DRT Daily Research Bulletin, June 1, 2017
Well of course I select 7-0 and 9-0 and those pesky Italians win 8-0. Some good finnish trades. Lay the late 0-0 VPS match. 2 very late goals secured. HJK ended their run of 0-0's with 4 before halftime. IFK scored first first half. Knowing RoPS are strong 2nd half scorers, I hope you got involved there. RoPS scored 2nd half and the draw sequence ended. No luck as JJK played out a 0-0. Ilves had another over 2.5 goals home match.
Tennis was rather good too. I was green screen all day. Just one of those days. The one I redded up on, Muguruza, went on to win the match! I will be tennis trading again on Twitter @drtclub. I hope you are profiting. I had a particularly profitable day yesterday. More today please!
18:00 - Atvidaberg v Varberg - 2.64 Atvitabergs
- Varberg have won the 2 recent head to heads.
- This is 14th v 9th Swedish Superettan.
- Only 2 wins.
- 1-2, 1-1,1-2, 1-1 at home.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Scored and conceded as you can see in all home matches.
- 100% over 1.5 goals.
- 2 consecutive defeats.
- Not won away.
- 3 draws in 4 away matches, 2 0-0's.
- Varberg are unbeaten v teams below them.
- I would fancy Varberg today on form. I would lay Atvidaberg if Atvidaberg score first. Note the home side's scoring and conceding at home without winning.
- Expect 2 goals at least today if the home side's over 1.5 goal pattern continues.
18:00 - Norrkoping v AIK - 2.06 Norrkoping
- Norrkoping won the last home head to head. AIK tend to come out the best historically.
- This is 2nd v 6th in the Swedish Allsvenskan. AIK have played a match less so could go 2nd with a win today and a win with their game in hand.
- 6 wins and 2 draws in their last 8 matches.
- 3 wins and a 0-0 last 4 at home.
- Not played top 6 at home but lost to 7th at home.
- No opponent has led at halftime at home.
- 5 1-0 scorelines and a 0-0 in their last 6 matches. The last 1-0 was a defeat.
- 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Have yet to concede 2 goals in a match.
- No away 0-0.No 0-0 at halftime away.
- Led at halftime in all aways.
- If AIK lose only 0-1 to Malmo, and keep 5 clean sheets prior to that, then we should expect another tight match. Norrkoping are yet to meet top 6 at home and they do have goals in them but AIK are keeping teams from scoring that 2nd goal.
- If that pattern continues, lay Norrkoping if Norrkoping scored first.
- Incongruous halftime stats so leaving that market alone. 0-0 might be in play here but I note AIK have led at halftime in all aways
David Ferrer v Feliciano Lopez - 1.65 Ferrer
- 32nd v 40th in the rankings.
- Ferrer has won 8 of the last 9 head to heads.
- 6 of the last 8 matches saw both players take a set at least.
- This is a match to lay any 2-0 set leader if we get to 2-0. I think this could be a 5 - setter today so lay any 2-1 set leader too?
John Isner v Paolo Lorenzi - 1.39 Isner
- 24th v 38th so rankings are tight.
- No head to heads.
- 20 tie breakers for Big John in his last 12 matches tells you all about him.
- Big John had a great Rome where he reached the semi finals but, like Big Ivo, the better quality players can break Big John.
- Lorenzi beat 212th ranked player in the first leg so little to gain form wise here.
- His loss in straight sets to Kevin Anderson, another big player, may mark his card today.
- I would be laying any Lorenzi lead here today. Similarly, with tie breakers, it is whoever wins the key points. We may see Big John's odds rise and I would be keen to back him with a decent odds rise today.
Konstantin Kravchuk v Marin Cilic - 1.03 Cilic
- 93rd v 8th.
- These 2 have not met since 2007.
- Kravchuk is a Challenger player.
- It is a simple approach for me. I initially lay Cilic at 1.04 (see Tsonga's match for the reason why!).
- I would be happy backing Cilic at 1.25 or thereabouts if he gets in trouble early on.
Nicolas Almagro v Del Potro - 1.24 Del Potro
- 57th v 33rd.
- Del Potro has won the last 3 head to heads, most recently in 2016 on hard.
- A predicted tight clash with Baggy saw Almagro through in 4 sets.
- Almagro did retire in Rome so may have a niggle.
- Del Potro was poor v Elias, as we know last week but has only been stopped largely by Novak Djokovic of late.
- I certainly do not see an Almagro 3-0 here.
- Despite the rankings, Del Potro is on the rise. He is where he is because of a long absence with injury.
- I would be with him today in this match.
Andy Murray v Martin Klizan - 1.09 Murray
- 1st v 59th.
- 3 set win for Murray in 2016.
- 4 set win for Murray in his opener. Is his blip over? 2 consecutive defeats to Coric and Fognini all forgotten?
- Klizan came through a 5 setter v Lokoli - 273rd in the world.
- We expect a Murray win today and any decent rise in Murray odds should be taken.
Jeremy Chardy v Kei Nishikori - 1.28 Kei
- 70th v 7th in the rankings.
- Chardy is French so note that. He may be galvanised.
- 4 consecutive wins for Kei in head to heads, latterly in Australia in 2016 in 3 straight sets.
- Chardy has played in 2 Challenger events prior to this French Open,final and round of 16. Uninspiring stuff.
- Nishikori took a while to suss out Kokkanakis but came through with 3 consecutive set wins after losing the first.
- I would be backing Kei if his odds rise to 1.8 or thereabouts. The only thing Chardy has on his side is French support. remember the last Grand Slam was a 3-0 to Kei.
Karen Khachanov v Tomas Berdych - 1.3 Berdych
- 56th v 13th.
- No head to heads.
- 4 set win for Karen in the opener. Berdych had an easy time v Struff, losing the obligatory 3rd set.
- Both players lost to Tsonga in Lyon, Karen in the quarter finals and Tomas in the Final.
- I cannot see Berdych losing. He may take his eye off the ball if 2-0 ahead.
- I am with Berdych throughout this match.
Stan Wawrinka v Dolgopolov - 1.17 Stan
- 3rd v 82nd.
- Dolgopolov won the last 2 head to heads, albeit a walk over in 2013 and in Miami in 2014.
- I predict an uncomfortable afternoon for Stan. Dolgo is simply unpredictable - he failed to get out of qualifying in Madrid and reached the round of 64 in Rome.
- He may make Stan work. Stan won in Geneva but he showed in losing to, and then beating, Paire in consecutive matches that he can put in a few howlers.
- Is Stan layable at 1.18? I would prefer and hope he wins the first set as I would lay him then to reduce the liability.Agut and Almagro have beaten Dolgopolov in straight sets recently.
- I would be with Stan throughout if the real Dolgopolov consents to turn up. Remember this is a player who beat Nadal in Monte Carlo in the past.
Hyeon Chung v Denis Istomin - 1.32 Chung
- 94th v 73rd.
- Chung is not a household name but he has put together a recent good run.
- He beat Istomin 6-4 6-4 in 2017 in Barcelona.
- He beat Sam Querrey in the opener, a good scalp as Querrey was the better ranked.
- A quarter finalist in Barcelona, he took Nadal to a tie breaker but lost in 2.
- A semi final in Munich, and lost to Berdych in Lyon.
- Istomin's form in comparison is poor. He retired in the qualifier in Rome.
- There is nothing to suggest an Istomin win here today so that is how I play this. I with with Chung if his odds drift.