Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I have done a DRT review/preview video and hope to be about at 17:00 to pass on any trades. I wish I had done that yesterday as it was an extremely profitable evening.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

18:00 - Everton v Aston Villa - 2.05 Everton

  • 3 matches remain and it has always remained 'must win' for Aston Villa.
  • Mid table mediocrity for Everton.
  • Aston Villa will remain bottom 3 with a win today.
  • Everton's only recent defeats have come v Tottenham and Wolves away. At home Everton remain unbeaten in 10 matches, and postlockdown, Draw, Win, Draw.
  • Aston Villa's only win since 1st February saw them beat Palace last match. Away, they have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches and have an unhealthy habit of conceding 2nd half goals so watch if that shows itself today.
  • I do fear for Aston Villa today given the calibre of side Everton lose to (i.e. top 8). If 0-0 at halftime, do remember Aston Villa have conceded 26 goals 2nd half away from home. Ouch!

18:00 - Leicester v Sheffield Utd - 2.00 Leicester

  • That's all Leicester need! A Sheffield United with a 2nd wind, thanks to the manager bringing on Sean Bean 2nd half to save the day.
  • Leicester are 4th on 59 points, and have Southampton to thank that they are still 4th placed. Saints turned a United 3 point win into a 1 point draw. Man Utd are on the same points as Leicester. Wolverhampton are slowly adrift in the top 4 battle but are not out of it yet.
  • And Sheffield United are only 5 points shy of 4th and 5th spot. A win today against a top 4 side sees them 2 points shy and on Leicester's coat-tails.
  • Post lockdown, Leicester have only beaten Crystal Palace. 0-0 and 3-0 at home post lockdown. Contrast this with the Blades. 3 wins and a 1-1. I suppose Leicester will be glad that those 3 Sheffield United wins came at home.
  • Post lockdown, away from home, the Blades have scored 0-0-0-1 goals.
  • Angles? A must win more for Sheffield United as they play a top 4 team. Negatives for their superb recent form is that it came at home and away, they are yet to score those important 2nd goals. Leicester though look poor post lockdown but in 2 sample post-lockdown home matches, have kept a clean sheet.
  • An argument for backing 0-0 pre match and hoping defences are on top?

20:15 - Crystal Palace v Man Utd - 1.33 Man Utd

  • Man Utd were these odds at home to Southampton last match. Saints scored first, Man Utd led 2-1 by halftime but let slip 2 points by fulltime. 2-2 it ended.
  • Man Utd are equal on points with Leicester and must look to equal or exceed what they do.
  • Man Utd must also win to keep the Wolves from the door. Only 1 win for Palace post lockdown sees 5 consecutive defeats and a hope, from Man  Utd, that they continue to perform this poorly and fail to score as they have done in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Man Utd noticeably remain unbeaten since 1st February. And post lockdown have scored at least 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches. They are a trustworthy side at the moment if they concede first. They did so against Bournemouth, Southampton and Tottenham and remained unbeaten.
  • Palace's recent inability to score really should see Man Utd win.

20:15 - Southampton v Brighton - 2.2 Southampton

  • Southampton's season may be over, but they are not. Brighton are 5 points clear of relegation so a win today is priceless.
  • Southampton have recently beaten relegation battling Norwich and Watford and also taken points from Manchester City and Man Utd, so despite having nothing to play for, they remain very competitive, much to Brighton's annoyance.
  • Brighton's post-lockdown run-in has been horrendous. Arsenal, Leicester, Man Utd, Liverpool and Man City. All top clubs with plenty to play for.
  • Away from home for Brighton recently it has been 0-0, 0-0, 0-1 win v Norwich.
  • Angles? We cannot discount a performance from Southampton today despite this being a meaningless match. I do note Brighton have, away, been 0-0 or 0-1 and that might be a pattern. Back 0-0 pre match?

SPANISH LA LIGA

  • 2 matches remain this season.

17:30 - Eibar v Valladolid - 2.26 Eibar

  • 2 matches remain this season and these 2 are safe from relegation. Nothing I can see to play for.

20:00

Sociedad v Sevilla - 2.52 Sociedad

  • Sevilla are guaranteed Champions League football. Sociedad are on equal points with 6th and 3 points shy of 5th so still have the incentive of European Club Competition.
  • Sociedad have scored and conceded in all bar 2 post-lockdown matches with wins v Espanyol and Villareal.
  • Sevilla have been unbeaten for 13 matches and are not quite the side you want to meet when you need points.
  • 4 consecutive Sevilla wins saw 3 clean sheets.
  • Sociedad have scored 2 goals last 2 at home but won only one of those matches.
  • Angles? Sevilla are in superb form and would be the choice on that form but there is that question mark about them that it is job done this season. They cannot be bullied out of a top 4 spot. Sociedad are the team with points required but are the team without the form as good as Sevilla's.
  • Sociedad have been scoring and conceding of late without converting enough to wins.

Barcelona v Osasuna - 1.17 Barcelona

  • Osasuna's season is over. Mid table. No relegation worries. No European competition hopes. Barcelona must win tonight and hope that Real Madrid do not.
  • They are 4 points shy of Real Madrid with a possible 6 points remaining.
  • Post-lockdown, Barca are unbeaten but 3 draws, 2 of which were 2-2, seems to have handed the title to Real Madrid.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0 wins suggests that if this is tight, Barcelona may grind out an unimpressive win. The odds though suggest 3/4 goals and a goal or two before halftime.
  • Loss, Win, Win, Loss away for Osasuna. Their defeat v Atl Madrid, at 0-5,is probably the template for expectations today.

