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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 26, 2015

These friendlies are very DRT friendly it would seem, IF you took the side of the market leader.

Cameroon scored a single goal in a 0-1 win v Indonesia.

Swaziland were never going to beat South Africa were they? And it was highly unlikely to end 0-0 - the match was 0-0 at halftime. Therein is your first angle . South Africa scored 2 quick goals early 2nd half and went on to win 1-3 , to repeat their recent goal tally v this lot.

Scotland's record recently is eye-catchingly good and I really could not see a poor Northern Ireland landing a blow.The match was 0-0 until the 85th minute. Scotland were available to back at odds of 6.4  - I know , I was staring at these odds, drooling a little, when the market suspended. I missed the opportunity alas.

1-0 it ended.

Germany and Australia was a cracker. Australia took a 2nd half 1-2 lead. They were never going to win....in Kaiserslautern... were they? Indeed not. Podolski saved Germany's blushes.

So some interesting trading angles yesterday if you favoured the favourite.

12pm - Thailand v Singapore  - 1.58 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-0, 1-0, 0-0, 1-0 head to heads when these 2 meet in Thailand.
  • Only 1 win for Singapore in the last 6 head to heads.
  • This is not a match to research heavily. As with yesterday's friendlies, you are either with the market leader ( Thailand) or you are not.
  • Back 0-0 pre-match incase this is another tight match?
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2:30pm - Oman v Malaysia  - 1.26 home

Standout Stats

  • No recent head to heads . This is another friendly with  a strong market leader.

Oman

  • No win in 6 ended with a 1-0 v Kuwait.
  • No draw in 7 home matches. 4 losses in 6 matches v the likes of Costa Rica, Uruguay, Qatar and Australia
  • Only 1 win in 6 friendlies was against Yemen
  • Recent home friendlies saw a 3-4 loss to Costa Rica, 0-3 loss to Uruguay, and 2-0 win v Yemen.

Malaysia

  • Malaysia have recently recorded wins v Singapore, Vietnam and Thailand, but also lost to Vietnam and Thailand suggesting the matches they were playing in were 2 legged affairs
  • Historically really poor travellers despite very recent consecutive wins v Singapore and Vietnam away.
  • Only 1 win in 14 friendlies was against Cambodia
  • 7 losses in their last 8 away friendlies.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 away friendlies.
  • Only 2 wins historically away in friendlies since 1999.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The market has factored in Malaysia's inability to win friendlies . It seems they use them for experimenting, so a case of going with the market as we did yesterday and looking for a long drawn-out 0-0 to lay perhaps.
  • If Malaysia score first, lay them.
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5pm - England U19 v Denmark U19  - 1.65 home

Standout Stats

  • This is a competitive fixture , so from that perspective, it may be worth a cursory glance.
  • England U19 have only had one loss since May 2011 which is superb stuff if accurate.
  • 9 wins in their last 11 matches.
  • England have beaten the likes of Belgium and Italy lately which is good form
  • 7 consecutive home wins for England u19 saw them keep 5 clean sheets
  • England u19 have not lost a home match since May 2011
  • As to Denmark u19, they have not had a draw since 2012 and whose recent wins came against Lithuania, Albania and Wales u19.
  • No draw for Denmark in any away match, losing 3 of their last 4.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • If the Danish nippers keep avoiding the draw, then our choice is clear. Home win or away win. The market hints at its most likeliest outcome and in Engand u19 we have a team in solid form against a Danish side whose recent victories have been against teams who are not quite the world's best at this level.
  • I'll favour England u19 here and lay the danes if they score first.
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5pm - Bahrain v Colombia  - 1.19 away

Standout Stats

  • Bahrain's recent wins have come against Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Bahrain.
  • They recently lost 1-2 at home to UAE
  • Bahrain are unbeaten in their last 9 friendlies but the fact is that the teams played are not the same as Colombia quality wise. Bahrain's recent friendly wins v Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait.
  • 9 wins in 11 matches for Colombia. They lost 2 matches v Brazil! And Bahrain ain't Brazil!
  • For me, World Cup wins v Japan, and Uruguay were eyecatching. A recent 1-2 win v decent enough yardstick USA suggests Bahrain will not land a blow.
  • Only 1 loss for Colombia in 17 friendlies was against Brazil

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • If playing their full side, Colombia must have a superb chance of a win here. DRT wise, we noted yesterday that in all of the friendlies the first goal took a while in coming  from the market leaders. Perhaps this is an angle here. If we have a concerted period of 0-0, keep faith in the market leader scoring eventually?
  • Colombia are not prolific in friendlies. Only once since 2007 in away friendlies have they scored more than 2 goals, so today might see a functional win, 0-2 or something like that?
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5pm - Ivory Coast v Angola  - 1.48 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-0 to the Ivorians in the most recent head to heads.
  • This is another international friendly. I would be more confident were this a competitive match.

Ivory Coast

  • Unbeaten in 6 matches.
  • Only lost 2 matches at home since 2011 against Nigeria and Congo.
  • Only 2 wins in 10 friendlies were away to El Salvador and Nigeria.
  • 4 wins and a 0-0 in their last 5 home friendlies. The last home friendly was in 2013.

