home though is impressive.
  • Conceded last 8 matches and last 4 at home.
  • 100% wins at home v 16th and lower, scoring 2+ goals in all bar 1.

Barnsley - 22nd

  • Unbeaten in 5, albeit 3 draws.
  • Only 1 away win came v the team that beat Derby at home recently (Millwall).
  • Unbeaten in 2 away.
  • Scored and conceded in 15 of their last 17 matches.
  • 42% 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Derby tend to beat teams 16th and lower, scoring 2+ goals.
  • Barnsley through a potential niggler. They beat Millwall recently and are unbeaten in 2 away. They have scored and conceded in 15/17 matches recently. On the seasonal form we lay Barnsley if they score in the hope Derby continue their 2 goal haul v 16th and lower. BUT then what of this 2 match unbeaten run away?

19:45 - Swansea v Charlton - 1.62 Swansea

  • 1st goal: Swansea have scored first in 7/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while Charlton have conceded first in 7/11 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 9/12 Charlton away matches.

Swansea - 9th

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 3 at home.
  • Only 2 losses (home) home and away v 6th and lower suggests losses only really come v the top 5.
  • 8 goals scored at home within 61st to 75th minute. That might be a result of 60th minute subs? Interesting stat.

Charlton - 19th

  • Only 1 win in 13 matches came home match. 2 goals conceded now last 4 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in 8 of their last 9 away matches.
  • Conceded last 13 matches and last 9 away.
  • Only wins away v 13th and 14th.
  • 12 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Swans are in good ultra recent form. Charlton....well only 1 win in 13 matches and conceding 2 goals in each of their last 4 matches.
  • I would favour the Swans today given they have only 2 losses v 6th and lower in such a high volume of matches.
  • Note Charlton concede far higher % 2nd half.