The Raonic lay came in, in a Canada v Canada affair. The Lay of Sock if he won the first set came in, as he lost the 2nd, but won the match. Chung was too good for Kudla so the lay of Chung first set winner did not oblige. A frustrating day as the players I expected to win, tended to win first sets (but lose 2nd sets) and thus negate a trading angle. I would suggest interest in the tennis as it fits the DRT criteria, is researchable, and the markets are liquid.
Today's your day, football wise, if you like a bit of action from the Egyptian Premier League (don't we all?), and the Azerbaijan 1st Division. The rather super Indian Super League has a match today. Super! And who can live without the Saudi Professional League?
The Taca De Portugal kicks off at 20:45 with Sertenanse v Benfica and Benfica are 1.09 favourites.
This match should be of interest. There is a huge gap in the leagues. I cannot gauge Sertenanse as they have not met top flight sides. 8 wins, a 3-3 draw and a 2-2 (going out in extra time) for Benfica suggests to me that they are up for the cup. Expectation from 1.09 shots is for a breakthrough before halftime so if 0-0 20 minutes, start getting interested in the halftime back of Benfica (if the market is liquid). I hope you get something from the tennis today, if only to paper trade after the result is known and ask 'was there an angle in?' My hands are tied I'm afraid with the gap between International Football and the return of League Football.
ATP EUROPEAN TOUR - ANTWERP - INDOOR HARD
Cameron Norrie v Diego Schwartzman - 1.62 Diego
- Norrie's match yesterday was too difficult for the market to discern, but he won in 2 sets.
- 114th v 26th. The rankings are win the market here.
- 3 consecutive defeats for Diego on hard/indoor hard, albeit v solid yardsticks Nishikori, Medvedev and Querrey.
- No head to heads so a case of faith in the market and the rankings to suggest a lay of Norrie if Norrie wins the first set.
Salvatore Caruso v Ilya Ivashka - 1.33 Ilya
- 204 v 231st in the rankings. Can we really trust players outside of the top 200?
- This for me is a natural lay of Ivashka, a player I don't know, based purely on the fact that, at 231st in the world, he logically lacks consistency. He did beat Robin Haase here, ranked 42, and is 3/3 here including qualifiers so has momentum. The win v Haase was care of 2 tie breakers i.e. Ilya won the key points!
- 3 consecutive 3 setters for Caruso suggests some fight. So either lay Ilya at the off or hope Ilya wins the first set so we can, at least, reduce our liabilities (recommended when dealing with low ranked players).
Gael Monfils v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.67 Monfils
- Bonjour Rodney. A bonnet de douche! An all-French encounter.
- 46th v 15th.
- 5-2 on hard in Tsonga's favour. Monfils is 2-0 most recent encounters, albeit back in 2016.
- A key factor for me is Tsonga's retirement in Montpellier very recently. Since then, he lost in Metz and won in 3 sets in Antwerp. Is he 100% fit? He will need to be against Gael Monfils.
- Monfils last 3 defeats were 3 setters. I would have to lay the first set winner, preference if that first set winner is Monfils. Do note in head to heads though, there has only been 1 3 set match in 8 head to heads! That is the slight niggle.
Kyle Edmund v Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.26 Edmund
- 50th v 23rd.
- No head to heads.
- A productive hard season for Kyle, with quarters in Winstom-Salem, semis in Beijing and quarter finals in Shanghai.
- Is that form transferable to the indoor hard?
- In Beijing and Shanghai, Albert was halted first round v 11th and 74th.
- Kyle is seeded 1 here in Antwerp. If his hard court momentum continues into the indoor hard, then he should go deep in this tournament. I expect a win and will react if Albert wins the first set.
Oscar Otte v Tennys Sandgren - 1.41 Tennys
- 131st v 96th so on rankings it could be tighter than the odds suggest.
- Otte is largely a Challenger Tour player. 3/3 here in Stockholm includes qualifiers. Beating Jurgen Zopp in consecutive matches (163rd).
- Sandgren lost to 214th ranked in his last tournament so for me is not dependable at 1.41 odds. Layable, better still at lower odds if winning the first set.
Lukas Lacko v Fabio Fognini - 1.38 Fognini
- 92nd v 27th.
