The Europa League dominates today and there is only really collateral form to work with (both teams have played the same two teams). I would like to live chat but alas I have to look after a relative staying here. Inconsiderate soul!
In play stats have tended to be excellent in this competition where a lot of the teams are hard to gauge against each other. www.williamhill.com; Bet365 mobile site (yes you can access it on a PC); www.totalcorner.com; www.flashscore.com and I think www.whoscored.com might dabble in in-play stats. All you need - shots on target; shots off target; corners to trade a match. Yes, corners can be key. Where do corners take place? The oppositions penalty box!
EUROPA LEAGUE (EL)
Spartak Trnava v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.75 Dinamo
- 4 matches into Spartak's EL season 0-2 win, 1-1, 1-0, 2-0 loss v Fenerbahce. 1-1 and 1-0 came at home.
- 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 wins for Dinamo Zagreb in the EL.
- 0-0, 0-0, 0-2 away for them in the EL.
- So tough to gauge these 2 sides. Rarely will they meet. Slovakia v Croatia. Can DZ keep a clean sheet?
FC Zurich v Leverkusen - 1.87 Leverkusen
- 2 1-0 wins for Zurich so far this EL campaign, a penalty and an 84th minute goal.
- 2-3 win and 4-2 win for Leverkusen v the same teams suggests to me Zurich will be lucky to nick a 1-0 as Leverkusen have 2+ goals in them.
Anderlecht v Fenerbahce - 2.34 Anderlecht
- 1-0 loss to Trnava and 0-2 loss to Dinamo Zagreb. Anderlecht not impressing and have yet to score.
- 4 consecutive clean sheets all competitions for Fenerbahce. 4-1 loss to Dinamo Zagreb and 2-0 win v Trnava.
- On collateral form, it is tough to call. Leave this to the in-play stats.
F91 Dudelange v Olympiakos - 1.6 Oly
- Olympiakos (Oly) disappointed to be in the EL so early. They should cope with Luxembourg opponents IF they have the attitude for this competition.
- 0-1 and 3-0 losses for F91 v Milan and Betis.
- 0-0 v Betis and 3-1 loss v Milan for Olympiakos.
- Slight favour here for Oly in the hope that they are up for the Europa League.
RB Leipzig v Celtic - 1.46 Leipzig
- Second time in the Europa League for Leipzig.
- 3-2-3 goals scored in recent EL matches for Leipzig.
- 4-3-3-2 goals scored at home by Leipzig in the EL.
- Zenit, Suduva and Rosenborg the only wins for Celtic this 2018. A 3-1 away loss to Red Bull Salzburg suggests the other red bullers, with an equally adequate forward line, should simply outscore Celtic. So note that. 'outscore' means we lay Celtic if Celtic scores.
Zenit St Petersburg v Bordeaux - 1.8 Zenit
- 3-1 win, 2-1 loss, 1-1 and 1-0 win in their last 4 matches for Zenit.
- I mentioned last time I researched Zenit.
- Outstanding home form in the EL, only 2 home losses since October 2002.
- 2 consecutive losses for Bordeaux in the EL v Slavia Prague and Copenhagen.
- It looks like we side with Zenit not to lose today? What an astounding record at home. 1-0 last match was workman-like.
AEK Larnaca v Ludogorets - 2.58 Ludogorets
- I will take the hint here and work via the in-play stats. 2.58 the favourite in a match featuring Cyprus v Hungary.
Qarabag FK v Vorskla - 1.7 Qarabag
- This match is hard to weigh up. Qarabag were always going to lose to Sporting Lisbon and Arsenal.
- Ditto Vorskla 4-2 loss to Arsenal and 1-2 loss to Sporting Lisbon.
- With Vorskla actually scoring v the big 2 in defeat, where Qarabag could not, I would favour the away side not to lose.
AC Milan v Betis - 2.06 AC Milan
- Losses to Arsenal last EL gave me the impression that Milan did not want to be there. But so far this year, wins v F91 and Olympiakos.
- 4 clean sheets in 5 in the EL for Betis. This will naturally be a step up for Milan. They were poor in a 0-1 win v F91 and I think they are vulnerable today.
Sporting Lisbon v Arsenal - 2.12 Arsenal
- 'Dick' Emery has Arsenal purring but what is his attitude to this lesser competition?
- For me, new managers want to impress regardless of competition. This may work in our favour.
