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3 elite leagues today but beware. The curse of the relegation six pointers! Udinese nearly did for Napoli; Crotone managed a draw v Juventus and kept them, statistically, limited to very few chances. We will be seeing a lot more coupon busters this April which is, to use a golfing term, 'moving day'. This is where the business gets decided. Promotion and relegation. Beware also of 'dead rubbers'. Teams such as PSV, PSG and Bayern Munich have already won their prospective titles and quite simply the fighting to win is switched off mentally when you simply do not need to win.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Burnley v Chelsea - 1.95 Chelsea

  • 1-1 and 2-3 Burnley last 2 head to heads.

Burnley (7th)

  • 5 consecutive wins, 4 of those were 2-1.
  • 2 losses, 2 draws, 2 wins last 6 at home so improving.
  • Conceded in their last 7 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (50%).
  • 1-0-1-0-1 scored at home v top 6 without a win.
  • 9 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Chelsea (5th)

  • Only 3 wins in their last 9 matches v West Brom, Palace and Southampton, all relegation strugglers.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (31%).
  • v top 11 away, have only lost to the top 2.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 away v top 8.

Conclusions

  • A feeling both teams will score today - look at Burnley conceding albeit in victory and Chelsea v top 8 away.
  • I think backing 2-1 and 1-2 might have legs today as a trading angle.
  • I think Chelsea's odds look far too short for me based on Burnley's excellent run but I suppose the market sees the 1-0-1-0-1 scored at home v top 6 without winning for Burnley. Can Burnley score that 2nd goal?

19:45 - Leicester v Southampton - 2.44 Leicester

  • 3-0 Southampton and 1-4 Leicester in the last 2 head to heads.

Leicester (8th)

  • I get the feeling it's holiday time at Leicester.
  • 2 consecutive 2-1 defeats but securing another season.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches winning only 2.
  • Scored in their last 7 at home and last 10 overall.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home - 12.5%.
  • Unbeaten home and away v bottom 4 albeit 3 1-1 draws at home.

Southampton (18th)

  • Only 1 win in 20 matches.
  • 4 consecutive defeats conceding 3 goals.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats conceding 3 goals.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away (25%).
  • Not beaten a top 15 side away.

Conclusions

  • We are entering must win territory for Southampton now. But they are struggling to keep a clean sheet and have yet to beat the top 15 away.
  • Both teams could score today.
  • 87.5% and 75% chances of a goal before halftime. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but remember this is relegation six pointer territory for Saints.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Utrecht v Groningen - 1.51 Utrecht

  • 2-3 Utrecht and 2-1 Groningen last 2 head to heads.

Utrecht (5th)

  • Unlikely to improve upon 5th spot. The only remaining motivation is to retain 5th spot.
  • 3-1-2-3-3-3 conceded recently. 2 of those matches were score draws!
  • No defeat in 12 at home though.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v 1st.
  • 14 of 20 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Groningen (13th)

  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • 9 away without a win.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away (27%).
  • Only 1 away win.
  • 2/3 goals conceded away v top 11.

Conclusions

  • Matches running out for Groningen but 7 points clear of relegation with a possible 9 points on offer suggests they will survive.
  • A match where 'am I bovvered?' springs to mind although Utrecht I suppose would like to retain 5th.
  • On form Utrecht could score 2/3 goals today v a Groningen tending to score - so lay Groningen if Groningen score first.
  • With an expectation for goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - Ajax v VVV - 1.14 Ajax

  • 0-3 and 0-2 Ajax last 2 head to heads.

Ajax (2nd)

  • PSV have won the title.
  • A win assures 2nd spot for Ajax.
  • No defeat in 10 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (33%).
  • 9 wins and a 0-0 at home v 8th and lower. In 7 of those matches, scored 3+ goals.
  • 28 of 38 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

VVV (12th)

  • No win in 10.
  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away 47%.
  • Lost to 1st away but all draws v 3rd-9th away.

