Token research today. There are one or two solid angles and I personally will hone in on those. As you know, in-play stats are the best way to play the Europa League. Do remember to tread warily with any dead rubber matches. I'll do a video at DRT Facebook.
15:50 - FC Astana v Man Utd - 1.47 Man Utd
- 4th v 1st. Astana are the whipping boys in Group L.
- 1-0 Man Utd win the last time these 2 met.
- United domestically are now scoring 3 goals and this new found attacking attitude may bring a better-than-0-1 result today. AZ scored 11 goals in 2 against Astana. Watch out for an over-reaction defensively.
FK Krasnodar v FC Basel - 1.88 FK Krasnador
- Group C sees Basel top after 4 matches and Krasnador joint 2nd on 6 points.
- 2 matches remain so it's getting more important for the team on 6 points to take the 3 points off top side Basel.
- Basel beat Krasnador 5-0 at home. Krasnador beat Trabzonspor in 2 consecutive matches.
- 5-2-1-2 goals scored by Basel who have impressed and are unbeaten.
- Is the market chalking up Krasnador as favourite because of the need to win? Basel's win v Krasnador was emphatic.
Trabzonspor v Getafe - 1.7 Getafe
- Group C sees Trabzonspor bottom of Group C and Getafe 2nd on 6 points to Basel (10 points).
- As above, the team with 6 points (Getafe) needs the win.
- Trab have 3 losses and a 2-2 draw v Basel in 4 matches.
- Trab at home have conceded 2 goals in 2 home matches.
- Getafe have only lost to Basel.
- As with Krasnador, a must win really for Getafe today. Trab are realistically, although not mathematically, out of it.
17:55 - AZ Alkmaar v Partizan Belgrade - 1.6 AZ Alkmaar
- Group L sees Man Utd on 10 points, AZ 2nd on 8 points and Partizan 3rd on 4 points.
- Must win for Partizan as there are only 2 matches remaining.
- 2-2 v Partizan in an earlier head to head but that was clouded by an AZ red card. Only 1 win for Partizan came v Astana.
- AZ look primed to get a win today if 11 v 11.
Basaksehir v Roma - 2.02 Roma
- Group J sees 1st v 3rd and it is a wide open group.
- 4-0 Roma win v Basaksehir the last time these 2 met. Basaksehir beat Wolfsberger.
- Roma have scored and conceded in their last 3 matches, 2 draws and a win.
- 1-1 and 2-1 away sees Roma struggling v the likes of Wolfsberger.
- Head to heads were emphatic for Roma. Enough to stick with them today?
Besiktas v Slovan Bratislava - 2.3 Besiktas
- Group K sees Slovan on 4 points and Besiktas on no points. There is an outside chance that Besiktas can qualify. Highly unlikely but still mathematically possible. They must win today though.
- All defeats for Besiktas. 4-2 Slovan win last time these 2 met. The Besiktas goals were penalties and an own goal.
- Slovan's only losses came v Wolves.
- On the head to head, and need, Slovan must eye the win surely?
Braga v Wolves - 1.66 Braga
- Group K sees Braga top on 10 points, Wolves 2nd on 9 points, Slovan 3rd on 4 points and Besiktas bottom on 4 points.
- 2 matches remain so it's not all finished yet for Wolves.
- 0-1 Braga win at Wolves will have Wolves slightly concerned here. And the market is firmly on their side. The Portuguese connection for Wolves I thought would be a tick in their box.
- Braga have 3 wins and a draw. They scored and conceded in their last 3 matches.
- The loss to Braga was the only loss for Wolves. 3 consecutive defence led wins, 2 were 1-0.
- I personally am not sure why Braga are so short in the odds.
- Wolves have had 2 90th minute 1-0 wins so that is something to remember if 0-0 late on.
- I would lay Braga if Braga scored first and take out 1-0 insurance. Wolves defence looks good.
CSKA Moscow v Ludogorets - 2.12 CSKA Moscow
- Group H sees Ludogorets 2nd on 6 points and CSKA on 1 point. Simply, if Ludogorets win or draw, they end any thoughts CSKA had of progressing in a top 2 spot.
- CSKA Moscow failed to score in 3/4 matches.
- 5-1 Ludogorets home win last time these 2 met.
