Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

EUROPEAN CHAMPIONSHIP QUALIFYING

https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/season=2020/standings/index.html will show you the various groups and remind you that this is the beginning of European Championship qualifying.
There is no current form to work with.The last Euro Championship qualifier form will be from 2015.
Take your cues today from the market - odds on favourites (i.e. below 2.00 decimal odds) should get your attention initially.
I have also included the FIFA World Rankings which should give a form angle of sorts. The World Rankings are bracketed next to the team's names. I hope you find the research useful. It is tough to get angles in, particularly as the last Euro Championship form was 2015, where different managers and different players were involved.

15:00 - Kazakhstan(117th) v Scotland (40th) - 1.88 Scotland

Home side overall form

  • Only 4 wins since August 2016 v Hungary, Azerbaijan, Andorra and Moldova should not concern the Scots.

Home side form at home

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches v Georgia (91st). 3 of the 4 wins I mention above came at home.

Home side overall form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • Only 3 wins since June 2007.

Home side home form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • Only been in qualifiers since 2006, and only 2 wins at home. 4 consecutive home defeats.0-0-2-0-0-1 goals scored.

Away side overall form

  • 2 consecutive wins in the Nations League v Albania (61st) and Israel (92nd).

Away side form away

  • 3 losses in 4 away.

Away side overall form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • In recent years, Scotland have been soli. Since 2014, only losses v Georgia and 2-3 v Germany. Questionable whether they have met real elite sides since 2014.

Away side away form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • Last in away qualifiers in 2015. Woeful. Only 2 wins in 10. But 3 years + is a long time in football. New personnel, new players.

Conclusions

  • Scotland's away form is worrisome, albeit last posted in this competition in 2015. But with only 3 wins since 2007 in these qualifiers for the Kazaks, on probability alone the Scots should not lose.

17:00 - Cyprus (87th) v San Marino (211th) - 1.02 Cyprus

These odds are from www.williamhill.com and suggest an absolute spanking. The usual way I play these odds? Hope for a 0-0 after 20 minutes, then back 1-0, 2-0, even any unquoted in the halftime score market if the market is liquid enough. Can you trust 87th in the FIFA Rankings? Only 1 win for Cyprus since September 2017.100% defeats in all matches for San Marino since 27th March 2015. They failed to score in 15 of their last 16 defeats.

19:45 kick offs

Northern Ireland (36th) v Estonia (96th) - 1.42 Northern Ireland

Home side overall form

  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 wins since October 2017 v Korea and Israel.

Home side form at home

  • 4 defeats in their last 6 matches. Wins v the 2 mentioned above.

Home side overall form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • Only 1 loss in 10, scoring and conceding without defeat in the last 4 matches.

Home side home form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • Only 2 losses in 15 since September 2006.
  • 3 wins and 2 draws last 5. Scored and conceded in 3 of their last 4 without losing.

Away side overall form

  • 2 wins v Greece and Finland and a draw v Iceland latest.
  • 2 of only 3 wins since November 2017.

Away side form away

  • Same results as above last 3. Ended a run of  losing 4 without scoring.

Away side overall form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • Since October 2014, wins only v San Marino and Lithuania albeit going back to 2015.

Away side away form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • Failed to score in 5 consecutive since 2014/2015.

Conclusions

  • Poor recent form for NI but they seem to come alive in EC Qualifiers albeit the last set were in 2015, where Estonia failed to score in 5 consecutive away matches. Good recent form for Estonia. Faith in Northern Ireland's EC qualification form?

Netherlands (14th) v Belarus (78th) - 1.11 Netherlands

  • No indepth research, suffice to say that if these odds are accurate, Netherlands should be scoring before halftime and winning, ideally, to nil. So if 0-0 after 20 minutes, back 1-0, 2-0, even any unquoted in the halftime score market.
  • Only 3 defeats for the Dutch since May 2017 against France twice and Englands suggests no problems this evening.
  • The Dutch have been really poor in qualifiers, 2014/2015 - LWDWLLWL (W=Win, L=Loss, D=Draw). Is this 2019 team back on the right footing?
  • Belarus are on a run of 8 clean sheets in 11 matches. France beat them recently with 7th and 75th minute goals.
  • 3/3 clean sheets in qualifiers for Belarus in 2015.
  • The value really is in backing 0-0 pre-match and hoping this ultra defensive Belarus turn up today. The odds of 1.11 though suggests what I opened up this research with.

Slovakia (29th) v Hungary (52nd) - 1.73 Slovakia

Home side overall form

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches came v Denmark and Ukraine. Those were the only occasions Slovakia scored 2 goals in those matches.

Home side form at home

  • 7 wins, a draw and a loss last 9 matches. Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6, losing only once 1-2 to the Czechs (44th).

Home side overall form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • A very solid 2014 and 2015 campaign. 6 consecutive wins then losses to Spain and Belarus.

Home side home form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • From 2011 onwards, they only really dropped points when failing to score.

Away side overall form

  • 2 consecutive 2-0 wins v Estonia (96th) and Finland (59th).

Away side form away

  • 6 losses and 2 draws last 8 matches. Poor travellers.

Away side overall form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • Only 2 losses in 16 matches. Remember these go back 2015 and before.

Away side away form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • Only 1 loss in 8 away from 2015 and lower. 4-3 loss v Greece. 5 wins did rely upon clean sheets. Is this something Hungary will attempt today? A clean sheet win?

