A quieter day today. I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook.
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
18:00 - Aston Villa v Burnley - 1.79 Aston Villa
- Aston Villa are still on my unreadable list I'm afraid. They seemingly cannot do any wrong away from home but at home are on a run of 3 consecutive losses, conceding 3-4-2 goals.
- If we take away the Man City result for Burnley (which was always going to threaten an anomalous result), Burnley have conceded 0-0-1-0 in the 4 matches around that Man City loss. Take that City away defeat, and away recently it is 0-0, 0-0, 0-1 win for Burnley. Worries regarding the goal scoring but a hint that Burnley are returning to their tough to beat selves.
- So we have an unreadable Villa playing a Burnley returning to their tough to beat best. I will leave this to the in-play stats.
20:00 - Sheff Utd - Man Utd - 1.5 Man Utd
Sheffield United - 20th
- All defeats bar a 1-1 draw with Fulham.
- Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
- 5 defeats and a draw at home.
- Conceded last 12 matches and last 6 at home.
- Failed to score in 4/6 home matches.
Man Utd - 9th
- 4 wins and a 0-0 last 5 matches.
- Man Utd are quite simply scoring 3+ goals away and are on an excellent run of 5/5 away wins this season.
- United have scored and conceded in every away match.
- 12/16 goals scored away came 2nd half.
- The usual United Modus Operandi away is to get themselves in all sorts of trouble at halftime, only to blitz their usual 3 goals and win. I am not sure Sheffield United will keep up their end of the bargain.
- United should feel confident of 3 points today. Will they score 3 goals again? Indeed will they score and concede away? Sheffield United have failed to score in 4/6 home matches. Their win is likely to have to wait.
ITALIAN SERIA A
19:45 - Roma v Torino - 1.44 Roma
Roma - 6th
- Only 2 defeats.
- Draw, Win, Win, Win, Draw at home.
- Failed to score in 2 of their last 3 matches but I would put that down to Europa League distraction.
- 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
- 100% wins v 10th and lower.
- 6 goals scored last 15 minutes of the first half at home.
Torino - 18th
- Only 1 win came v a poor Genoa.
- Only 1 clean sheet.
- Scored and conceded in 9 matches this season, and won only one of those matches.
- Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
- Only win away v 19th.
- Scored and conceded in all matches v the top 14, scoring and conceding 2+ goals in all bar 1 match. Watch out therefore for a Torino lead. It will be vulnerable.
- All 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- Torino have an amazing 2+ goal scoring record v the top 14, but all in vain. So embrace any Torino lead, even a 0-2 lead and have some confidence that their defence is as bad as their attack is good.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
BELGIAN JULIPER LEAGUE
19:45 - Mechelen v Club Brugge - 1.74 Club Brugge
Mechelen - 16th
- Only 3 wins.
- Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss recently.
- Scored and conceded last 9 matches and last 4 at home.
- 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
- 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
- All wins came v 15th and lower.
- Conceded 2 or 3 goals v the top 4.
- 15/17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Club Brugge - 1st
- 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 matches.
- Only 3 defeats, 2 were 1-0.
- 4 consecutive clean sheets.
- All defeats have come v the top 6.
- Clean sheets in 3 matches away v 11th and lower.
- I would have thought Club Brugge's odds would be shorter but then this Mechelen have a touch of the Torino's about them. An ability to consistently score 2+ goals v the top 4. The bad news is that their defence means those 2+ goals tend to be conceded and they go winless. Watch for that pattern today, although Club Brugge are keeping clean sheets of late.
- Mechelen do concede heavily 2nd half so if they lead at halftime, that is nowhere near being match over.
RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE
15:00 - FK Krasnodar v FC Ufa - 1.39 FK Krasnador
Krasnador - 8th
- 3 wins in 4 matches all came at home.
- 2 consecutive 5-0 home wins.
- Scored in their last 9 at home.
- No 0-0 this season.
- 100% wins v 7th and lower.
- 100% wins v 13th and lower.
Ufa - 15th
- 2 wins in 3 matches were 2 of only 3 wins all season.
- Only 3 clean sheets.
- 5 0-0's at halftime away but none at fulltime.
