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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, May 25, 2017

19:45 - AZ v Utrecht - 2.02 AZ

  • This looks to be a 2-legged play-off.
  • In 20 of their last 22 matches in the Dutch Eredivisie, AZ scored and conceded. Will that happen today or is the fact that this match is over 2 legs produce a more tactical affair.
  • AZ conceded 4-2-4-3-2 and scored 0-2-2-2-2 at home v top 5 teams. Utrecht are 4th and the last meeting was 2-3 with a 1-2 away win for AZ.
  • A brilliant end to the season for Utrecht saw 7 wins in 8 matches.
  • Only 1 loss for Utrecht away v teams 5th and lower.
  • In 9 of the 11 matches v teams directly below Utrecht away, both teams scored.

Conclusions

  • Very tricky to read apparent first-leg matches. Tactics will play a part.
  • On season league form, 2-2 has a great chance here today and would be a scoreline I would back for trading purposes were this a League match.

15:30 - Mattersburg v Rapid Vienna - 2.14 Rapid

  • 2 1-1 draws in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 7th v 6th in the Austrian Bundesliga.
  • There is nothing to play for, for these 2 teams with 2 matches left.
  • I do like Rapid Vienna though from a trading perspective so will take a quick look.

Mattersburg

  • Only 2 losses in 9 matches.
  • 7 wins in 8 home matches.
  • Unbeaten at home v 6th and lower scoring and conceding in 6 of 8 matches.

Rapid Vienna

  • Only 2 draws in 12 matches.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Conceded in their last 17 away.

Conclusions

  • I would favour Mattersburg today on form if these 2 teams are up for this dead rubber.
  • I would lay Rapid if Rapid scored first.

15:30 - St Polten v Wolfsberger AC - 2.32 St Polten

  • 0-4 and 1-0 Wolfsberger in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 8th in the Austrian Bundesliga.
  • St Polten still have something to play for as they can be relegated (a solitary relegation place).

St Polten

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 home matches.
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Both teams have scored in 76% of home matches.
  • Yet to beat Wolfsberger this season (3 matches).

Wolfsberger

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their 5 matches.
  • 7 losses and a draw in 8 away matches.
  • Only 3 away wins - v 6th, 9th and 10th so may be competitive.

Conclusions

  • This is a must-win for St Polten today as it will secure survival. They are 4 points above Reid. If St Polten draw they could still survive dependent on how Reid do.
  • I would though lay St Polten if St Polten scored first. Although Wolfsberger don't need a win, they have beaten the bottom 2. Both teams could score.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

15:30 - Austria Vienna v Red Bull Salzburg - 2.2 Red Bull

  • 5-0 Salzburg in the last head to head.
  • This is 2nd v 1st in the Austrian Bundesliga. Salzburg are champions. Austria Vienna still need to secure 2nd place.

Austria Vienna

  • 4 wins in their last 6 matches saw only 1 defeat last match.
  • 2 consecutive home wins scoring 3 and 4 goals.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • No draw in 6 at home.
  • Have lost all matches to Red Bull this season.
  • No 0-0.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

Red Bull Salzburg

  • Only 1 loss in 18 matches.
  • Scored in their last 18 matches and last 12 away.

Conclusions

  • Red Bull have nothing to play for but did win their last 2 home matches. Only 1 loss in 18 came when Red Bull knew that they were Champions.
  • Austria Vienna have lost all matches v Red Bull (3 of them) this season.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Expect 2 goals at least in total.

15:30 - Sturm Graz v Admira Wacker - 1.67 Sturm

  • 0-1 and 1-0 Admira in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 5th in the Austrian Bundesliga.
  • Sturm Graz are looking for 2nd spot which is achievable.

Sturm Graz

  • No draw in 19 matches and in 10 at home.
  • 5 wins in their last 6 home matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Lost 2 and won 1 v Admira this season.

Admira

  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Only 1 win in 8 away matches.
  • Have beaten 1st, 2nd and 3rd away.
  • Failed to score in their last 3 away matches.

Conclusions

  • The market is firmly with the side with need, and that is Sturm Graz despite Admira showing that they have the capacity to beat top 3 sides away from home.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Admira's recent form has dropped - season ended form? Sturm Graz have 5 wins in 6 so have the momentum to push for 2nd.
  • I will side with the market and be with Sturm Graz today.

15:30 - SCR Altach v SV Ried - 2.12 SCR

  • In last 4 head to heads the home team has remained unbeaten.
  • This is 4th v 10th (bottom of the Austrian Bundesliga). If Ried lose, then they are relegated.

