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DRT Daily Research Bulletin, December 17, 2020

A quieter day today. I will do a review/preview video at DRT Facebook.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

18:00 - Aston Villa v Burnley - 1.79 Aston Villa

  • Aston Villa are still on my unreadable list I'm afraid. They seemingly cannot do any wrong away from home but at home are on a run of 3 consecutive losses, conceding 3-4-2 goals.
  • If we take away the Man City result for Burnley (which was always going to threaten an anomalous result), Burnley have conceded 0-0-1-0 in the 4 matches around that Man City loss. Take that City away defeat, and away recently it is 0-0, 0-0, 0-1 win for Burnley. Worries regarding the goal scoring but a hint that Burnley are returning to their tough to beat selves.
  • So we have an unreadable Villa playing a Burnley returning to their tough to beat best. I will leave this to the in-play stats.

20:00 - Sheff Utd - Man Utd - 1.5 Man Utd

Sheffield United - 20th

  • All defeats bar a 1-1 draw with Fulham.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 5 defeats and a draw at home.
  • Conceded last 12 matches and last 6 at home.
  • Failed to score in 4/6 home matches.

Man Utd - 9th

  • 4 wins and a 0-0 last 5 matches.
  • Man Utd are quite simply scoring 3+ goals away and are on an excellent run of 5/5 away wins this season.
  • United have scored and conceded in every away match.
  • 12/16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The usual United Modus Operandi away is to get themselves in all sorts of trouble at halftime, only to blitz their usual 3 goals and win. I am not sure Sheffield United will keep up their end of the bargain.
  • United should feel confident of 3 points today. Will they score 3 goals again? Indeed will they score and concede away? Sheffield United have failed to score in 4/6 home matches. Their win is likely to have to wait.

ITALIAN SERIA A

19:45 - Roma v Torino - 1.44 Roma

Roma - 6th

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Win, Draw at home.
  • Failed to score in 2 of their last 3 matches but I would put that down to Europa League distraction.
  • 3 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 100% wins v 10th and lower.
  • 6 goals scored last 15 minutes of the first half at home.

Torino - 18th

  • Only 1 win came v a poor Genoa.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Scored and conceded in 9 matches this season, and won only one of those matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only win away v 19th.
  • Scored and conceded in all matches v the top 14, scoring and conceding 2+ goals in all bar 1 match. Watch out therefore for a Torino lead. It will be vulnerable.
  • All 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Torino have an amazing 2+ goal scoring record v the top 14, but all in vain. So embrace any Torino lead, even a 0-2 lead and have some confidence that their defence is as bad as their attack is good.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

BELGIAN JULIPER LEAGUE

19:45 - Mechelen v Club Brugge - 1.74 Club Brugge

Mechelen - 16th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Loss, Draw, Draw, Loss recently.
  • Scored and conceded last 9 matches and last 4 at home.
  • 2+ goals scored last 3 at home.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • All wins came v 15th and lower.
  • Conceded 2 or 3 goals v the top 4.
  • 15/17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Club Brugge - 1st

  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 matches.
  • Only 3 defeats, 2 were 1-0.
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • All defeats have come v the top 6.
  • Clean sheets in 3 matches away v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • I would have thought Club Brugge's odds would be shorter but then this Mechelen have a touch of the Torino's about them. An ability to consistently score 2+ goals v the top 4. The bad news is that their defence means those 2+ goals tend to be conceded and they go winless. Watch for that pattern today, although Club Brugge are keeping clean sheets of late.
  • Mechelen do concede heavily 2nd half so if they lead at halftime, that is nowhere near being match over.

RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE

15:00 - FK Krasnodar v FC Ufa - 1.39 FK Krasnador

Krasnador - 8th

  • 3 wins in 4 matches all came at home.
  • 2 consecutive 5-0 home wins.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • No 0-0 this season.
  • 100% wins v 7th and lower.
  • 100% wins v 13th and lower.

