In Iight of yesterday's extremeIy cautious dispIays in the Premiership, have managers suddenIy switched to prioritising defending and nicking a 1-0? For goodness sake, we nearIy had a 0-0 in a Leicester match!! So deIay today and see how the games pan out. I do Iike seeing strong odds on favourites who Iook worthy favourites (in Spain today). The hope of course is that the underdog pIays baII and scores first or that we get a concerted period of 0-0 (I hope you Iayed the be-jeezus out of the 0-0 in the ArsenaI v Leicester match 2nd haIf?)
I have to mention the PSG game. 1.34 pre match. 1.18 odds at the off. I hinted at a much-changed Monaco. Watch out for this next time. You can make a profit by backing the Match Odds before team news is confirmed and Iay off once the much anticipated team changes take pIace!
18:30 - Alaves v Eibar - 2.74 Alaves
- It is turning into a day to take off! We have 2 mediocre Spanish sides and a favourite at odds of 2.74 - the market cannot even split these 2.
- 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
- This is 11th v 8th in the Spanish La Liga.
- 3 consecutive defeats ended with 2 unbeaten matches.
- 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
- Only 4 defeats at home.
- Only scored 2 goals once at home v 9th and higher.
- 12 goals conceded at home in the last 1/2 hour of matches.
- 2 consecutive defeats.
- No 0-0 away.
- v 7th-12th away, Eibar are unbeaten scoring 2-2-2-4 goals but then v 13th-16th inclusive, they lost all matches.
- Lay any late 0-0.
- And that is it. Not for me!
19:30 - Sevilla v Celta Vigo - 1.39 Sevilla
- 0-3 Sevilla in the last head to head.
- This is 4th v 10th in the Spanish Primera Division.
- 5 matches remain. Atl Madrid lose to Villareal. Sevilla must respond with a win to make Madrid sweat in 3rd.
- Top 6 possible but unlikely for Celta.
Sevilla 100% stats
- Unbeaten outside of the top 2 at home.
- Not lost to nil at home.
Sevilla other stats
- Only defeats since 5th Feb away to Atl Madrid and Barcelona.
- No defeat in 10 at home.
Celta Vigo 100% stats
Celta Vigo other stats
- No draw in 8.
- 20 of 29 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- Expect 100% effort from Sevilla in light of Atl Madrid's loss to Villareal. A solid home record should continue today so lay Celta if Celta score first.
- Note Celta tend to concede mostly 2nd half so if keeping a first half clean sheet, they will be vulnerable.
- Sevilla have not lost to nil at home so that backs the above up.
20:00 - Man City v Man Utd - 1.93 Man City
- 1-2 Man City in the last Premier League match.
- This is 4th v 5th in the Premiership - these 2 sides are favourite for a top 3 spot with 2 games in hand over Liverpool.
- No major research as this is a Manchester Derby and a match of great importance.
Man City stats
- 2-1-3-3 goals scored recently.
- 0-0, 1-1, 3-1 last 3 home matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at home.
- 73% of halftime home scores either 0-0 or 1-0.
- Only lost to 1st at home.score draws re the rest of the top 6.
- 94% over 1.5 goals.
- No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.
- 13 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Man Utd stats
- Unbeaten in 23 matches and 10 away scoring in those 10.
- 4 consecutive away wins.
- Loss, draw, draw away v top 6.
- I know some DRT members love to trade these matches but I cannot find the very strong angles. These matches tend to be one-off tactical affairs. There is a derby factor, a Champions League spot factor.
- Going strictly on form, 94% over 1.5 goals for City suggests we may see 2 goals at least. City are highly likely to score 2nd half if not conceding by halftime.
- United are on an excellent run but have not beaten a top 6 side away.
- Make of those what you will. I tend to bow out of this high profile matches.
20:30 - Ath Bilbao v Betis - 1.39 Ath Bilbao
- 1-0 Betis in the last head to head.
- This is 6th v 15th in Spanish Primera Liga.
Ath Bilbao 100% stats
- Unbeaten outside the top 2 at home.
- Scored and conceded at home v 16th and lower.
Ath Bilbao other stats
- 6 wins in their last 7 home matches. Only 1-2 v Real Madrid spoilt that run. Good form!
- No draw in 14 because they have been basically winning at home and losing away.
- Only 1 0-0 at home.
- 15 goals scored at home in the half hour after halftime.
Betis 100% stats
- No away 0-0.
- Lost all aways v top 9 teams.
- No draw away v teams above them in the league.
Betis other stats
- 2 consecutive wins but only 4 wins since 14th January.
- Scored 2 away v Barcelona, but then Barca scored 6. Failed to score 2 v other top 10 teams away.
- 12 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- This looks rather clear cut on form. Ath Bilbao have a reasonable target to aim form, meet an away team losing away v top 9 teams and generally unable to score that 2nd goal.
- Bilbaos excellent home win record was blunted by Real Madrid who had to work for it.
- Expect a home win, and react if anything else. If 0-0 at halftime fear not, Bilbao have a very strong scoring record at the beginning of second halves at home.