SCR Altach

  • Have 3rd spot to aim for so still some motivation.
  • No win in 9 matches and in 4 at home.
  • 8 wins and a loss at home to 6th and lower.

SV Ried

  • Only 3 wins in 16 matches.
  • 11 defeats in 12 away matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in all bar 1 match away v top 5 and remember that these sides meet multiple times a season.
  • Beat Altach twice at home this season so can do it if they want to.

Conclusions

  • 2 teams motivated for different reasons. The problem with must-win Ried is that they have had 11 defeats in their last 12 matches.
  • Expect Ried to concede at some point although they might be re-invigoured as needs must.
  • SCR are going through a poor bit of form at home but season long tend to win.
  • I would expect Altach not to lose but am ready for an above par Ried performance. It will take a leap of faith though given their poor form.

16:00 - Copenhagen v Brondby - 1.81 Copenhagen

  • 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 Copenhagen, 1-0 Copenhagen in the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is the Danish cup.

Copenhagen recent form all competitions

  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Beat Brondby 1-0 as recently as 14th May.
  • 7 wins in their last 8 home matches.

Copenhagen cup form

  • Unbeaten in 16 matches.
  • 6 consecutive wins.
  • 2 goals scored at least in their last 5 matches.
  • DDDDW - D = draw and W=Win in the last 5 home cup matches. both teams scored in their last 4 matches.

Brondby recent form in all competitions

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats includes against Copenhagen.

Brondby cup form

  • Only 1 loss in 12 cup matches came against Copenhagen.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 away.
  • Unbeaten in 11 away.

Conclusions

  • I would lay Copenhagen today if Copenhagen led given their ropey recent cup form at home. This is despite Copenhagen beating Brondby recently in the cup and in the league 1-0.
  • Perhaps a 1-0 cover on Copenhagen before laying them?

18:00 - Orgryte v Varnamo - 2.22 Orgyrte

  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met in head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 11th in the Swedish Superettan after 9 matches.

Orgryte

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Unbeaten at home with 2 draws and a win last 3 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of 5 home matches.
  • All 3 home wins were 2-1.

Varnamo

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive away defeats, both teams scored.
  • 2 of 3 wins came v bottom 4.
  • No away draw.

Conclusions

  • Form must be with Orgryte today.
  • Both teams could score today and Varnamo not win so use that as a possible angle.
  • 3 2-1 wins for Orgryte could be the template to use.

Tennis

ATP Lyon

Khachanov v Tsonga - 1.58 Tsonga

  • I tend to follow country men in their local tournaments and Tsonga came out well.
  • 56th v 11th in the rankings.
  • No head to heads.
  • Khachanov has beaten 77th and 88th in his 2 Lyon matches. His defeats recently came v 10th and 39th in the rankings. He has had a ding dong with Goffin and the recent record is Loss (3 sets) Win (3 sets) Loss in Madrid (2 sets).
  • 3 tie breakers in his last 4 so may take Tsonga all the way in at least one set.
  • Tsonga won in Rotterdam and Marseille  but withdrew in Madrid with a shoulder injury.
  • He beat Berlocq after losing the first set in a tie breaker.

Conclusions

  • I will again side with the frenchman despite that niggle with his shoulder. I do hope we see a first set tie breaker. I think Tsonga will eventually get through. Berlocq was 62nd in the rankings. Note Tsonga won the last 2 sets with ease. So first set resistance and then Tsonga to go through?

Milos Raonic v Gastao Elias - 1.16 Raonic

  • Quarter final in Lyon. 6th v 108th in the rankings.
  • Last head to head was in 2009.
  • Raonic beat Istomin in the first round in 2 sets. Elias beat Del Potro and that was a surprise. The first set was a tie breaker.
  • Raonic was the same odds yesterday.

Conclusions

  • If Elias wins the first set this time, I will lay him. I mentioned Elias's usual 3 set matches and that ended yesterday but I will revert to that today. If he wins the first set I think there will be a 3 setter.

Tomas Berdych v Gilles Simon - 1.63 Berdych

  • 13th v 30th in the rankings. I mentioned yesterday that I thought Berdych's odds were a little high yesterday. He won in 2 sets.
  • These 2 have met plenty of times. Berdych won the last 2 head to heads in 2015 and 2016.
  • 4 3 setters in 5 matches for Simon suggests he is gettable if winning the opening set.
  • Players to beat Berdych recently? Raonic, Alexander Zverev, Cilic, Federer. It takes a good un to beat Berdych.

Conclusions

  • Simon is at his home tournament. He will be motivated. I will lay Simon if he wins the opening set. I was impressed by Berdych's 2 set win yesterday against Chung who has had an excellent recent run of form.

