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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 23, 2017

World Cup qualifiers Asia and South America dominate today. Yesterday was friendly day. The Czechs won 3-0 and Scotland came from behind to score another solitary goal in a friendly.

11:35 - China v South Korea - 2.22 South Korea

  • This is an Asian World Cup Qualifier.
  • China are bottom of Group A and South Korea 2nd. It looks a 3 horse race for South Korea in Group A.

China form

  • Korea took a 3-0 lead the last time these 2 teams met, and China scored 2 2nd half goals to leave a respectable scoreline.
  • Since then the Chinese, whose domestic league is having millions shovelled into it, have failed to score in 4 matches now.
  • 2 0-0's and a 0-1 at home for China so defence is the key for them, albeit rather negative football.

South Korea form

  • Only 1 loss in 13 World Cup qualifiers sees the Koreans in a groove. Only loss was v Iran, a 1-0 and Iran are top of Group A.
  • 0-0 and 1-0 losses away - the Korean attack is blunted away.

Conclusions

  • I am still with the hotdog South Korean side here not to lose. China simply have trouble scoring, and their 2 when 3-0 down to Korea was more about Korean complacency than Chinese potency.
  • I would lay China if China scored first.

12:00 - Syria v Uzbekistan - 1.96 Uzbekistan

  • This is another Group A World Cup qualifier.
  • 3rd and 4th in the group. Uzbekistan with 9 points are only 2 off top placed Iran.

Syria Form

  • A 73rd minute Uzkbek 1-0 the last time these 2 sides met.
  • Syria only have one win, a 1-0 v China which is poor stuff.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 World Cup qualifiers.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's at home suggest tactics today.

Uzbekistan Form

  • 10 wins and 2 defeats in 12 World Cup qualifiers suggests an Uzbek side used to winning.4 of the last 5 wins were 1-0 and all recent wins have been to nil.
  • Losses have come v the top 2 in the group.

Conclusions

  • It seems to be that this will be a game of defences. Back 0-0 pre match and hope Syria try to pull off another clean sheet?
  • I would trade out at halftime if 0-0 at halftime.
  • 0-1, 0-2 Uzbeks looks the most likeliest scoreline if there is to be a winner.

12:00 - Thailand v Saudi Arabia - 1.98 Saudi

  • 1-0 late late penalty for Saudi Arabia in a very unconvincing win the last time these 2 met. On that basis the Saudi's odds are too short today.
  • The Saudis lead Group B and Thailand are struggling bottom placed. Saudis look the surprise package here with obvious candidates Japan and Australia in 2nd and 3rd.

Thailand form

  • 4 defeats and a 2-2 v Australia.
  • 0-2 v Japan and 2-2 v Australia in the last 2 home matches - Australia's goals were scored by penalties.
  • It does seem that luck is not on the Thais' side with those penalty concessions v Saudis and Australia costing them dear.

Saudi Arabia form

  • Only loss in 13 World Cup qualifiers was a 2-1 loss to Japan last match.Penalty and 80th minute winner for Japan suggests this is a tight old group with a lot of matches determined from the spot.
  • 1-1, 1-2 win and 2-1 loss in their 3 aways suggests Thailand have a chance if Thailand can replicate the 2 goals scored v Australia.

Conclusions

  • If Thailand set up as they did against Australia, Thailand will get something here today. Saudis only beat them via a penalty last time. This could be another 0-0 match for a while if you want to back 0-0 pre match and hope defenses are on top.
  • I would take a chance and lay the Saudis if the Saudis score first.

13:00 - Iraq v Australia - 1.76 Australia

  • 5th and 3rd in Group B. Iraq and Thailand are adrift. Australia must be eyeing 3 points in this group where top 4 teams are within 1 point of each other.

Iraq form

  • 4 defeats and a win v Thailand.
  • Iraq have tended to concede 2 in defeat.
  • They lost 2-1 to the big 2 from this group.
  • Iraq have scored in each of their last 5 home World Cup qualifiers.

Australia Form

  • 3 consecutive score draws now is ensuring they get at least a point out of matches.
  • 0-1 and 2 consecutive 2-2 draws in the last 3 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Australia have scored 2 goals in their last 2 aways and could score 2 again today and this time WIN instead of concede another 2 goals.
  • That will be my angle today. 1-2 looks a reasonable starting point assuming an Australian win. We have those 3 Aussie score draws sequence to end to and I would lay any late score draw.

15:30 - UAE v Japan - 1.93 Japan

  • 1-2 UAE win last head to head care of a very contentious late penalty.
  • UAE and Japan are 2 of the 4 sides within a point of each other in Group B.

UAE form

  • No draw in 5 qualifiers.
  • UAE beat Japan, Thailand and Iraq and lost to Australia and Saudi Arabia.
  • 2 home wins v Thailand and Iraq (the 2 strugglers in the group) and a 0-1 loss v Australia.

Japan form

  • 3 times we have seen a 2-1 scoreline, a loss v UAE and wins v Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
  • 0-2 win v Japan and 1-1 v Australia and we get a clear indication for potential scorelines.
  • I would look at one of 3, 1-1, 2-1 and 1-2 The odds will go up if you delay these scorelines.
  • I may lay the first team to score in the hope both teams score today.

