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I start today to introduce the Finns and the Swedes as they will serve us well during the summer. The leagues are fairly young currently so patterns are short. Today's matches? I have liked following Willem II but feel (when they lost easily to Ajax) that PSV will be a step too far. Rayo need to win but Sevilla are the form side. Will this go with needs-must, or season form? Real Madrid wobble away but Getafe are 5/7 defeats v the top 5.

COPPA ITALIA

19:45 - Atalanta v Fiorentina - 1.77 Atalanta

  • Fun and games in the first leg of this Coppa Italia match saw a 3-3. Atalanta led 0-2, Fiorentina brought it back to 2-2, then 2-3 Atalanta, 3-3, Fiorentina.
  • Historically in the Coppa, Atalanta at home have been great, all wins bar a loss v Juventus 0-1.
  • In 2017, Fiorentina lost 1-0 away to Napoli and Lazio in the cup. 0-2 win v Torino last away match.
  • Little for me to work with I'm afraid.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - ADO Den Haag v Excelsior - 1.95 ADO Den Haag

  • 3 matches remain. ADO are 12th, 7 points clear of relegation so a win today sorts out survival.
  • Excelsior are 18th and must win. They are 6 points away from safety with 9 points remaining.
  • 7 losses and a draw in 8 matches for Excelsior. 2 wins in 3 for ADO.
  • ADO scored in their last 8 home matches. Excelsior failed to win their last 9 away.
  • ADO are unbeaten v 16th and lower, albeit 4 draws and a single win. 2-4 win over Excelsior last time these 2 met.
  • Excelsior have not beaten a top 14 side away this season.
  • Needs must for Excelsior who have to end a pattern of failing to win away v the top 14.
  • ADO are unbeaten v the bottom 3 so are favoured on seasonal form, albeit a lot of draws.

19:45 - Willem II v PSV - 1.47 PSV

  • Quite simply, PSV must win to keep tabs on Ajax at the top.
  • Willem II have little to gain and are safe mid table.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home for WIllem II.
  • In 20 of their last 21 matches, we have seen at least a goal before halftime in Willem II matches.
  • No draw in 11 at home for Willem II. They scored in their last 15 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime both teams home / away.
  • Willem II have lost 3/3 v the top 2. But are unbeaten v 3rd-6th - 5 wins and a draw.
  • PSV have only 2 losses all season.
  • They have scored in their last 31 matches.
  • 6-1 win over Willem II earlier this season.
  • For me, Willem II are in decent nick but the struggles they had v Ajax suggests that they will struggle again v a highly motivated PSV. Simple angle.
  • With PSV usually, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

SPANISH LA LIGA

18:30 - Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano - 1.34 Sevilla

Sevilla (6th)

  • 5 matches remain. 4th spot, even 3rd spot, is within their reach.
  • 5 wins in 7 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • No draw in 10 and in 5 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v 8th and lower. 100% wins at home v 15th and lower.
  • 21 of 32 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Rayo Vallecano (20th)

  • Only 1 win since 4th February.
  • Bottom but not relegated yet. But must start winning.
  • 6 consecutive defeats away.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 6 away.
  • All defeats away v the top 7.
  • 9 of 14 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Rayo need to win but on form are not likely to. Sevilla are in solid recent form and 100% wins v 15th and over should see points heading home.

19:30 - Real Sociedad v Villareal - 2.54 Sociedad

  • Both sides are (sort of) in the relegation zone. Villareal more so.
  • Both teams have scored in Sociedad's last 7 matches with just the one win.
  • In their last 8 home matches, Sociedad have only lost to Atl Madrid. A good bit of form.
  • v 9th and lower at home, Sociedad have only one loss. But v 13th and lower at home, 5 draws, a loss and a win so Villareal will eye an opportunity here.
  • 2 consecutive wins for Villareal. Win, Loss, Loss, Win away for Villareal.
  • All Villareal wins away required a clean sheet.
  • Clean sheets away v 12th, 13th, 14th....and Sociedad play 11th today.
  • 2.54, as you know, suggests a wide open affair. For instance, could you predict 3-1 Wolves v Arsenal last night?
  • Villareal look as if they win away with a clean sheet. Sociedad though have scored and conceded in their last 7 matches so....if Villareal score first, perhaps cover the 0-1 insurance and lay Villareal.

