The Europa League is back tonight. Tonight's matches are second leg matches. Teams will take their cues from the first leg result. As with the Champions League, there is not necessarily any strong statistical angles into the matches. These matches and their trading angles are more reliant on personal opinion. Besiktas, Anderlecht and Man Utd are the 3 matches I am interested in today. League football returns tomorrow and I can have stronger angles and more statistical-led research.
18:00 - FK Krasnodar v Celta Vigo - 2.52 FK
- 2-1 to Celta Vigo from the first leg saw a 90th minute winner. Still, they conceded that away goal.
- Note the odds. 2.52 suggests that the market cannot split the teams.
- A 1-0 will do for FK Krasnador this evening with the away goal assuring qualification to the next round.
- Celta Vigo need to score first this evening.
- On the face of it, FK Krasnador, with only 1 win in 7 Europa League matches, don't seem to be fully wound up for this competition. Or they are simply not up to it.
- In order to get here, Celta Vigo lost 0-1 at home to Shakhtar Donetsk and scored a 90th minute penalty to gain a 0-1 in the second leg. That form, in and of itself, is under-whelming.
- No wonder the market has priced this match as it has. I have no angles. Do you?
18:00 - Besiktas v Olympiakos - 1.7 Besiktas
- It's 1-1 from the first leg. Besiktas have the away goal.
- Besiktas have been installed as favourites this evening. Both teams have scored in all 3 of Besiktas' Europa League matches since they left the Champions League.
- Besiktas go through with a 0-0 today.
- There is some collateral form. Olympiakos drew 0-0 and lost 0-1 v Hapoel Beer Sheva in the Champions League. This is a Hapoel side that Besiktas beat 1-3 and 2-1 in the Europa League.
- Is that enough to side with the market today?
- Olympiakos's previous Europa League form away suggests to me that they are here under sufferance.
- As I said above, these matches are based on personal opinion rather than the stats. I do think Besiktas can get a positive result today. I would lay Olympiakos if Olympiakos score first.
18:00 - Genk v Gent - 2.42 Genk
- 2-5 to Genk from the first leg should see them through this evening.
- This is not a must win for Genk. They can afford to lose 0-3 and still progress on the away goal rule.
- This is simply a must not lose 0-4 for Genk today.
- Over 2.5 goals looks an obvious play here if 0-0 for a while only really based on Gent's need for goals.
20:05 - Mgladbach v Schalke - 2.2 Mgladbach
- In head to heads in all competitions, the home side tends not to lose.
- it was 1-1 from the first leg of the Europa League with 9th v 11th in the German Bundesliga.
- Slight advantage Mgladbach today with that away goal. A 0-0 or 1-0 sees Mgladbach through in the simplest way.
- Indeed a 0-1 sees Schalke through in the simplest way.
- 4 clean sheets and a loss to Red Bull away for Schalke in the Europa League. Of course a clean sheet will be very welcome today.
- Yet another Europa League that I cannot read at all, nor do I have a personal opinion on the match.
20:05 - Anderlecht v APOEL - 1.62 Anderlecht
- Anderlecht come into this second leg with home advantage and a 0-1 lead with that precious away goal.
- Only 1 win in 12 away Europa League matches for APOEL sees 8 losses in 9 matches away. This is compelling is it not for opposing APOEL this evening.
- 2-2-2-2-1-0-3-2-3 goals conceded away in those matches. Anderlecht are certainly capable of scoring.
- 3-3-6-2-2 goals scored by Anderlecht in recent home Europa League matches. They scored against good yardsticks such as Mainz, St Etienne and Zenit.
- This is a definite shortlist match for me given APOEL's dire away record in the Europa League. We might see a tactical APOEL given they need a 0-1 to continue the match into extra time but Anderlecht have been scoring 2+ goals v better sides than APOEL.
20:05 - Man Utd v Rostov - 1.28 Man Utd
- 1-1 from the first leg of this Europa League match sees advantage Man Utd with the away goal.
- Man Utd have been impressive at home in the Europa League. 0-1-0-0 conceded in their last 4 home matches, scoring 1-4-4-3 goals.
- 4-0 for Rostov v Sparta Prague, and 2 consecutive 1-1 draws.
- Rostov need to score first today because if Man Utd score first, Rostov will need to score 2 in order to qualify.
- This is another shortlisted match for me today along with Anderlecht, and Besiktas's matches.
- At their best, Man Utd could score 3/4 goals today.
- I must lay Rostov if Rostov scores first.
20:05 - Roma v Lyon - 1.77 Roma
- The market expects Roma to take this second leg Europa League tie seriously. 4-2 to Lyon from the first leg sees Roma with 2 away goals.
- A 2-0 win for Roma today sees them qualify in the simplest way.
- Lyon can afford a 1-0 defeat and with the scoring of an away goal must be confident of qualifying. 15 goals in 3 matches for Lyon. They are continuing the goalscoring of French Ligue 1 into this Europa League.
- Roma have not really been tested in the Europa League but once they push into better class opponents (Villareal, Lyon) they lose.
- I am not sure that Roma are 100% committed to the Europa League. Lyon are a dangerous opponent at the moment 7-5-1-4-4 goals scored by Lyon recently in all competitions.
20:05 - Ajax v FC Copenhagen - 1.83 Ajax
- 2-1 to Copenhagen from the first leg in the Europa League and I would have thought Ajax would be too strong for a Danish Super Liga side.
- Ajax at home in the Europa League are very impressive. 4 consecutive wins now.
- Copenhagen have beaten and drawn v Ludogorets and beat Ajax 2-1.
- Only 1 recent win away was v Ludogorets for Copenhagen.
- Another match I cannot get an angle into.
- In simplistic terms, Ajax need a 1-0 in order to qualify. FC Copenhagen go through with a 0-0 and really twist the knife if scoring their away goal first.
- Side with the market? Ajax not to lose?