Conclusions

  • In recent form, Slovakia have had trouble scoring 2 goals. That may suggest laying Slovakia if they score first. Hungary are poor travellers though.

Croatia (4th) v Azerbaijan (108th) - 1.08 Croatia

Home side overall form

  • Since March 2018, it has taken a big name to beat Croatia - Brazil, France, Spain and England.Croatia also did draw with England and beat Spain.
  • Croatia have done a bit of scoring and conceding of late.

Home side form at home

  • Croatia have not lost a home match since September 2014.
  • They have scored and conceded in 7/9 so that habit remains.

Home side overall form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • All 4 defeats since October 2003 saw Croatia fail to score.

Home side home form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • 100% unbeaten record.

Away side overall form

  • Last 3 wins v Kyrgyzstan, and Faroe Islands twice.
  • When meeting a big name, such as Germany, they conceded 9 goals in 2 matches.

Away side form away

  • Only 4 away wins since 2012 v San Marino, Qatar, Latvia, and Faroes.

Conclusions

  • I end the research early. It looks compelling. Enter this match expecting Croatia to maintain a 100% home unbeaten record in the Qualifiers.
  • 1.08 tells us that Croatia may match Germany's 4/5 goals v Azerbaijan. Do look for potential 0-0 after 20 minutes in line with the other shorties I have already mentioned.

Israel (92nd) v Slovenia (63rd) - 2.20 Israel

Home side overall form

  • Look at the teams Israel have beaten of late - Macedonia (71st), Liechtenstein (171st) - twice, Albania (61st) - twice, Scotland (40th), Guatemala (149th). Yes, they have beaten sides below Slovenia's FIFA ranking.

Home side form at home

  • 3 consecutive wins. 4 losses before that. Wins against Scotland, Albania and Guatemala.

Home side overall form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • From 2015, 5 losses, a draw and a win v Andorra. Poor form.

Home side home form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • 4 losses in 6 matches saw Israel fail to score in 3 od those matches.

Away side overall form

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches. 3 consecutive 1-1 draws.

Away side form away

  • Only 4 wins away since October 2013.

Away side overall form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • Wins v Estonia, and San Marino twice has Slovenia entering minnows mode.

Away side away form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • Wins away v minnows Lithuania, San Marino and Faroes.

Conclusions

  • Slovenia tend to beat teams 100+ ranked. I don't have a strong angle here.

FYR Macedonia (71st) v Latvia (131st) - 1.36 FYR Macedonia

Home side overall form

  • Only 2 losses in 17 matches came v Spain and Armenia.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches. 4 of those wins came to nil.Conceded 2 goals only in those defeats.

Home side form at home

  • 5 consecutive home wins, scoring 2+ goals. 4 clean sheets in those.

Home side overall form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • 7 losses and a 0-0 2015 and earlier - failing to score in 4 matches,

Home side home form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • 4 consecutive defeats, failing to score in 3 of those.

Away side overall form

  • 3 draws in 4. Only 2 wins in 25 matches.

Away side form away

  • No win in 14 matches. 3 draws in 4 matches.

Away side overall form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • No win in 11 matches, losses and draws alternately.

Away side away form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • 3 draws in 4 matches. 3 were score draws.

Conclusions

  • The odds look right here. This Macedonian side are looking far better than their ranking and have excellent recent form. I am with Macedonia here.

Austria (23rd) v Poland (20th) - 2.3 Austria

Home side overall form

  • 3 losses since September 2017, v Brazil, Bosnia and Denmark.

Home side form at home

  • Only 1 loss in 13 came v Brazil. 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.

Home side overall form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • 8 consecutive wins - questionable strength of opponents.

Home side home form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • 4 consecutive wins to nil. 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Away side overall form

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches. 1-1-2-0-0-1 goals scored, and that, with Lewandowski as a centre forward!

Away side form away

  • Only 1 loss in 12 v Denmark is good form. 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.

Away side overall form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • Only 2 defeats since September 2006.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.

Away side away form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • No win in 3 matches. Wins only recently v Georgia and Gibraltar.

Conclusions

  • Solid away form for Poland in all competition is matched with Austria's only 1 loss in 13 matches which came v Brazil.
  • I am a little concerned with Poland's lack of goals in recent matches. That might undo them this evening. 1-1-2-0-0-1 goals scored recently in all competitions.

Belgium (1st) v Russia (50th) - 1.32 Belgium

Home side overall form

  • Only losses since September 2016 came v Switzerland and France.

Home side form at home

  • 15 wins and 4 draws in the last 19 matches. Tough to beat at home.

Home side overall form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • 6 wins in 7 matches from 2015 and earlier.

Home side home form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • From 2015 and earlier, had a reputation for goals at home. 6-0-5-3-3 goals scored.

Away side overall form

  • Recent away losses v Germany and Sweden.
  • Good World Cup ....because it was in Russia?

Away side form away

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.

Away side overall form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • Last 3 losses in the Qualifiers saw Russia not score.
  • 4 consecutive wins from 2015 saw 3 clean sheets.

Away side away form in European Championship qualifiers of the past

  • Since 2011 in qualifiers, did not concede that 2nd goal.Is this a tactic today?

Conclusions

  • Belgium are extremely tough to beat at home in all competitions. In qualifiers at home, albeit 2015 and earlier, Belgium have had a real reputation for goals. As to Russia, a potential defensive set up should eventually be undone by that sumptuous Belgian forward line.