Angola

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • 5 draws and a 1-0 loss in their last 6 aways
  • Only 1 loss in 19 matches in friendlies  - not sure how to quantify the teams against Ivory Coast.
  • 4 draws in 5 away friendlies

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Another match which does not really appeal. The ivorians have a poor recent friendly record, albeit all away. At home they are far better although we don't have any post 2013 form to work with.
  • Add to this the fact that angola have only 1 loss in 19 friendlies, and this makes it tough to trust Ivory Coast if they concede first.
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6pm - Lyngby v Bronshoj  - 1.51 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-3 Bronshoj and 1-1 Lyngby in the 2 2014 head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 12th in the Danish 2nd division. Lyngby go within 2 points of top spot with a win today. A win for Bronshoj takes them temporarily outside of the relegation zone.

Lyngby

  • No draw in 7 home matches
  • Conceded in their last 5 matches
  • No win in 3 matches, losing 2 of them 1-0
  • Only 1 loss at home came in their last match, that 0-1
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home
  • Scored 9 goals in each half at home
  • Scored first in 7 of 10 home matches.

Bronshoj

  • 4 match losing streak
  • No win in 7 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 5 matches
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 5 aways.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Head to heads are inconclusive and not much for us to work with here. Both teams would love 3 points. Bronshoj have the poorer form, no win in 7. Is that enough to oppose them, considering they did win 0-3 in 2014!
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7pm - Iran v Chile  - 1.48 away

Standout Stats

  • This friendly is being played in St Polten, a neutral venue, so there is no home/away form to look at , so we'll have to simply take a snapshot of the teams overall.
  • Tough to weigh up Iran's form , as recently they have played the likes of Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar and UAE.
  • Iran are unbeaten in their last 6 friendlies, and the eyecatcher was a 1-0 v Korea Republic. 5 clean sheets in those 6 friendlies
  • Chile just seem to be playing a better calibre of team of late, and remember the World Cup when they beat Spain and drew with Brazil.
  • More recently in friendlies, they lost to Uruguay and beat the USA 3-2.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • There could be some defensive resistance from Iran today, but Chile have consistently been playing better teams and getting results, in some instances, against better sides. It is with the away side that I'd go today but I would not be surprised if this was 0-0 for a while if this ultra defensive Iran ( in friendlies) step up against a better quality opponent today.
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7:30pm - Spain U21 v Norway U21  - 1.2 home

Standout Stats

  • This is an under 21 friendly.
  • Spain won 3-0 in a competitive fixture in 2013.

Spain u21

  • An amazing run of 23 wins in 24 matches ended with 2 draws and 2 defeats in competitive fixtures v Austria, Serbia ( draws), Serbia ( loss) and Belgium.
  • No win in 3 at home now, scoring and conceding in all 3.
  • Only 2 friendlies in the form, a win v Germany and loss v Belgium

Norway u21

  • No draw in 12 matches in all competitions.
  • Only 3 wins in those 12 matches.
  • Recent wins v Macedonia and Azerbaijan away
  • 2 friendlies saw losses 3-0 v Croatia and 4-0 v Belgium

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Not a match which appeals, although glass half full, I'd say that Spain u21 have a 3 match winless streak to end at home. In Norway they could be the right opponents here who have conceded 7 goals in their last 2 matches, without scoring.
  • Spain u21 are obviously having troubles, albeit in a competitive environment. Will this friendly be their salvation? They have recentish form against Norway u21.
  • Optimists? Expect 3/4 goals from Spain u21 if their woes are no more.
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7:45pm - Rep of Ireland U21 v Andorra U21  - 1.03 home

Standout Stats

  • This is an under 21 Championship match so goal seekers should be thankful that the Irish are likely to have their game faces on today.
  • Ireland at this level are poor, but it is telling that wins have come largely against these minnow sides. Recent wins v Estonia u21, Hungary u21, Liechtenstein, and Faroe Islands ( oh and a recent win v Italy!)
  • Ireland tended to level off at 4/5 goals
  • Andorra have failed to score in 9 of their last 10 matches. They lost 5-0 in their last 2 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I foresee a 3-0 to 5-0 win for the Irish today. Andorra very rarely score goals.
  • As you know with odds like these, there is an expectation for a goal or 2 before halftime so lay the 0-0 halftime score particularly after 15 minutes if still 0-0.
  • If for some reason the scoreline is 0-0 at halftime, lay under 4.5 goals for the 2nd half.
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8pm - France v Brazil  - 2.68 home

Standout Stats

  • The fact that the market leader in this market is priced at 2.68 says it all really.  Brazil last won in a friendly in June 2013 3-0 and it's important to check team news. IS this a European based Brazil team , or the full Brazil team?

France

  • Only 2 losses in 22 matches in all competitions.
  • Have only conceded more than 1 goal in a match in 2 of their last 19 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 14 home matches was a 0-1 v Germany.
  • 10 clean sheets in those matches.
  • Wins against Spain and Netherlands at home catches the eye.
  • Unbeaten in 12 friendlies includes 8 clean sheets - as you'd expect when your manager is a defender.
  • 7 wins and 2 draws in their last 9 home matches.

Brazil

  • 6 consecutive wins in friendlies sees 6 clean sheets.  Last 2 defeats were in the World Cup
  • 7 consecutive away wins keeping 5 clean sheets.
  • 15 consecutive wins in friendlies keeping 12 clean sheets.
  • Interesting that when they did not win away in friendlies, matches were against big teams - 4-3 Argentina, 2-1 England, 2-2 Italy , and a shut out 1-0 Switzerland ( take note as France are also defensive.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The market hasn't got a clue and neither do I. I can build a case of either side with relative ease. Team news the key here. Is this a Europe based Brazil side? Will all of the french stars be playing?
  • Both sides have superb defences so this could be a bit of a chess match. Back 0-0 pre match despite the huge array of forward talent?
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