WTA Nurnberg

Carina Witthoeft v Barbora Krejcikova - 1.24 Witt

  • 69th v 218th in the rankings.
  • Witthoeft is a German in her home tournament.
  • No head to heads.
  • Krejcikova must have a voodoo doll of her rivals. Both have retired in the last 2 Nurnberg matches.
  • 45th v 53rd ranked players were beaten by Witthoeft recently. 218th should be within her compass.

Conclusions

  • Barbora is living a charmed life and I think a fit Witthoeft will win today.
  • The reason Krejcikova won the first set yesterday can be seen in Siegemund's eventual retirement. Obviously Siegemund was injured.

Kiki Bertens v Alison Riske - 1.41 Kiki

  • 20th v 39th in the rankings.
  • Beefy Curtains is 1st seed here.
  • Head to heads are from 2013.
  • I don't see much in Riske's form. LLWLWLWLLWW (W=Win and L=Loss). Riske has not been getting past the round of 16 regularly but managed it last match.
  • Riske beat 65th and 93rd in the rankings in this tournament.
  • Beefy has been superb of late. A quarter final in Madrid and a semi final loss in Rome to 5th seed Halep.

Conclusions

  • I cannot see anything in Riske's form to trouble old Beefy today. Beefy's first set v beck was a 7-5 so we may see a tight first set today but Bertens is the form player.

Geneva Open

Steve Johnson v Mischa Zverev - 1.61 Steve

  • 25th v 35th in the rankings so a tight match is expected.
  • Johnson won in Houston. He has had 2 straight set wins here in Geneva v 92nd and 84th ranked players.
  • I still made money opposing Zverev yesterday after he won the first set and lost the 2nd set.
  • I said yesterday that Mischa was a 3 set man, 3 consecutive 3 set matches now in Geneva. So note this.

Conclusions

  • I will oppose Zverev if Zverev wins the first set.

Kevin Anderson v Kei Nishikori - 1.37 Nishikori

  • 66th v 7th in the rankings.
  • 4-1 to Nishikori in head to heads. Anderson won in 2015 care of 2 tie breakers.
  • 78th, 38th, 85th, 122nd recent wins for Anderson. Yet to meet a top 10 player recently.
  • Lost to Nishikori in Miami in 2 sets.
  • Anderson took a set off Alexander Zverev in Rome before losing.
  • Anderson has had 2 tie breakers in his last 2 Geneva matches.
  • Nishikori withdrew from Madrid and since then beat Ferrer, lost to Del Potro and  beat Kukushkin.

Conclusions

  • Recent head to heads see Nishikori ahead.
  • Anderson should not be winning 2-0 today so there is a ready angle. Anderson has won tie breakers in his 2 Geneva matches and I am not impressed by tie breaker wins as it is simply a matter of winning a key point or two at the right time.

Stan Wawrinka v Sam Querrey - 1.47 Stanislas

  • 3rd v 27th in the rankings.
  • Last head to head was 2014 which may be irrelevant.
  • Stanislas the Manislas is Swiss and already that is a plus for me in his home country.
  • Little to gather from the retirement of Silva in the first leg.
  • I said yesterday that Wawrinka is not consistent for me. Note he lost and won against the same player in consecutive matches.
  • Recent form. 3 set loss, 3 set win, 2 set loss, 3 set loss, 3 set win, 2 set loss, retirement win for Stanislas. Not good.
  • 255th, 321st and now 3rd in the World for Sam Querrey.
  • Thiem, Belluci, Kyrgios, Agut recent victors over Querrey

Conclusions

  • I tend not to trade Wawrinka matches because I do not trust him. Hugely talented but does not give his all, all the time.
  • On that basis, the value may be in laying him if he wins the first set.

Andrey Kuznetsov v Stebe - 1.22 Kuznetsov

  • 87th v 322nd in the rankings.
  • Head to head from 2010 is irrelevant.
  • Stebe took advantage of a Tipsarevic retirement. His other 3 matches have been 3 setters. 6 of his last 7 matches were 3 setters. The 2 setter was a defeat.
  • Kuznetsov has been in reasonable form, it took Tsonga 2 tie breaker sets to win in 3 in Madrid.
  • He beat 19th and 54th here in Geneva.

Conclusions

  • Kuznetsov should be winning today against a player still here care of a retirement. Stebe is a 3 setter so if he happens to win the first set, lay him.
Favourites in Strasbourg are priced 1.86, 1.83, 1.67, 1.94 which tells us this is the business end and the players look well-matched. No plays for me.