- 3 consecutive wins for Sporting in the EL came v Atl Madrid (who take the competition seriously), Qarabag and Vorskla.
- 3 consecutive home wins to nil.
- https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1328539/Preview/Europe-UEFA-Europa-League-2018-2019-Sporting-CP-Arsenal presents the probable Arsenal line-up and it is changed.
- 10 consecutive wins in all competitions for the Arsenal.4-2 v Vorskla and 0-3 v Qarabag.
- Both sides managed 2+ goals v the 2 sides so far. I am with Arsenal not to lose today. They look full of confidence. Although I would love to see Ozil, lacazette and Aubameyang playing together, the side likely to be put out is the same as the last away match where Arsenal scored 3 goals.
Red Bull Salzburg v Rosenborg - 1.2 Red Bull
- 2-3 win v Leipzig and 3-1 win v Celtic sees RB in solid form in the EL. A case of the Keegans 'we'll score one more than you'.
- A Celtic red card at 2-1 turned it into 3-1 with a penalty so there is a question mark as to whether Celtic, with 11 men and a 1 goal difference, could have made it 2-2. We'll never know of course.
- 1-0 loss to Celtic and 1-3 loss to Leipzig for Rosenborg. On collateral form, the market is spot on. 2/3+ goals expected of Salzburg today. They may concede but will likely outscore their opponents.
FC Copenhagen v Slavia Prague - 2.56 FC Copenhagen
- Apologies but in a competition such as this, when I see 2.56 the favourite, it tells me not to bother researching.
- Let the in-play stats do the work for you.
Chelsea v BATE Borisov - 1.15 Chelsea
- 1-0 v Vidi at home saw Chelsea rest some of the stars. Once Hazard came on, the goal came. Delaying produced juicy odds. Same again here?
- 2 consecutive 1-0 wins for Chelsea in the EL does betray changes in squad for this competition.
- BATE in their last visit to London, lost 6-0 to Arsenal.
- That is enough for me to expect a comfortable Chelsea win. 1-0, 3-0, 5-0 the correct scores for me. Fear not if 0-0 again.
FK Jablonec v FC Astana - 2.24 Jablonec
- 2-1 loss to Rennes and 2-2 v Dynamo Kiev for Jablonec.
- Unlucky v Rennes who won care of a penalty 90th minute.
- 2-2 draw v Dynamo Kiev for Astana and 2-0 win v Rennes. Astana have scored in the 90th minute in their 2 matches.
- Watch out therefore for a late Astana goal. Take a chance and lay the scoreline 90th minute in case they conjure up another goal.
- Limited form, 2 matches only for collateral form sees both teams score against the same opponents. 2-1/1-2 possibles?
Sarpsborg v Malmo FF - 2.3 Malmo
- Sarpsborg have been at it since July 2018 in the EL. 2 losses and a win last 3 matches suggests it's getting harder.
- Losses away v Maccabi Tel Aviv - 2-1 - and Besiktas - 3-1.
- Sarpsborg have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches in the EL - recent win 3-1 v Genk.
- 2-0 loss Malmo v Genk and 2-0 win v Besiktas makes their form tough to evaluate. They lose to a team Sarpsborg beat easily. They beat a side Sarpsborg lost 3-1 to.
- Welcome to the Europa League. In-play stats I'm afraid.
PAOK v MOL Vidi - 1.32 PAOK
- 0-1 loss to Chelsea and 1-4 win away v BATE for PAOK.
- PAOK's last 3 home defeats in the EL came without scoring. Score today and they are highly likely to win.
- Vidi are one of those unknown sides. Hungarian. 0-2 loss v BATE and 1-0 loss to Chelsea.
- It is that loss v BATE which suggests PAOK will win with something to spare today. We only really have 2 collateral form matches to work from but it looks clear-cut.
Marseille v Lazio - 2.04 Marseille
- 2 elite league sides in the EL. Are they fully motivated? Will they play their first teams?
- 1-2 loss for Marseille v Frankfurt and 2-2 draw v Apollon. They were unlucky with a 90th minute Apollon equaliser and disappointing not to get a result v 10 man Frankfurt.
- 2 consecutive home defeats for Marseille in the EL came v Atl Madrid and Frankfurt, fellow elite league sides.
- Lazio have scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 EL matches, total goals 6-4-2-6-5-3-5. A different attitude in this competition?
- 2-1 win v Apollon and 4-1 defeat v Frankfurt does suggest this Lazio shuffles the pack for the EL.
