DRT Daily Research Bulletin, January 21, 2021

No video at the moment until I leave Thai immigration. A small selection of matches today but I hope there will be some readability and tradeability.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
20:00 - Liverpool v Burnley - 1.18 Liverpool
Liverpool - 4th
- 3 draws and a 1-0 loss last 4 matches.
- 1-0-0-0 goals scored recently.
- Unbeaten at home but only 1-0 goals scored last 2 matches.
- No opponent has led at halftime at home.
- 6/8 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
- 6 goals scored last 15 mins of home matches.
Burnley - 17th
- 3 1-0 defeats and a 1-0 win last 4 matches.
- 2 consecutive 0-1 defeats away.
- 3/4 away goals scored came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- The market is emphatic. 3/4 goals from Liverpool, a goal at least before halftime but let's look at recent form. Liverpool have failed to score in 3 matches and are playing a Burnley who are very tough to score against.
- If Burnley score, they may not score a 2nd goal so that is a ready angle.
SPANISH LA LIGA
18:00 - Valencia v Osasuna - 2.05 Valencia
Valencia - 14th
- Only 1 win in 9 matches came last away match 0-1 v Valladolid.
- No win in 4 at home.
- Conceded in their last 9 at home.
- 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
- Only 1 match v the bottom 2, a 1-1 draw v 20th.
- 9/13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Osasuna - 19th
- 4 draws and a loss last 5 matches.
- 2 draws and a loss last 3 away matches.
- No win in 12 and in 8 away.
- Conceded in their last 6 away.
- Only away win came v 9th - newly promoted Cadiz.
- 6 goals conceded away came 46th-60th minute.
Conclusions
- Only 1 win in 9 plays only 1 away win.
- Valencia have conceded last 9 matches. Will they again? But then Osasuna have no win in 12 and 8 away!
- 2 poor sides who look untrustworthy. Leave to in-play stats.
20:30 - Eibar v Atletico Madrid - 1.70 Atletico Madrid
Eibar - 15th
- Only 2 wins in 11 matches.
- Scored in their last 6 matches.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home, 4 at fulltime.
- Not led at halftime at home yet.
- Not beaten the top 5 home or away. At home, 1-3 loss v 2nd.
- 6/8 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
Atletico Madrid - 1st
- Only 1 loss v Real Madrid.
- 12 wins and a loss last 13 matches.
- No draw in 13 and in 6 away.
- All wins v 5th-19th home and away.
- 7/10 goals scored away came 2nd half.
Conclusions
- Eibar may keep it tight to halftime but 2nd half is where Atletico Madrid tend to score so watch for that pattern.
PORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA
20:15 - Guimaraes v Nacional - 1.61 Guimaraes
Guimaraes - 6th
- 2-3 loss and a 2-2 last 2 matches.
- 4-2-2 goals scored last 3 matches.
- Loss, Loss, Win, Loss at home recently.
- 3 of 4 defeats this season came v the top 4.
- 2 wins at home were 1-0.
Nacional - 14th
- 5 defeats last 6 matches.
- No win in 4 away.
- Failed to score last 3 away.
- Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.
- Not scored a 2nd goal away.
Conclusions
- Although not in electric recent form, Guimaraes only tend to lose to the top 4 and that seals it for them today given Nacional have yet to beat a top 9 side home or away.
TURKISH SUPER LIG
13:00 - BB Erzurumspor v Alanyaspor - 1.67 Alanyaspor
Erzurum - 19th
- Only 4 wins but they all came away and were either 1-2 or 1-3 as with the last match.
- So...no win at home.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- 4 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
- Scored and conceded in all bar 1 home match v the top 10.
- 10/14 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Alanyaspor - 6th
- Only 2 wins in 9 matches came at home.
- 5 consecutive away defeats.
- Losses away v 18th and 21st and play 19th today.
- 5 goals scored away in the last 15 minutes of matches.
Conclusions
- What an odd team Erzurum are. 1-2 or 1-3 wins away but cannot buy a win at home.
- Both teams could score today and I would personally not discount Erzurum given Alanyaspor's away form is a bit iffy, 5 consecutive defeats and defeats v the bottom 4 (who they play today).
- Watch out for 2nd half goals.
13:00 - Karagumruk v Besiktas - 1.91 Besiktas
Karagumruk - 8th
- 2 consecutive wins.
- Scored and conceded last 8 matches and last 7 at home.
- 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
- Scored first in 7/9 at home.
- Only played one of the top 6 at home, a 2-1 win v 4th.
- Scored and conceded v the top 5.
- 6/8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Besiktas - 1st
- 9 wins, a loss and a draw last 11 matches.
- 7 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Scored in their last 14 and last 9 away.
- 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 matches.
- More vulnerable away. Loss v 3rd, Draw v 5th, Loss v 6th, Loss v 14th.
- Have scored and conceded away v the top 14.
- 8 goals conceded away last 15 minutes of matches.
Conclusions
- Despite 7 clean sheets in 8 for Besiktas, both sides are showing scoring and conceding patterns.
- Besiktas are more vulnerable away but their recent form is extremely strong and may swing things in their favour.
16:00 - Ankaragucu v Kasimpasa - 2.30 Ankaragucu
Ankaragucu - 20th
- 3 consecutive defeats.
- Win, Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home recently.
- Only 2 clean sheets.
- Conceded in their last 7 matches.
- 3 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
- Wins at home v 5th, 11th and 14th.
- 5 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.
Kasimpasa - 15th
- Only 1 win in 6 matches came last away match.
- Conceded in their last 8 and last 9 away.
- Not played the bottom 4 away.
Conclusions
- Not a match for me to dwell upon with 2 sides in poor form. Only 2 clean sheets for Ankaragucu suggests this will not end 0-0.
16:00 - Sivasspor v Fenerbahce - 2.15 Fenerbahce
Sivasspor - 12th
- 3 score draws and a win last 4 matches.
- Only 1 loss in 9 matches came v 1st in the league.
- 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
- v top 3 at home, did beat 3rd 2-1 but not played 1st or 2nd at home.
- Only 2 home wins came v 3rd and 18th.
- 5 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Fenerbahce - 2nd
- 5 consecutive wins, scoring 4-3-2-3-3 goals.
- 6 wins and a loss last 7 away matches.
- No draw in 15 and in 7 away matches.
- 2 consecutive away clean sheets.
- 100% wins away v 9th and lower.
Conclusions
- Both sides are in excellent recent form and scoring 2+ goals in ultra recent matches so this may be a competitive affair as the market suggests. For Fenerbahce? 100% wins v 9th and lower away.
- In-play stats for me as I simply can't discount this form Sivasspor side.