16:00 - Qatar v Iran - 2.26 Iran

  • 5th v 1st in Group A, Iran are looking the team to beat here. So a mystery regarding their relatively high odds.
  • This is a 3 team group realistically with Iran, Korea and Uzbekistan.
  • 2-0 Iran last head to head saw 2 90th minute goals.

Qatar form

  • 3 defeats, a win v Syria and a 0-0 v China.
  • 0-1 v Uzbeks at home and 1-0 v Syria at home. Qatar it seems will be looking for a long drawn out 0-0 and a hope of a stolen winner.

Iran form

  • Yet to concede a goal so worse case is a 0-0 as was seen away at China and away at Syria.

Conclusions

  • 0-0 must be in play surely? If Iran score, they win. 0-0 and 0-1 appeals to me today. I cannot see Iran losing. It is a matter of whether they can break that 0-0 sequence away.
  • I would lay any very late 0-0 here as these sequences tend to end.

20:30 - Colombia v Bolivia - 1.19 Colombia

  • 2-3 Colombia in the last head to head.
  • This South American group sees all teams in just the one group.
  • Colombia are 6th and Bolivia are 9th of 10 in the group.
  • Colombia could go 3rd with a win.Bolivia have only 7 points.

Colombia form

  • Only 1 win in 5 qualifiers was a 0-1 v Paraguay.
  • 3-2-2-1-1-2 goals scored ended with 2 consecutive failures to score.
  • Colombia have goals in them at home. 3-2-2-0 scored in their last 4 at home, winning 2 and drawing 2.

Bolivia form

  • Only 1 win in 13 matches came last match v Paraguay.
  • Prior to that 1-0 win, Bolivia conceded 2 goals at least in all of the previous 19 matches.

Conclusions

  • Bolivia's record is so bad, Colombia should take advantage and score 2 goals at least.
  • Back Colombia if Bolivia score first.

23:00 - Paraguay v Ecuador - 2.6 Paraguay

  • Another 2-2 head to head. Quite a habit in South America.
  • 7th v 3rd in the group of 10 in South America. Ecuador are having a great campaign.

Paraguay form

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • 2-2 at home v Brazil, 2-1 win at home v Chile, then losses v Colombia and Peru.

Ecuador form

  • Impressive 3-0 wins v Chile and Venezuela both came at home.
  • 3-1, 2-1, 2-2, 2-1 defeats away.

Conclusions

  • Slight nod towards Paraguay here with their home wins being quite impressive and their result v Brazil. But then 2 consecutive losses.
  • Ecuador are 3rd in the group but no win in 4 away.
  • Both teams to score today? Lay the first team to score 2 goals?

23:00 - Uruguay v Brazil - 2.36 Brazil

  • 2-2 earlier saw Brazil take a 2-0 lead. This is a clash of attacking giants and 2nd and 1st in the South America Round One group.

Uruguay form

  • 4-3-2-2-1 goals scored recently. Dropped off v Chile.
  • Unbeaten in 14 at home and now 8 consecutive wins scoring 2-3-3-3-1-4-3-2 goals.

Brazil form

  • 6 consecutive wins now keeping 5 clean sheets.
  • Unbeaten in 11 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in the last 9 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away wins to nil.

Conclusions

  • Rock solid home form versus rock solid overall form. Who will come out of this best?
  • Is 2-2 another viable correct score?
  • Too tough to call.

23:30 - Venezuela v Peru - 2.68 Venezuela

  • Another 2-2 head to head saw Venezuela take a 0-2 lead.
  • These 2 are struggling.

Venezuela form

  • Only 1 win in 13 matches was a whopping 5-0 win over Bolivia. Where did that come from?
  • That was after failing to score in 3 of the last 4 matches.

Peru form

  • Wins over Bolivia, Ecuador and Paraguay.
  • Recent losses came v Brazil, Chile and Uruguay. Hardly unexpected!
  • 2 wins in their last 3 away matches were the only 2 wins away since October 2004.

Conclusions

  • Peru may have a chance now, as they have 2 recent away wins and have only lost to 3 top teams in South America. It is with a degree of trepidation that I favour Peru and would lay Venezuela if Venezuela scored first.

23:30 - Argentina v Chile - 1.53 Argentine

  • 2 2-1 Argentina wins and a 0-0 in the last 3 head to heads. These matches look tighter than today's odds would suggest.

Argentina form

  • 5th in the group of 10, Argentina could go 2nd (other results pending) with a win today.
  • Argentina have only won 1 of their last 5 qualifiers.
  • 0-0-1-0 conceded in their last 4 home matches so tough defensively at home winning 3 of those 4 matches.

Chile form

  • WLWLWDW (W=Win, L=Loss, D=Draw) in recent matches Not putting up a winning sequence.
  • Last 3 wins came at home and that may be where Chile's points come from.
  • 1-0-0 scored in their last 3 away matches so not good travellers.

Conclusions

  • Chile are clearly struggling away from home and this could be an Argentina tight win today, 1-0, or 2-1, something like that.
  • I could oppose Chile if Chile scored first.