- Ludogorets only losses came v Espanyol.
- On head to head form, Ludogorets have the head to head win to suggest they can get a result here, despite the market somehow putting CSKA up as favourite. Ludogorets must take advantage of the match below where their rivals for 2nd play top side Espanyol.
Ferencvaros v Espanyol - 2.64 Espanyol
- Group H sees Espanyol top on 10 points. A win ensures a top 2 spot for Espanyol.
- Ferencvaros and Ludogorets realistically will fight out 2nd spot.
- 1-1 the last time these 2 met. The Ferencvaros goal was an own goal.
- 1-0-1-0 goals scored by Ferencvaros.
- Superb run for Espanyol. with that draw v Ferencvaros, and 3 wins to nil.
- The market cannot split these 2 sides I suppose because needs must for Ferencvaros but on the form, albeit only 4 matches, we see Espanyol have the better form.
Feyenoord v Rangers - 2.56 Feyenoord
- Group G sees 3rd and 2nd here in a wide-open group. If Rangers win tonight they have one foot in qualification as they will ensure Feyenoord are not able to eclipse them in these 2 remaining matches.
- Feyenoord are a side we know who have trouble domestically holding on to leads. And this Rangers has a resilient look to them.
- Feyenoord lost away to Rangers and Young Boys but beat Porto at home and draw 1-1 at home v Young Boys.
- 2-1 loss v Young Boys and 1-1 draw away v Porto for Rangers. Scoring but not winning.
- I personally could see a 1-1 today and would be keen to lay Feyenoord if they scored first.
Oleksandria v Wolfsburg - 1.65 Wolfsburg
- Group I sees 4th v 2nd.
- All is not over for Oleksandria with 2 matches remaining.
- Both teams have scored in Olek matches.3-1 loss to Wolfsburg. 3 consecutive score draws followed.
- All opponents have scored first in Olek Europa League matches.
- Both teams have scored in all Wolf Europa League matches.
- They beat Olek, drew with St Etienne and Gent and lost at home to Gent.
- This Group I is wide open....at the moment. Olek's slim hopes of qualification depends on beating the Wolf today.
- I could see both teams score but the Wolf not lose. Although I must say that home loss v Gent was poor.
St Etienne v Gent - 2.44 St Etienne
- Group I is wide open. 2 matches remain and any of the 4 could qualify top 2.
- The advantage is with top side Gent.
- Both teams have scored in St Etienne's 4 matches without them winning. A loss 3-2 v Gent and 3 score draws.
- St Etienne have scored first in their 2 home matches.
- Both teams have scored in Gent's matches without a loss. 1-1 and 1-3 away for Gent.
- We could see both teams score today and the form is with Gent not losing.
- They have the better form. But remember it is must win for St Etienne to take points off top of the group.
Wolfsberger AC v Mgladbach - 1.81 Mgladbach
- The other 2 sides in Roma's group.
- Mgladbach strangely lost at home to Wolfsberger 0-4 which was a huge surprise as the Austrian Bundesliga lacks the depth of the German Bundesliga.
- 2 draws and a win followed, with both teams scoring.
- Wolfs only win was v Mgladbach.
- What do we make of that head to head which looks anomolous? The market seems to agree, inserting Mgladbach as favourites here. Remember this group is wide open. Both teams to score is a recent Mgladbach pattern we may see.
Young Boys v Porto - 2.6 Porto
- All Hail the Young Boys. They top Group G with Rangers, and with Feyenoord and Porto only 3 points shy, this is another wide open group.
- Porto beat the Young Boys 2-1, a YB who only scored via a penalty. Since then YB at home beat Rangers and Feyenoord and I think will be very competitive today.
- Porto have lost 2-0 away v teams that YB beat at home.
- The market is non committal but I'd have a sneaky play on a 2-0, 2-1 for the Mighty Young Boys (All Hail the Young Boys!).
20:00 - Arsenal v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.00 Arsenal
- 3 horse race in Group F. A win today should ensure a top 2 place for Arsenal.
- 3 wins and a draw for Arsenal. 0-3 away at Frankfurt was emphatic.
- 2 goals though were scored post Frankfurt red card.
- Frankfurt's 2 losses came v Arsenal and Standard Liege.0-1 and 2-1 away for Frankfurt.
