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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, March 19, 2015

Very non-committal markets today for the 2nd legs of these Europa League matches. As ever, our cues will be taken from the away goals in particular which were scored in the first legs.

2:45pm - Olympiakos v Asteras Tripolis  - 1.34 home

Standout Stats

  • 2014 head to heads saw Asteras win 2-1 at home and a 0-0. The 2-1 win came courtesy of a very late Asteras winner.
  • This is 1st v 4th in the Greek Super League. Olympiakos are on equal points with Panathanaikos but have 2 games in hand

Oly

  • 6 match home winning streak
  • Have scored in their last 13 matches at home
  • 2 consecutive home clean sheets
  • Scored 2+ goals in all matches at home outside of the top 5 - playing 4th today and only scored 1 goal v 2nd and 3rd
  • Only 3 losses all season and 1 loss in their last 15 matches only.
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 6 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 7 clean sheets in their last 9 matches.
  • No 0-0 at home

Asteras Tripolis.

  • No win in 6 away matches
  • Failed to score in their last 3 away matches
  • All away wins have come v the bottom 4 sides.
  • Yet to play the top 2 away and drew 0-0 with 3rd
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Olympiakos score 2+ goals v teams outside the top 5 and only 1 v teams in the top 5. They meet 4th today, a team already managing a 0-0 v Oly this season. This could be a tough encounter for Olympiakos and the 1.34 does not appeal as a backing price.
  • Oly have kept 7 clean sheets in their last 9 matches so this could be a case of 1-0 being ok for Oly as it was for PAOK yesterday.  Asteras are unbeaten v top 3 this season, albeit 2 0-0's, a 1-0 and a 3-0 home win v PAOK.
  • A tough(ish) night awaits for Oly and if  0-0 for a while I would do as I did with PAOK yesterday and hope for a goal, however late it may come.
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17:00 UK Dynamo Moscow v Napoli - 2.5 away

Standout Stats

  • 3-1 to Napoli at home in the Europa League ( EL) but careless in conceding that away goal.

Dynamo Moscow

  • 2 consecutive losses now after a run of 19 unbeaten.
  • 10 wins and a 1-1 draw in their last 11 home matches.
  • The away loss to Napoli was the first defeat in 14 away EL matches.
  • 2 draws and 4 wins at home in the EL.

Napoli

  • Only 1 win in 5 matches was against Moscow.
  • 2-0 loss to Verona recently may be down to team changes with one eye on this match.
  • Only 1 win in 5 away matches.
  • 5 wins and a 0-0 in their last 6 EL matches.
  • 2 consecutive away clean sheets in the EL but have struggled historically away in the EL with only 3 wins in 14 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • 3-1 home leg saw Napoli strong odds on. Now the market has changed completely. Dynamo Moscow must score 2 goals to bring the match to parity on aggregate. If Napoli score an away goal, it should be game over. 0-0 therefore all Napoli need, They can tolerate a 1-0 .
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18:00 UK Dynamo Kiev v Everton - 2.05 home

Standout Stats

  • A 2-1 home win for Everton from the first leg of this Europa League ( EL)  fixture. Alas they conceded they away goal.

Dynamo Kiev

  • Only 2 losses in 16 matches but 10 of those matches were friendlies.
  • Only 1 loss in 25 home matches was against Basel
  • No draw in 9 matches in the EL and a draw will suit Everton today
  • 7 wins in 9 home EL matches saw defeats to Genk and Everton

Everton

  • 2 consecutive wins now v Kiev and Newcastle came at home.
  • 8 defeats, 2 wins and a draw in their last 11 away matches in all competitions.
  • 5 wins and a loss to Krasnador in the EL. What a contrast with Premiership form.
  • 0-2 away v Wolfsburg and 1-4 away v Young Boys catch the eye.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I am taken by Everton's form in the EL as compared with their form domestically where they have been all over the place.  Is this enough for them to continue on? Permutations required - Dynamo Kiev need a 1-0 win to go through. Everton need a 0-0 bare minimum to proceed and of course if they score first things really will be in their favour.
  • This could be tight therefore, so crucial is the first goal scored.  Back 0-0 pre-match and hope for a concerted period of 0-0?
  • I do get the impression Everton should go through, in whatever way. Their EL form does catch the eye.
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18:00 UK Roma v Fiorentina - 2.05 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-1 from the first leg of this Europa League tie ( EL) sees advantage Roma with that away goal.