Conclusions

  • Best case scenario for VVV would seem to be a draw. Best case for Ajax is a 3 goal haul. They will retain 2nd spot with a win today.
  • Ajax back if VVV score first. 3-1/any other home score is even an option (3-2 saver as well).

SPANISH LA LIGA

18:30 - Sociedad v Atletico Madrid - 2.32 Atl Madrid

  • 1-0 and 2-1 Atl Madrid last 2 head to heads.

Sociedad (11th)

  • A draw and 2 consecutive wins last 3 matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 4 wins in 5 at home.
  • No draw in 9 at home.
  • 8 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Have lost to all top 4 but loads of goals - 2-4, 2-1, 1-3, 5-2, 2-3, 2-1 scorelines.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Atl Madrid (2nd)

  • 4 points clear of 3rd spot at the moment.
  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 away matches.
  • Conceded in their last 4 away.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away (38%).
  • Only 3 losses came away v 1st, 6th and 16th, 2 were 1-0 losses.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 7th and lower.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • We usually get goal fests when Sociedad meet the top 4 - all defeats for Sociedad but they did score 2 goals on 3 occasions in defeat.
  • Let that be a possible angle for you today. If Sociedad score 2 goals they still might not win.
  • Sociedad are yet to have a 0-0 at halftime at home. The concern is that Atl Madrid tend towards 0-0 at halftime away. They have 38% 0-0's at halftime away.

18:30 - Alaves v Girona - 2.48 Alaves

  • The odds tell you all!
  • 2-3 Alaves last head to head.
  • Girona have another season in the top flight. Alaves need to dot the i's with a few more points.

Alaves (15th)

  • A draw and 2 consecutive wins.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 4 wins and a loss in the last 5 home matches.
  • Scored in their last 12 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home (50%).
  • Only 2 draws all season.
  • Wins at home v 7th, 8th and 10th but losses at home v other top 12.
  • 12 of 17 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Girona (9th)

  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 conceding 6-6-5 in those defeats albeit v Real Madrid, Sociedad and Barcelona.
  • Unbeaten away v 14th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Argument for Alaves given those wins v 7th, 8th and 10th at home BUT all other losses v top 12. 3 clean sheets sees them in recent good nick and they have scored last 12 at home. Goal from Alaves today?
  • They play a Girona safe from relegation but shipping 17 goals in 3 recent defeats. Far easier opponents today though and they are unbeaten v 14th and lower.
  • Hence the odds....an argument for both sides!! In play stats will tell all.

20:30 - Levante v Malaga - 1.86 Levante

  • 0-0 last head to head.

Levante (17th)

  • A draw and 2 2-1 wins at home recently.
  • Need more wins with 6 matches remaining.
  • Conceded in their last 6 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower albeit 5 draws and 2 wins v Las Palmas.

Malaga (20th)

  • Only 1 win since 18th December 2017.
  • 4 losses and a 0-0 last 5 away.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away (50%).
  • 19 of 27 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A relegation six pointer and on recent form Levante are the form side. Enough to side with them not to lose today?
  • Malaga are realistically relegated. They need to win all remaining matches and hope a few other sides lose all remaining matches.

20:30 - Betis v Las Palmas - 1.39 Betis

  • 4-1 and 1-0 Las Palmas last 2 head to heads. The market does not see a repeat.

Betis (5th)

  • 5 consecutive wins, 2 at home were 2-0 and 3-0.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home (19%).
  • Beaten all home teams 14th and lower. Only 1 home loss v 6th and lower tending to score 2+ goals.
  • 20 of 30 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Las Palmas (19th)

  • No win in 10 matches.
  • 5 losses in 6 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No win in 14 away.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away (44%).
  • All losses away v top 10.
  • 24 of 33 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • It looks as straightforward as the odds suggest. A home side in winning form meets an away side with no win in 10 and all defeats v top 10 away.
  • Of course there is the relegation six pointer element but Las Palmas need to improve hugely for the 3 points.
  • Strong 2nd half goals trends so fear not if 0-0 at halftime.