Ufa - 15th

  • 2 wins in 3 matches were 2 of only 3 wins all season.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away but none at fulltime.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 12.
  • 14/19 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market looks spot on. Expectation for a win to nil for Krasnador today. Do note the high % of 0-0 at halftime for Ufa, but no 0-0 at fulltime away.

15:00 - FC Khimki v Lokomotiv - 2.2 Lokomotiv

FC Khimki - 11th

  • 4 wins and a 2-2 last 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 3 home wins were to nil, 2 were 1-0.
  • Only 1 loss home v 6th and lower - 3/4 wins there were 1-0.
  • 2-1 loss to Lokomotiv earlier this season.
  • 6/9 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Lokomotiv - 7th

  • 3 defeats and a 0-0 last 4 away.
  • 2-1 win v Khimki earlier this season.
  • Win, Draw, Draw away v 9th and lower.
  • 5/7 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Recent form is with Khimki. Head to head is with Lokomotiv who are also unbeaten away v 9th and lower.
  • Both teams score a high % of goals 2nd half.

17:00 - Rostov v CSKA Moscow - 2.36 CSKA Moscow

Rostov - 5th

  • 7 wins and 2 defeats last 11 matches.
  • Win, Win, Loss, Win, Loss at home recently.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home, only once at fulltime.
  • 2-0 loss v CSKA earlier.
  • Only played one of the top 4 at home, a 0-2 win v 1st.
  • 6/8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 5/6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

CSKA Moscow - 3rd

  • Only 2 defeats since 28th August 2020.
  • 3 score draws and a loss last 4 matches.
  • Lost last away match, only one of 2 defeats away.
  • Not played 2nd-7th away. All wins away came v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Gaps in form cloud things here.
  • Watch out for 2nd half goals if 0-0 at halftime.
  • Logic suggests a side like CSKA with only 2 defeats since 28th August, deserves respect but note their wins have only come v 10th and lower.

17:00 - Akhmat Grozny v Rubin Kazan - 2.08 Akhmat Grozny

Akhmat Grozny - 10th

  • 2 draws and 2 losses last 4 matches.
  • Win, Win, Win, Draw, Draw, Loss at home recently.
  • All defeats have come v the top 6.
  • All wins at home v 8th and lower.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 9/12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Rubin Kazan - 9th

  • 2 wins in 3 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Loss, Win away recently.
  • No draw in 8 and in 9 away.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 10th and lower came away v 11th.
  • Strange away form. Beating 1st, 3rd, 6th, 14th, 16th but losses v 7th-11th.

Conclusions

  • A tricky match to read given Rubin can beat the top 3 away but lose to 7th-11th away and they play 10th today. Which Rubin turns up today?
  • Akhmat's form v 8th and lower is solid and that is where we get the wins. Rubin, too, have only 1 loss v 11th and lower. I am slightly more taken by Akhmat's consistent winning v 8th and lower.
 

SWISS SUPER LEAGUE

17:15 - FC Vaduz v Lausanne - 2.12 Lausanne

FC Vaduz - 10th

  • Bottom of the league.
  • Only win came at home v 9th.
  • 3-0 loss last head to head.
  • 3 consecutive losses without scoring.
  • Conceded last 10 matches.
  • 7/11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Lausanne - 8th

  • Unbeaten home and away v 6th and lower.
  • 4 defeats and a win last 5 matches. The win? Came v Vaduz.
  • 5 goals conceded away last 15 minutes of matches.

Conclusions

  • The recent head to head win for Lausanne was emphatic and stood out amongst defeats. Any reason to desert Lausanne here?
  • Vaduz are vulnerable to 2nd half concessions.

19:30 - Servette v Sion - 1.72 Servette

Servette - 6th

  • 2-0 loss last head to head.
  • Only home loss v 7th.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 4/5 goals scored at home came 2nd half - same with goals conceded.

Sion - 9th

  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • No away win.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • 2+ goals conceded in all bar 1 away match.

Conclusions

  • Sion's away form is so poor, conceding 2+ goals, that they look naturally opposable. The head to head is a worry though. Sion won it 2-0.
  • Strong 2nd half goals trends for Servette.