Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

No video at the moment until I leave Thai immigration. A small selection of matches today but I hope there will be some readability and tradeability.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Liverpool v Burnley - 1.18 Liverpool

Liverpool - 4th

  • 3 draws and a 1-0 loss last 4 matches.
  • 1-0-0-0 goals scored recently.
  • Unbeaten at home but only 1-0 goals scored last 2 matches.
  • No opponent has led at halftime at home.
  • 6/8 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
  • 6 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.

Burnley - 17th

  • 3 1-0 defeats and a 1-0 win last 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 0-1 defeats away.
  • 3/4 away goals scored came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market is emphatic. 3/4 goals from Liverpool, a goal at least before halftime but let's look at recent form. Liverpool have failed to score in 3 matches and are playing a Burnley who are very tough to score against.
  • If Burnley score, they may not score a 2nd goal so that is a ready angle.

SPANISH LA LIGA

18:00 - Valencia v Osasuna - 2.05 Valencia

Valencia - 14th

  • Only 1 win in 9 matches came last away match 0-1 v Valladolid.
  • No win in 4 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 9 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Only 1 match v the bottom 2, a 1-1 draw v 20th.
  • 9/13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Osasuna - 19th

  • 4 draws and a loss last 5 matches.
  • 2 draws and a loss last 3 away matches.
  • No win in 12 and in 8 away.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • Only away win came v 9th - newly promoted Cadiz.
  • 6 goals conceded away came 46th-60th minute.

Conclusions

  • Only 1 win in 9 plays only 1 away win.
  • Valencia have conceded last 9 matches. Will they again? But then Osasuna have no win in 12 and 8 away!
  • 2 poor sides who look untrustworthy. Leave to in-play stats.

20:30 - Eibar v Atletico Madrid - 1.70 Atletico Madrid

Eibar - 15th

  • Only 2 wins in 11 matches.
  • Scored in their last 6 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, 4 at fulltime.
  • Not led at halftime at home yet.
  • Not beaten the top 5 home or away. At home, 1-3 loss v 2nd.
  • 6/8 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Atletico Madrid - 1st

  • Only 1 loss v Real Madrid.
  • 12 wins and a loss last 13 matches.
  • No draw in 13 and in 6 away.
  • All wins v 5th-19th home and away.
  • 7/10 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Eibar may keep it tight to halftime but 2nd half is where Atletico Madrid tend to score so watch for that pattern.

PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA

20:15 - Guimaraes v Nacional - 1.61 Guimaraes

Guimaraes - 6th

  • 2-3 loss and a 2-2 last 2 matches.
  • 4-2-2 goals scored last 3 matches.
  • Loss, Loss, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • 3 of 4 defeats this season came v the top 4.
  • 2 wins at home were 1-0.

Nacional - 14th

  • 5 defeats last 6 matches.
  • No win in 4 away.
  • Failed to score last 3 away.
  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.
  • Not scored a 2nd goal away.

Conclusions

  • Although not in electric recent form, Guimaraes only tend to lose to the top 4 and that seals it for them today given Nacional have yet to beat a top 9 side home or away.

TURKISH SUPER LIG

13:00 - BB Erzurumspor v Alanyaspor - 1.67 Alanyaspor

Erzurum - 19th

  • Only 4 wins but they all came away and were either 1-2 or 1-3 as with the last match.
  • So...no win at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 home match v the top 10.
  • 10/14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Alanyaspor - 6th

  • Only 2 wins in 9 matches came at home.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • Losses away v 18th and 21st and play 19th today.
  • 5 goals scored away in the last 15 minutes of matches.

Conclusions

  • What an odd team Erzurum are. 1-2 or 1-3 wins away but cannot buy a win at home.
  • Both teams could score today and I would personally not discount Erzurum given Alanyaspor's away form is a bit iffy, 5 consecutive defeats and defeats v the bottom 4 (who they play today).
  • Watch out for 2nd half goals.

13:00 - Karagumruk v Besiktas - 1.91 Besiktas

Karagumruk - 8th

  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Scored and conceded last 8 matches and last 7 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Scored first in 7/9 at home.
  • Only played one of the top 6 at home, a 2-1 win v 4th.
  • Scored and conceded v the top 5.
  • 6/8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Besiktas - 1st

  • 9 wins, a loss and a draw last 11 matches.
  • 7 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Scored in their last 14 and last 9 away.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 matches.
  • More vulnerable away. Loss v 3rd, Draw v 5th, Loss v 6th, Loss v 14th.
  • Have scored and conceded away v the top 14.
  • 8 goals conceded away last 15 minutes of matches.

Conclusions

  • Despite 7 clean sheets in 8 for Besiktas, both sides are showing scoring and conceding patterns.
  • Besiktas are more vulnerable away but their recent form is extremely strong and may swing things in their favour.

16:00 - Ankaragucu v Kasimpasa - 2.30 Ankaragucu

Ankaragucu - 20th

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • Wins at home v 5th, 11th and 14th.
  • 5 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Kasimpasa - 15th

  • Only 1 win in 6 matches came last away match.
  • Conceded in their last 8 and last 9 away.
  • Not played the bottom 4 away.

Conclusions

  • Not a match for me to dwell upon with 2 sides in poor form. Only 2 clean sheets for Ankaragucu suggests this will not end 0-0.

16:00 - Sivasspor v Fenerbahce - 2.15 Fenerbahce

Sivasspor - 12th

  • 3 score draws and a win last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches came v 1st in the league.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
  • v top 3 at home, did beat 3rd 2-1 but not played 1st or 2nd at home.
  • Only 2 home wins came v 3rd and 18th.
  • 5 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Fenerbahce - 2nd

  • 5 consecutive wins, scoring 4-3-2-3-3 goals.
  • 6 wins and a loss last 7 away matches.
  • No draw in 15 and in 7 away matches.
  • 2 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • 100% wins away v 9th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Both sides are in excellent recent form and scoring 2+ goals in ultra recent matches so this may be a competitive affair as the market suggests. For Fenerbahce? 100% wins v 9th and lower away.
  • In-play stats for me as I simply can't discount this form Sivasspor side.