Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

DRT Daily Research Bulletin, April 1, 2015

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

  • Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

  • Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

  • Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

  • Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds)

  • Lay the underdog  scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market , especially in BANKER matches.

A very quiet day but Friday heralds the return to some kind of normality.

The one match I had down as a banker yesterday, saw 1.17 shots Kickers score before halftime as expected, so laying 0-0 halftime score was a success. They also won to nil which was hinted at . Not info you can trade as such but there are "to nil" markets available.

2pm - Viborg v HB Koge  - 1.51 home

Standout Stats

  • Draw, Koge home win, Viborg away win , both teams scoring in their last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 7th in the danish top division

Viborg

  • No defeat in 11 at home.
  • 2 match home winning streak
  • 5 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Scored in there last 9 matches.
  • Only 27% over 2.5 goals at home
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 home matches. Those 4 clean sheets saw 2-0 and 3-0 wins.
  • Only 1 0-0
  • 11 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Only conceded 1 goal at home in the 2nd half.

Koge

  • 3 consecutive clean sheets
  • No defeat in 5 matches and in 3 away
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away
  • 20% over 2.5 goals away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • What immediately strikes me is the less than 28% over 2.5 goals for both sides home and away. If this continues, and Viborg's odds are accurate, then a win will see a 1-0 or 2-0. Indeed 4 of Viborg's last 5 home matches were 2-0 or 3-0 wins.
  • Koge have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 away. When they did score , they beat Horsens 1-2.
  • I would not lay 0-0 halftime score given the poor over 2.5 goals stats and I will speculate on a 2-0, 3-0 scoreline to have an interest in an league I would not normally entertain if this was anything but the aftermath of an International Break.
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16:00 UK Ascoli v PRO Piacenza - 1.36 home (from www.willhill.com)

Standout Stats

  • This is a Liga Pro Girone B match and I am afraid I am not going to research it, even with the small number of fixtures today. Likely the market will be illiquid.
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16:00 UK Teramo v Tuttocuoio - 1.36 home (from www.willhill.com)

Standout Stats

  • As above, this is Liga Pro Girone B and I am leaving it alone.
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7:45pm - Maritimo v Porto  - 1.57 away

Standout Stats

  • This is a taca de liga match, hence the 1.57 odds for the away side ( I would have expected shorter if this was a league match).
  • Maritimo at home love welcoming Porto. 1-1, 1-0, 1-0 in the last 3 home head to heads is very interesting.

Maritimo

  • Only 2 wins in their last 8 matches in all competitions.
  • No draw in 7 at home saw 3 losses in their last 4 home matches.
  • Lost to Porto in the Taca de liga in January 2014
  • A draw and 2 wins since, wins v Covilha and Gil Vicente.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 home Taca de liga matches. 2 0-0's and a 2-1 home win.

Porto

  • Only 2 losses in 29 matches, one was a 1-0 loss to Maritimo
  • 8 clean sheets in their last 10 matches, 2 were 1-1.
  • Only 1 loss in 24 away matches was against Maritimo.
  • Only 2 losses in 19 Taca de liga matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 Taca matches, which flies in the face of recent clean sheetery.
  • Since 2011, only Benfica ( twice) and Braga have beaten Porto away in the Taca

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • These are the kinds of puzzles I tend to walk away from. Maritimo tend not to lose to Porto at home, and are the only side to have beaten them in 24 away matches.
  • Porto though have only 2 losses in 29, 1 in 24 so it does look an anomoly but for the fact that Maritimo's last 3 head to heads at home were 1-1, 1-0, 1-0.
  • If Maritimo score first, therefore, lay them but cover the 1-0 if the odds are big enough.