The success with the tennis has been a narrower focus. I have not researched all matches, only those I think are readable. The number of football matches increases tomorrow. I will try and tweet the tennis today for the matches I have researched.
18:00 - Djurgardens v Orebro - 1.57 Djurgardens
- 9 matches into the season.
- Why are Djurgardens favourite?
- 3 losses in their last 4 matches. Only 3 wins all season.
- Draw, Win, Loss, Win at home for Djurgardens.
- Orebro went unbeaten in their first 7 matches and were only beaten by Hammarby last match.
- 2-1-2-3-4-1 goals scored by Orebro recently.
- Djurgarden did score 4-2-4 goals v Orebro in head to heads. That is the only reason to side with them today.
- On form, we go against the market and with Orebro not to lose. On head to heads, the market expects Djurgardens, despite dire season form, to continue winning ways v Orebro.
GERMAN DIVISION 1 PLAY-OFF
19:30 - Wolfsburg v Holstein Kiel - 2.06 Wolfsburg
- And so the relegation play-offs begin in Germany.
- Wolfsburg we know are where they are because of the draws they have had this season in the Bundesliga.
- At home , though, it must be noted that they lost only 1 match v teams 9th and lower. They did score and conceded at home v 13th and lower.
- 3-1-4 goals scored at home by the Wolf v the bottom 4. Can we assume that the Wolf's form v bottom 4 can translate to top 4 in the German First division?
- Holstein Kiel finished 3rd in the first division. Holstein Kiel scored and conceded away v the top 13 teams and v the top 7 away, they were unbeaten.
- How do we evaluate their form in this lesser division?
- This is the first of 2 legs. I am more taken by Wolfsburg's home form, in a better league, v 9th and lower and would expect them not to lose. That is how I would approach this match.
Daria Kasatkina v Elina Svitolina - 1.5 Elina Svitolina
- Kasatkina has been a player I have been following.
- 0-3 Svitolina in head to heads. Top 10 player too.
- Wins came in 2016, 2017 and 2018 on hard court.
- A world number 6 should be winning in 2 straight sets but the value is in laying Elina if she wins the first set. Why? Daria won in 3 sets v solid Muguruza recently.
Johanna Konta v Jelena Ostapenko - 1.63 Jelena
Aljaz Bedene v Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.77 Busta
Peter Gojowczyk v Fabio Fognini - 1.24 Fognini
- I did say yesterday that Foggy might get a shot from his home support.
- I am not sure form research will be useful here. Foggy beat Thiem yesterday and that was excellent form.
- I would enter this match expecting a Foggy fight back if Peter wins the first set.
Simona Halep v Madison Keys - 1.33 Halep
- The World Number 1 continues to impress.
- 1st v 19th.
- 5-1 Halep in head to heads.
- Madison has not had the best clay court form, 2 1st leg exits and 2 tie breaker wins last match.
- Halep should win with ease so let that be the simple angle.
Benoit Paire v Marin Cilic - 1.42 Cilic
Venus Williams v Anett Kontaveit - 1.68 Anett
Juan Martin Del Potro v David Goffin - 1.72 Del Potro
- 11th v 7th.
- 1-1 head to heads.
- Impressive Del Boy beating inform Tsitsipas in 2 straight sets.
- Recent losses for the Goff v Nadal and Edmund - we know Edmund has beaten Djokovic recently.
- Tough to call this one. In Barcelona, Goffin hit 3 3 setters on the way to the Barcelona semi-final. Expect a 3 setter today?
- I would be keener to lay Goffin if he wins the first set than Del Boy.
Maria Sakkari v Angelique Kerber - 1.54 Kerber
- What is it with these Greeks? Sakkari and Tsitsipas have been in solid form (Del Potro did beat Tsitsipas in a fight).
- 52nd v 21st in rankings.
- 2 3 setters from Sakkari this Rome tournament saw here beat top 10 Pliskova - we profited from that.
- Kerber retired in Stuttgart 2 matches ago - is that a signal that there is a niggle with Kerber?
- Tie breaker first match and 3 setter latterly suggests we lay the first set winner.
Rafael Nadal v Denis Shapovalov - 1.05 Nadal
- Nadal simply does not get tested on clay. Another 2-0 yesterday but I continue with my lay at 1.06.
Daria Gavrilova v Maria Sharapova - 1.3 Sharapova
Kyle Edmund v Alexander Zverev - 1.36 Zverev
- 50th v 4th.
- 6-3 7-6 last head to head in Zverev's favour.
- Final and quarter finals for Kyle on clay and he has beaten the likes of Goffin and Djokovic. Excellent form.
- Zverev a tough cookie on clay. Winner of the Munich and Madrid masters clay tournaments.
- Zverev I feel will win. Edmund may dig in his heels in the 2nd set if losing the first. So on this basis, lay the first set winner albeit knowing how ultra solid Zverev is on clay, actually winning 2 consecutive tournaments.