- Only 1 win home and away v the top 12.
- 14/19 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
- The market looks spot on. Expectation for a win to nil for Krasnador today. Do note the high % of 0-0 at halftime for Ufa, but no 0-0 at fulltime away.
15:00 - FC Khimki v Lokomotiv - 2.2 Lokomotiv
FC Khimki - 11th
- 4 wins and a 2-2 last 5 matches.
- 3 consecutive home wins.
- Failed to score in only 3 matches.
- 3 home wins were to nil, 2 were 1-0.
- Only 1 loss home v 6th and lower - 3/4 wins there were 1-0.
- 2-1 loss to Lokomotiv earlier this season.
- 6/9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Lokomotiv - 7th
- 3 defeats and a 0-0 last 4 away.
- 2-1 win v Khimki earlier this season.
- Win, Draw, Draw away v 9th and lower.
- 5/7 goals scored away came 1st half.
- Recent form is with Khimki. Head to head is with Lokomotiv who are also unbeaten away v 9th and lower.
- Both teams score a high % of goals 2nd half.
17:00 - Rostov v CSKA Moscow - 2.36 CSKA Moscow
Rostov - 5th
- 7 wins and 2 defeats last 11 matches.
- Win, Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home recently.
- 5 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
- 2-0 loss v CSKA earlier.
- Only played one of the top 4 at home, a 0-2 win v 1st.
- 6/8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
- 5/6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
CSKA Moscow - 3rd
- Only 2 defeats since 28th August 2020.
- 3 score draws and a loss last 4 matches.
- Lost last away match, only one of 2 defeats away.
- Not played 2nd-7th away. All wins away came v 10th and lower.
- Gaps in form cloud things here.
- Watch out for 2nd half goals if 0-0 at halftime.
- Logic suggests a side like CSKA with only 2 defeats since 28th August, deserves respect but note their wins have only come v 10th and lower.
17:00 - Akhmat Grozny v Rubin Kazan - 2.08 Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny - 10th
- 2 draws and 2 losses last 4 matches.
- Win, Win, Win, Draw, Draw, Loss at home recently.
- All defeats have come v the top 6.
- All wins at home v 8th and lower.
- 1-1 last head to head.
- 9/12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
Rubin Kazan - 9th
- 2 wins in 3 matches.
- Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Win away recently.
- No draw in 8 and in 9 away.
- Only 1 loss home and away v 10th and lower came away v 11th.
- Strange away form. Beating 1st, 3rd, 6th, 14th, 16th but losses v 7th-11th.
- A tricky match to read given Rubin can beat the top 3 away but lose to 7th-11th away and they play 10th today. Which Rubin turns up today?
- Akhmat's form v 8th and lower is solid and that is where we get the wins. Rubin, too, have only 1 loss v 11th and lower. I am slightly more taken by Akhmat's consistent winning v 8th and lower.
SWISS SUPER LEAGUE
17:15 - FC Vaduz v Lausanne - 2.12 Lausanne
FC Vaduz - 10th
- Bottom of the league.
- Only win came at home v 9th.
- 3-0 loss last head to head.
- 3 consecutive losses without scoring.
- Conceded last 10 matches.
- 7/11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
Lausanne - 8th
- Unbeaten home and away v 6th and lower.
- 4 defeats and a win last 5 matches. The win? Came v Vaduz.
- 5 goals conceded away last 15 minutes of matches.
- The recent head to head win for Lausanne was emphatic and stood out amongst defeats. Any reason to desert Lausanne here?
- Vaduz are vulnerable to 2nd half concessions.
19:30 - Servette v Sion - 1.72 Servette
Servette - 6th
- 2-0 loss last head to head.
- Only home loss v 7th.
- 3 wins in 4 matches.
- 4/5 goals scored at home came 2nd half - same with goals conceded.
Sion - 9th
- 4 consecutive defeats.
- No away win.
- 3 consecutive away defeats.
- 2+ goals conceded in all bar 1 away match.
- Sion's away form is so poor, conceding 2+ goals, that they look naturally opposable. The head to head is a worry though. Sion won it 2-0.
- Strong 2nd half goals trends for Servette.