Roma

  • Have been in dire form overall recently with 6 draws in 7 matches ending with a 0-2 loss v Sampdoria.
  • Roma have effectively handed the title to Juventus on a silver platter with their recent draw sequence so you'd think that the Europa League might be seen as a season-salvager.
  • Only 2 wins in 15 matches proves how destructive the drawitis has been
  • No win in 11 home matches in all competitions.
  • Only 1 win in 7 EL matches was away at Feyenoord. 3 1-1's in their last 4 EL matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 13 of their last 14 home matches, albeit this is spread through 2005, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2015
  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws at home

Fiorentina

  • Only 1 loss in 16 matches was a 4-0 away to Lazio. Good 2-1 home win v AC milan at the weekend saw Fiorentina come frombehind.
  • Only 3 away defeats in 19 matches in all competitions.
  • Only 2 losses in 19 EL matches came against Juventus at home and Dinamo Minsk at home.
  • Have not lost an away EL match since 2007. Tactics seem to be spot on!

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I did it at the weekend. Layed the draw in the Roma match from a purely sequential perspective. 2 1-1's now in the EL. Can we lay the draw today? A draw does not suit either team ( albeit a 2-2 draw will see Fiorentina through on the away goals rule)>
  • The form side is Fiorentina here who rested players at the weekend and still came from behind to beat AC Milan.
  • I would side with Fiorentina on form. If Roma score first, I will lay them.
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20:05 UK Besiktas v Club Brugge - 1.91 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-1 to Club Brugge in the home leg of this Europa League ( EL match) saw Club Brugge come from behind to win.
  • Club Brugge's last goal was a penalty.

Besiktas

  • A 5-1 home win after that defeat to Club Brugge will boost Besiktas's confidence and you feel they are not out of this at all. They have the away goal. Brugge's winner was a penalty.
  • Besiktas are unbeaten in 6 home matches.
  • 2 losses in 10 EL matches were away defeats to Liverpool and Brugge.
  • Unbeaten in 5 home EL matches.2 consecutive 1-0 wins at home v Spurs and Liverpool.

Club Brugge

  • Only 2 defeats  since 28th August 2014.
  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • Only 2 losses in 22 away matches came v Kortrijk and Gent
  • Undefeated in 14 EL matches.
  • 5 wins and a 0-0 v Torino in the last 6 away matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in the last 6 away EL matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • This is an intriguing match, but that doesn't mean I can get an angle in. I can put a good argument up for both sides. Besiktas have the away goal so will be very motivated , especially after scoring 5 at home in their league match prior to this match. The Brugge goal was a penalty to get the winner.
  • Club Brugge are in superb form domestically and in the Europa League. This would have to be opinion based rather than form based. I would lay Brugge if they scored first. Why? Because Besiktas , with just one goal, should go through. That away goal is a big motivator.
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20:05 UK Inter Milan v Wolfsburg - 2.5 away

Standout Stats

  • A very well deserved 3-1 home win for the Wolf continued their sparkling scoring stats in all competitions. Do note that Inter Milan have that precious away goal which is key.
  • This is the 2nd leg of the Europa League ( EL)

Inter Milan

  • No win in 4 matches. Scored and conceded in their last 3 matches including that Wolfsburg match.
  • A real concerted effort at home in 2015 to keep things tight. Inter have conceded 1-0-1-0-0-1-1 in recent home matches in all competitions.
  • But they have only scored 1-0-1 in their last 3 home matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 7 EL matches were agaisnt Dnipro and Celtic at home.
  • At home in the El, things look up. 4 2014 wins and a 0-0 in the last 5 home matches. Inter scored 6-2-0-2-1 and kept 4 clean sheets. They will need to keep a clean sheet today and score 2 to go through on the away goals rule in the quickest way possible.