- Foggy won the 2014 head to head.
- A good hard campaign in Asia for Foggy saw Final in Chengdu, albeit with Tomic reaching said final there may not have been much strength in depth.
- Semi final in Beijing with a Del Potro walk over suggesting possible injury niggle for Foggy?
- 7 defeats in 9 on hard for Lacko is poor stuff.
- I looked on tennisexplorer.com injury list but Foggy did not appear. He appears on a 'returning players' list.
- There is a question mark therefore about Foggy. If fully fit his recent hard court momentum suggests an easy assignment v a poor-form player. If you want a value angle, then gamble on Foggy potentially being a bit foggy post retirement last match. Lay him at the off, or better yet, shorter odds if winning first set.
Fernando Verdasco v Philipp Kohlschreiber - 1.76 Verdasco
- 2 old war horses meet and no wonder Verdasco is a tentative favourite.
- 35th v 29th. Tightly ranked.
- Last head to head was 2010. 6 of 9 head to heads have required a deciding set.
- Kohl's recent form is strong. In the US Open, he beat Alex Zverev. He took 3 sets though to beat Alex de Minaur in his opener here.
- I'd have to default to laying the first set winner.
John Isner v Bradley Klahn - 1.34 Isner
- Top seed Big John is 17th v 214th Klahn.
- These 2 met at the US Open this year, a 3 set win for Big John after a tight tie breaker first set.
- That was Big John's last tournament. Is he fit? Is this an injury induced break? Or a normal break to re-charge?
- If Isner is not coming back from injury (he is not on any injury list) and is not ring rusty, he should take this in straight sets.
- Note 2 of Klahn's recent wins have been 3 setters so he is unlikely to win 2-0 if winning the first set.
Ernests Gulbis v Denis Shapovalov - 1.52 Denis
- 200th v 51st.
- 3/3 for Gulbis in Stockholm saw him getting through qualifiers.
- Denis beat Polansky in 3 sets.
- Little form to work with. On rankings we should be with Denis.
WTA LUXEMBOURG OPEN
Vera Lapko v Belinda Bencic - 1.7 Bencic
- 135th 98th.
- Only 1 head to head on indoor hard this year went to Lapko in 3 sets. 1-6, 6-1, 6-0. Very strange result.
- Bencic has had to win 5 matches to get here.
- Not for me this one. A very strange head to head result must have had a back-story? Injury for Bencic after first set?
Margarita Gasparyan v Dayana Yastremska - 1.84 Dayana
- Gasparyan has no ranking at matchstat.
- Both players are in good hard court form. Albeit this is indoor hard.
- Margarita won in Tashkent, quarters in Linz, and 2 2 set wins here.
- Dayana has just won the tournament in Hong Kong. She beat 35th ranked in the semi final and 45th ranked in the Final. Not only that but she beat Garbine Muguruza last match here. Mug is no mug, being as she is 2nd in the world.
- On the information to hand, we note both players in decent nick on hard but I am personally taken by a recent consistency for Dayana in beating top ranked players on a variant of this surface. I am with her today.
Julia Goerges v Donna Vekic - 1.51 Goerges
- Julia Goerges is my new ex-wife!
- Seeded first here in Luxembourg. 14th v 54th -she has the ranking to back that up and has been improving.
- 2 straight sets wins for Julia in head to heads, and ultra recent head to heads at that.
- The last 4 tournaments for these 2 sees identical form. Check it out here https://matchstat.com/tennis/h2h-odds-bets/Julia%20Goerges/Donna%20Vekic
- I would be with Julia not to lose 2-0 here. Based more on head to head rather than any recent form which, as you see, is identical to Vekic's in the same last 4 tournaments.
Eugenie Bouchard v Andrea Petkovic - 1.83 Petkovic
- Head to heads are emphatic. 1-4 to Petkovic.
- 82nd v 99th in the rankings. Bouchard has been heading the wrong way for some time.
- 3 setter on hard to Petkovic most recent head to head saw similar odds to today. A cue to lay the first set winner?
- Bouchard has had to get through qualifying to get here.
- 2 semi finals in her last 4 on hard for Petkovic is good stuff so I would be far keener to lay Eugenie if she wins the first set.