- If 0-0 for a while, take a chance on over 3.5 goals in the hope that Lazio produce another goal packed EL match. 4 defeats in 5 away in the EL for Lazio suggests we lay them if they lead at any stage.
Rennes v Dynamo Kiev - 2.44 Rennes
- Rennes have scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches in all competitions.
- 2-1 win v Jablonec and 2-0 loss away to Astana for Rennes so far in the EL.
- Only 1 team has scored in 6 of the last 7 matches in all competitions for Kiev, just as a contrast.
- 2 2-2 scorelines v Astana and Jablonec for Kiev this EL. 2-1 lead and a 0-2 lead for Kiev and caught out by 90th minute and 81st minute goals turning wins into draws.
- Kiev have a goal threat and a more concentrated last 10 minutes would see them with 2 consecutive wins.
- 4 consecutive EL matches saw Kiev concede 2 goals. Same again today? 2-1, 2-2, 1-2 potential scorelines.
Villarreal v Rapid Vienna - 1.4 Villareal
- Only 2 wins in 11 matches in all competitions for Villareal.
- 3 losses, a 2-2 and a 3-3 in the EL for Villareal suggests they may be fielding a weakened side.
- 2-2 v Rangers and 3-3 v Spartak.Villareal led 2-1 in both matches.
- 2-0 win v Spartak and 3-1 loss to Rangers for Rapid Vienna.
- The market looks right here on this collateral form. Villareal have 5 goals in 2 matches and Rapid 3 goals in 2 matches.
- Villareal should win this one and may concede.
Rangers v Spartak Moscow - 2.28 Rangers
- 5 wins in 6 for Rangers in all competitions.
- 14 wins and a 1-1 at home for Rangers.
- Rangers are unbeaten in 10 EL matches, conceding 0-0-0-1-1-0-0-1-2-1.
- Note Rangers have started conceding more regularly the deeper into the competition they get, BUT remain unbeaten.
- 4 wins and a 1-1 at home in the EL in 2018 for Rangers.
- 2 losses, a draw, and a 1-2 win v Atl Bilbao for Spartak. When they were last in the EL, they failed to win in 2011 and 2013.
- Rangers will need that defence to work again. They are conceding now, last 3, but not losing. They were superb v Villareal and I would enter this match expecting that solid home EL form to continue.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Apollon Limassol - 1.49 Frank
- 5 consecutive wins for Frankfurt in all competitions and 20 goals scored last 2 matches!
- They were last in the EL in 2014 and tended to have a good run when they were in the competition.
- This 2018, we see 1-2 away win v Marseille and 4-1 home win v Lazio. Now there is always a suspicion that some of the big names may be playing secondary squads but no taking away from the wins.
- Both matches had a red card. Frankfurt were red carded at 1-1 and still won.
- Lazio were red carded at 2-1 and were red carded again. 4-1 flatters on that basis.
- 2-1 loss to Lazio and 2-2 v Marseille for Apollon.
- They may score today but Frankfurt look like outscoring Apollon today on collateral form and that recent 5 match winning run.
Sevilla v Akhisar Belediye - 1.13 Sevilla
- Sevilla are up for the Europa League.
- Krasnador beat Sevilla 2-1 and I noted in research how defensive Krasnador were. Thie ends Sevilla's winning run in the EL.
- 14 wins in 15 matches at home in the EL for Sevilla.
- 4 consecutive defeats now for Akhisar in all competitions.
- 2 defeats in the EL.
- A major surprise (as the odds indicate) were Akhisar to get a sniff here. We know Sevilla actually want to win this competition when they are in it.
- 1.13 odds usually suggests a goal at least before halftime and 3/4 in total at least for Sevilla.
Standard v FK Krasnodar - 2.36 Standard
- With Krasnador's win v Sevilla latest, despite the match odds, I'll take a quick look.
- Standard lost 5-1 to Sevilla and 2-1 win v Akhisar. 0-1 v Akhisar and 2-1 win v Sevilla for Krasnador.
- A hint that the Russians may be tough to score against.
Besiktas v Genk - 2.1 Besiktas
- Besiktas have beaten Sarpsborg at home and lost 2-0 away to Malmo.
- 8 consecutive home wins in the EL for Besiktas.
- 7 wins and a loss v Sarpsborg for Genk in the EL. They beat Malmo at home.
- Another I'm afraid where I cannot split the sides based on very limited form.