20:30 - Getafe v Real Madrid - 2.04 Real Madrid

Getafe (4th)

  • Only 7 losses this season. Lost to Real Madrid earlier this season.
  • 6 wins and a loss in their last 7 home matches.
  • No draw in 14 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 5 of 7 defeats this season came v the top 5.
  • 3/3 losses at home v the top 5.
  • 16 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Real Madrid (3rd)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches. 5 consecutive away wins ended with a loss v Valencia and 1-1 draw v Leganes.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 8 away matches.
  • Only 1 win away for Real v top 8. Beat Atl Madrid away (2nd).
  • 2-0 win v Getafe earlier this season.

Conclusions

  • Clearly Real Madrid are wobbly away from home but then Getafe have 5/7 defeats v the top 5.
  • This is why Real Madrid are not even odds on favourites. 2nd place is possible for Real Madrid.
  • Real Madrid could score and concede as usual away from home. Watch out for that.

FINNISH VEIKKAUSLIIGA

16:30 - Honka v Inter Turku - 1.93 Honka

  • This is a league worth getting to know as it is only 3/4 matches into the season so will serve us well over the summer. The main team to focus on is HJK Helsinki. The league is covered by Soccerstats.com.
  • Honka have played only 3 matches. 2 away wins and one home loss.
  • Both teams have scored in all of Inter Turku's matches this season and they won only one match.
  • A loss, a win and a draw away for Turku.
  • Little to get our teeth into but a suggestion Inter Turku could equalise if conceding today.

16:30 - KPV v Mariehamn - 2.26 Mariehamn

  • Only 3 matches played by both of these 2 teams. 2 losses and a draw for KPV. 2 home losses without scoring. That sequence will end for KPV. They cannot keep not scoring at home.
  • A 2-1 loss to HJK for Mariehamn in their opener ended with 2 consecutive wins. Mariehamn have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 2 matches.
  • Again, 3 matches is too small a sample for strong patterns to emerge.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

This is one of the summer leagues. Only 4 matches played may not offer us any form angles currently but it is worth getting familiar with the teams.

17:45 - Djurgarden v v Norrkoping - 2.12 Djurgarden

  • A 2-2 draw and 3 wins for Djurgarden.
  • Djurgarden have scored 2+ goals in 3/4 matches.
  • They have scored and conceded in 2 home matches, scoring 2 goals.
  • Norrkoping have only 1 win, 4-3 home win last match.
  • 3-0-2-3 goals conceded by Norrkoping so far this season in their 4 matches.
  • Little to work with but it seems Norrkoping's defensive coach hasn't turned up yet this season and that may see advantage Djurgarden.

18:00 - Helsingborg v GIF Sundsvall - 2.2 Helsingborgs

  • Both teams have scored in these 2 sides' 4 matches this season. Is that an angle in?
  • 2/2 wins at home for Helsingborgs - lay GIF if GIF score first?
  • 2-2 and 3-1 loss away for GIF this season may back that up.
  • GIF did beat Malmo at home 3-1 which is an eyecatcher but have conceded, as I say, 2/3 goals.
  • I repeat, only 4 matches played. But I would not expect a 0-0 and would consider laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market given both teams are expected to score and both teams have had over 2.5 goals matches.

18:00 - Kalmar v IFK Goteborg - 2.12 Kalmar

  • Kalmar have conceded 2 goals in their 2 home matches this season.
  • 2-1-2-2 goals conceded by Kalmar this season.
  • 2 wins at home for IFK and 2 losses away by IFK this season. They scored and conceded in their 2 away matches.
  • 2 sides yet to get going this season.
  • Note in these 2 teams' solitary 0-0 at halftime, we saw 3/4 goals 2nd half so that may be an angle.