Wolfsburg

  • Schurrle the big signing for the Wolf lately.
  • 13 wins in their last 16 matches saw 2 draws and a 1-0 loss so in cracking form , mostly domestically.
  • 3-5-2-2-0-5-2-0-3-3 scored in recent matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 10 away matches came in their last match.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 EL matches was agaisnt Everton.
  • 2-4 v Krasnador, 0-3 v Lille and 0-0 v Sporting ( after winning the earlier leg 2-0) in the 3 most recent away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Permutations? Inter need a 2-0 to go through on away goals in the quickest simplest way possible. Wolfsburg need a 0-0 bare minimum to oblige and a feeling the tie will be over with an away goal today
  • Inter Milan are likely to keep Wolfsburg to a single goal maximum if their recent home defensive record is anything to go by. I could see Wolfsburg do as they did v Sporting last time out and settle for a 0-0.  Wolfs can tolerate a 1-0 defeat and a 1-1 , 2-1 draw perfectly suits.
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20:05 UK Sevilla v Villarreal - 2.15 home

Standout Stats

  • A 1-3 win for Sevilla in the first leg of this Europa League tie suggests that Villareal need to "Do an Arsenal" albeit make it 0-3 rather than 0-2
  • I will not research this match as it is a match of permutations and is rather clear cut, particularly for Villareal.
  • With 3 away goals, Sevilla can afford to lose 0-2, just as Monaco did yesterday. Villareal need a 0-3 bare minimum to go through . If they let Sevilla score, then it will be sayonara you suspect.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Yesterday, I backed the 0-2 Arsenal scoreline and that might be something to do here.  We might get a swing in the odds with a 0-2 Villareal scoreline at some stage in the match.
  • Quite simply this is a containment job for Sevilla and a 0-2 will do just dandy. Sevilla are unbeaten in their last 7 home EL matches. Villareal have scored 2-2-3 in recent away EL matches, albeit v Zurich, Apollon and Salzburg.
  • Sevilla are currently 1.06 to lay TO QUALIFY and that appeals to me as a throwaway lay. Villareal are a very decent Spanish side and could surprise.
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20:05 UK Ajax v Dnipro - 2.15 home

Standout Stats

  • A 1-0 Dnipro win from the first leg of this Europa League match sees them not concede an away goal.
  • Ajax need a clean sheet today as they did not score an away goal.
  • Ajax do not have the best of records in the Europa League at home. LLWLW( L=Loss, W=Win)  The lost at home to Spartak Moscow, Man Utd and Salzburg at home and beat Steaua and Legia Warsaw.
  • No draws at home for Ajax in the Europa League.
  • Dnipro have done well in the Europa League against reasonable teams, beating St Etienne, Olympiakos, and Ajax and drawing at Olympiakos 2-2 after beating them at home.
  • Dnipro have scored and conceded in their last 3 EL away matches

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I think this is advantage Dnipro today . They have eye-catching Europa League form against reasonable teams. If Dnipro score today, Ajax will need 3 goals.  Ajax will go out attacking today so we may see an open match . I would venture towards a 2-2 correct score pre-match back just incase it is an open 2nd leg. 2-2 is at odds of 18.5 on Betfair. I may back it with a bookmaker or the sports book at better odds. Remember this is speculative so stakes should be in accordance with the odds.  If Dnipro score first, we will have a great chance for Ajax to score.
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20:05 UK Torino v Zenit St Petersburg - 2.5 away

Standout Stats

  • 2-0 to Zenit from the first leg of this Europa League match. The match turned on its head care of a Torino red card.

Torino

  • Torino are 9th in Seria A for a reason but they have lost 3 consecutive matches now. Torino have failed to score in 2 matches, including that Zenit match.
  • Only 3 losses in 17 matches at home for Torino is good form.
  • Only 2 losses in 13 matches in the Europa League were both away from home.
  • Torino are unbeaten in their Europa League  matches , but have only been in the competition since 2014 so are relatively new.
  • 2 consecutive home draws.

Zenit

  • 5 wins and a 1-1 draw for Zenit in their last 6 matches in all competitions. 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • 4 losses in 22 matches away from home, and 3 of them came in the Champions League. In Zenit's last 5 away losses, they failed to score.
  • No draw in 17 Europa League matches for Zenit.
  • Zenit last played away in the EL in 2011 and 2013, losing their last 4 matches. In 2015, they beat PSV

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Zenit have the Champions League experience and the advantage today of not conceding an away goal. Torino could have lost by a lot more so they have escaped lightly.
  • Torino are relatively new to the Europa League ( debut in 2014) and that may count against them.
  • The market is non committal. Torino need a 2-0 to regain parity in this match. If Zenit score an away goal, then Torino will need to score 4 to go through.
  • Expectation therefore is for Torino to really defend for their lives today as they must score first today.
  • I would personally favour Zenit to go through today based on their Champions League experience above a Europa League relative newcomer.
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