- The head to head was emphatic. A win ensures a top 2 spot for Arsenal.
Celtic v Rennes - 1.63 Celtic
- Group E sees top v bottom. With 2 matches remaining, Celtic cannot be ousted from a top 2 finish.
- This is a dead rubber for Celtic.
- It was 1-1 at Rennes earlier in the campaign.
F91 Dudelange v APOEL - 1.86 APOEL
- Group A sees 4th v 2nd.
- Sevilla have qualified but a 2nd spot is wide open here.
- An outstanding 3-4 F91 win against the odds last time these 2 met saw a great trade. F91 were 0-2 up and APOEL made it 3-2 before losing.
- 3-4-3-5 goals conceded by F91.
- 3-0-2-2 goals scored by APOEL.
- I think we might see APOEL exact revenge over F91 today. A consistent set of 2+ goal matches for them.
Guimaraes v Standard - 2.38 Guimaraes
- 3 losses and a draw for Guimaraes who lost 2-0 to Standard.
- 0-1 and 1-1 at home for Guimaraes. Keeping it tight at home?
- This is a 3 horse race between top side Arsenal (10 points), Standard (6 points), Frankfurt (6 points), Guimaraes (1 point).
- Guimaraes are not out of it but must win their remaining 2 matches and hope that other results go their way.
- Standard lost away to Arsenal and Frankfurt.
- Guimaraes keep it tight at home so note that but will they fail to score a 2nd goal again? That may leave them vulnerable.
Lazio v CFR Cluj - 1.51 Lazio
- Lazio must beat Cluj here with only 2 matches remaining. Celtic are on 10 points, Cluj are on 9 points, and Lazio are on 3 points.
- 4/4 2-1 results for Lazio. 3 losses alas and a 2-1 loss away v Cluj.
- 3 wins and a loss v Celtic for Cluj. 2 consecutive 1-0 wins. Cluj.
- Must wins tend to win.....right? Lazio are out if they do not win.But Cluj are not too shabby.
Lugano v FC Copenhagen - 2.56 FC Copenhagen
- Group B sees a very tight group. 6-6-5-2 points for 1st to 4th. Lugano are on 2 points, Copenhagen on 6 points.
- This is a must win therefore for Lugano (and arguably for both sides).
- Lugano are yet to win. 2 0-0's at home.
- 1-0 loss to Copenhagen.
- 1-0 win and 3 1-1 draws for Copenhagen. It screams out to lay Lugano in particular, if they score first and cover the 1-0. Copenhagen have scored in all 4 matches, albeit just one goal.
- You may want to back 0-0 pre match.
Malmo FF v Dynamo Kiev - 2.66 Dynamo Kiev
- The other 2 in Group B. Must win for both sides in such a tight group.
- 1-0 win v Malmo and 3 draws for Kiev.
- 1-1 and 2-1 win for Malmo at home.
- Both Group B matches see favourites at 2.5 or higher. Typical of too-tough-to-call matches.
Rosenborg v LASK Linz - 1.8 LASK Linz
- Rosenborg are out of this competition. Group D is a 3 horse race. LASK Linz by default for me in a match in which they must win and remember, the other 2 in the 2 horse race are playing each other.
- 1-0 LASK win the last time these 2 met.
- 2-1 loss v Sporting and 0-0 v PSV away for Lask Linz. I would look to must wins tending to win and look for a good performance from the away side.
Sevilla v Qarabag FK - 1.44 Sevilla
- 4/4 wins for Sevilla.
- 0-3 Sevilla away win suggests this should be matched with home advantage.
- A dead rubber I think this match for Sevilla which may be the reason why they are 1.44 and not shorter.
Sporting Lisbon v PSV - 2.44 Sporting Lisbon
- Group D sees Sporting top, with PSV 3rd. 3 horse race in this group so a win today could be definitive with 2 matches remaining.
- 3-2 PSV the last time these 2 sides met. PSV domestically have been poor goal scorers.
- 2-2-1-2 goals scored by Sporting.
- PSV beat Sporting and Rosenborg 3-2 and 1-4. Emphatic. A draw and a loss after that.
- Both sides look as if they score 2+ goals. On PSV's current poor form, I would tentatively look to Sporting to get a positive result. i.e. not lose.