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A quieter day today. Matches to focus on? Milan for me should be eyeing the win v Empoli. Spanish La Liga is too tough. We saw yesterday the big 2 lose. Something in the air? Benfica should beat Chaves. AIK should get back on track today. Their single loss came last away match.

ITALIAN SERIA A

18:00 - SPAL v Sassuolo - 2.68 SPAL

  • The market cannot split these 2.
  • 0-1 Sassuolo and 1-1 last 2 head to heads. Defences on top.
  • No draw for SPAL. 3 wins to nil and 2 defeats to nil came away.
  • Sassuolo's 3 wins came at home.Sole loss v Juventus. Both teams scored in the last 4 matches.
  • No wonder the market has given up. Will we see the SPAL clean sheets or both teams scoring as per Sassuolo? 2-5-1-3 goals scored by Sassuolo this season suggests they may edge it today.

20:00 - Empoli v Milan - 1.74 Milan

  • No head to heads since April 2017
  • Only 1 win for Empoli came in their first match. 3 losses and a 0-0 last 4 matches for Empoli. Failed to score in 2 of their last 3 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Draw, Draw for Milan. Both teams have scored. Milan have led in 3 matches and only won one. Problems holding onto a lead.
  • This should be an easier assignment for AC Milan.

SPANISH LA LIGA

A tough Spanish La Liga coupon if judged by the odds for the 'favourite'.

19:00 - Alaves v Getafe - 2.8 Alaves

  • A loss to Barcelona began Alaves season. Since then, a draw and 3 wins.0-0 and 2-1 at home.
  • 2-0 and 0-2 for Getafe. The loss was v Real Madrid.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 for Getafe. Getafe have only lost to the 2 Madrid sides. Alaves have only lost to Barcelona. A feeling therefore that both sides will be eyeing 3 points v apparent 'lesser' opponents.

19:00 -  Real Valladolid v Levante - 2.2 Valladolid

  • These 2 last met in the Segunda Liga.
  • No win for Valladolid. Failed to score in their first 4 matches.
  • Scored last match but that was a 3-3.
  • A win began Levante's season, then 3 losses and a 2-2.
  • Not a match which interests. Valladolid now found their scoring boots but will that continue? Levante are poor as well.

21:00 - Girona v Betis - 2.56 Girona

  • 2.56 the favourite. I told you this was a tough Spanish coupon.
  • 2-2 and 0-1 Betis in the La Liga head to heads.
  • Both teams have the single loss. Girona v Real Madrid and Betis v Levante.
  • 3-2 and 2-2 Girona last 2 matches. 2-2 v 10 man Barcelona.
  • 3 draws, 2 0-0, and a 1-0 win for Girona.
  • Again, alas, conflicting patterns.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMEIRA LIGA

20:15 - Chaves v Benfica - 1.41 Benfica

  • Benfica tend to win head to heads comfortably.
  • With Chaves already losing to Porto and Braga (who make up 2 of the Fantastic 4 of Porto, Braga, Sporting Lisbon, and Benfica), a feeling the Chavs will lose today. They lost without scoring too.
  • 4 wins for Benfica, scoring 2 goals at least. Only draw was v another of the Fantastic 4, Sporting Lisbon, in a local derby.
  • Expect 2/3/4 goals from Benfica in what is traditionally a comfortable win night for them.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

18:00 - IFK Goteborg v AIK -  1.73 AIK

  • After 3 consecutive home wins in head to heads for IFK, AIK have won the last 2 head to heads.

IFK (12th)

  • Only 3 wins in 15 matches came at home.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 home matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats home and away v the top 3.
  • 95% over 1.5 goals.

AIK (1st)

  • Tough to go through the season unbeaten. AIK lost their 2nd to last match. That came away.
  • That was one of only 2 matches in which AIK failed to score.
  • No draw in 10 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away, only 1 0-0 at fulltime away.
  • 100% wins v 12th and lower.
  • 11 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • AIK should not add to their single defeat. IFK have a losing record v the top 3. They have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 home matches though, but will that continue v top of the league?
  • AIK do a lot of their scoring away from home in the second half. IF they have not scored by the 2nd half, fear not. I would expect AIK to score 2nd half.
  • On season form, AIK should win as they do v 12th and lower.

18:00 - Kalmar v Hacken - 2.38 Hacken

  • Hacken have won the last 3 head to heads.

Kalmar (10th)

  • Only 3 wins since 18th May 2018.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 10 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 all season.
  • Draw v 3rd and 5th, win v 4th at home. Play 6th today.

Hacken (6th)

  • 6 wins and a loss last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No draw in 9 away matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Only 3 away wins v 7th, 9th and 16th.

Conclusions

  • On recent form, it seems clear cut here. Hacken are in winning mood. Kalmar have had only 3 wins since 18th May!
  • But the waters are muddied as Kalmar are unbeaten at home v the top 5, and Hacken have only 3 away wins.
  • I would lay any late 0-0.
  • I would personally side with Hacken's recent form given Kalmar have failed to score in 7 of their last 10 matches. IF Kalmar score first, lay them as they have been so poor in front of goal that they may not follow up with a 2nd goal.