Mallorca v Granada - 2.34 Mallorca

  • Granada can get top 6 but it is unrealistic. Their season is over. Not so for Mallorca. They sit 2nd bottom on 32 points. Safety at the time of writing is 36 points. It is a simple equation. Mallorca must win their remaining 2 matches and hope that other results fall their way.
  • A draw and 2 consecutive home wins for Mallorca v Celta Vigo and Levante may give them belief this evening.
  • Granada though have been good away post-lockdown. Draw, Draw, Win, Win, scoring 2-0-2-3 goals.
  • This is another match where the team needing points face a side in good scoring form but with nothing to play for.

Real Madrid v Villarreal - 1.44 Real Madrid

  • It is simple. Real Madrid win, they are Champions.
  • Villareal still need to nurture their 5th spot from invaders in 6th and 7th place so have plenty invested in this match.
  • 9 consecutive wins for Real Madrid. 4 penalties awarded in recent matches. 4 consecutive home clean sheet wins.
  • Villareal's 2 recent losses came at home, one v Barcelona and that may suggest that the top 2 are a step too far for Villareal.
  • 4 consecutive away wins for Villareal.
  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met. How Barcelona will hope for a similar display from these 2.

Celta Vigo v Levante - 1.65 Celta Vigo

  • Levante's season is over. Celta Vigo have the cushion of 4 points to the relegation 3 with a possible 6 remaining. A win guarantees their La Liga future.
  • Post lockdown, 2 of Celta's 3 losses came away from home. Win, Draw, Draw, Draw, at home saw notable draws against Barcelona and Atl Madrid and that kind of form really should see them get the required points v Levante.
  • No win in 4 for Levante, saw 2 draws and 2 losses.
  • Interestingly, Celta lost 3-1 to Levante earlier this season but this match today is purely about Celta getting what's needed against a side whose season is over.

Getafe v Atletico Madrid - 2.4 Atl Madrid

  • Atl Madrid are guaranteed Champions League football. The only motivator in their remaining matches is whether 3rd place is of interest.
  • Getafe are 6th so have the carrot of European club competition to motivate them.
  • Getafe have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches, all away mind you and 2 consecutive away 0-0's.
  • Only 1 win in 6 home matches is a concern for Getafe.
  • Atl Madrid are unbeaten since 8th February 2020. 3 draws away post-lockdown along with 2 wins away.
  • 2.4 the favourite tells us that the better side, Atl Madrid, have nothing really to play for. Getafe, the side who failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches, are the side seeking the win.

Valencia v Espanyol - 1.61 Valencia

  • This looks a dead rubber match. Espanyol will finish bottom. Valencia will not be reaching a top 6 place.

Betis v Alaves - 2.24 Betis

  • 13th v 17th. Alaves have a 4 point cushion to the bottom 3 so any additional points tonight will help them. A win of course assures they survive. Betis have nothing to play for.
  • Betis 2 wins post lockdown came at home. They play an Alaves side failing to score in all bar 2 post-lockdown matches. 6 losses and a draw last 7 matches for Alaves.
  • Angles? Tough to call what with the side needing the points having trouble even scoring! On form, Alaves are layable if leading on that basis.

ITALIAN SERIA A

18:30 - Torino v Genoa - 2.4 Torino

Torino - 16th

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Only 2 wins since 18th January 2020.
  • Draw, Win, Loss, Win at home recently.
  • Not had a 0-0 at halftime post-lockdown.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • 0-1 win v Genoa last time these 2 met.
  • Only 3 losses at home v 6th and lower did come v 14th, 18th and 20th.

Genoa - 17th

  • Only 1 win in 6 came last match at home v SPAL.
  • Unbeaten in 6 away albeit 4 draws.
  • 2 consecutive away 2-2 draws.
  • Scored last 11 matches.
  • 2+ goals scored in each of their last 5 away.
  • All draws away v 13th and lower.
  • 62% of goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. On seasonal form, lay Torino if they score first as they have scored and conceded last 5 matches and also Genoa have had 100% draws away v 13th and lower.

20:45 - SPAL v Inter - 1.32 Inter

SPAL - 20th

  • 11 points to safety for SPAL who are bottom.
  • Only 1 win since 25th January was a 0-1 v Parma.
  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • No win in 11 at home, conceding in each of those matches.
  • 2-1 loss v Inter earlier.
  • Scored and conceded all home matches v the top 7, winning only 1 match.
  • 65% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Inter Milan - 4th

  • Look a very tradable post-lockdown team. Conceded first v Sassuolo without losing. Conceded first v Parma, won. Conceded first v Verona, unbeaten. Conceded first v Torino. Won.
  • In 6 of 7 matches, Inter Milan scored 2 goals at least.
  • No 0-0 at halftime for Inter this post-lockdown.
  • 11 wins and a draw home and away v 14th and lower.
  • 13 of 17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Trust Inter Milan if they concede first. They tend not to lose.
  • Watch out for a 2 goal haul at least from Inter.